Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[markyo]

After this morning i am now dreading the onset of summer,so fresh and clean this morning such a sharp contrast to the stench you get from a hot summers morning after a humid night,no pleasure in that at all i'm afraid.

[stainesbloke]

7 minutes ago, markyo said:

After this morning i am now dreading the onset of summer,so fresh and clean this morning such a sharp contrast to the stench you get from a hot summers morning after a humid night,no pleasure in that at all i'm afraid.

Haha, long time to wait for that! I can't wait for hot summer days and warm nights, my favourite season after Spring. Agree with you about the current weather though, it's a beautiful spell here with very hard frosts and cold sunny days. Some snow would top it off nicely but cannot complain at all, lovely.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Polar Maritime]

I certainly agree with Newberryone in the MOD, Lets have some gales/storms to at least add interest after such a bland winter so far.

[markyo]

22 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Haha, long time to wait for that! I can't wait for hot summer days and warm nights, my favourite season after Spring. Agree with you about the current weather though, it's a beautiful spell here with very hard frosts and cold sunny days. Some snow would top it off nicely but cannot complain at all, lovely.

About time you had some good weather,you've suffered a lot in the summer months with the crap from the Atlantic. Enjoy and i've been very jealous! Just had cloud filled crap up north. 

[Evening thunder]

13 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Could be a lot worse, like when a lot of the UK's homes were underwater, flood misery, we could be seeing charts like this!

Lol I think you've said that to pretty much every post saying the weather's boring this winter 

[shotski]

3 hours ago, knocker said:

I ask myself whether there is any significance, towards the end of the GEFS anomalies, to the removal of the Russian lobe of the vortex, some retrogression of of the Atlantic trough and a rewed surge of positive anomalies to the N/NE?

In the mean time do not forget the trend is your friend

Mmmmm checks anomaly charts posted ten days ago....... 

And to be fair it's spot on 

Edited January 22, 2017 by shotski

[Spikey M]

it's been lovely here for the past week. minus temps each night, low fugures all day. Sunny, crisp and raw. But still... meh.

[TropicThunder]

It's actually been a pretty cold winter here, must be getting on for nearly two weeks since we had a night where the temperature didn't drop below freezing and we had plenty of harsh frosts in December as well.  Being right on the coast that's not to be sniffed at. Certainly better than recent winters in that respect, just sadly missing any meaningful snow yet again, although at least I briefly saw some falling snow just over a week ago.

Still time for something more interesting heading into February although I'm not too optimistic.  Seems like we just need so many things to fall into place that it's inevitable something always scuppers our chances.

[alr1970]

13 hours ago, 78/79 said:

Can't complain about the last few days, brilliant sunshine , and  frosty, 100 times  better than the usual mild Atlantic driven crap that we are usually saddled with around here.

Oh, I'd be delighted with that, cold, bright winter's days really lift the spirits. But here in the NW we've had day after day of gloom.

Same here today, with not a breath of wind to give the hope it might blow away. We do have the tiniest amount of snow falling, about 1 flake per square metre per minute.

[Northern Sky]

1 hour ago, alr1970 said:

Oh, I'd be delighted with that, cold, bright winter's days really lift the spirits. But here in the NW we've had day after day of gloom.

Same here today, with not a breath of wind to give the hope it might blow away. We do have the tiniest amount of snow falling, about 1 flake per square metre per minute.

Same here in Leeds, incessant gloom, chilly at times but never that cold. There have been milder winters but I would think there have been very few that were more boring than this one. We had a day of lying snow in November and I joked at the time saying this might be it for winter! Hopefully Feb will see some interest but there is nothing in the models to suggest anything of note as yet.

[knocker]

And to ours

 

[SLAMMER]

its been a cool winter and lots of frosts in certain areas.

 

presume people prefer the wind and rain so they can say which it was cold and settled?

[Anon90]

Next winter/ following winters the forum activity is going lowered in general due to little or no expectation that anything will come off,  the only thing that reverse that particular trend is we end getting something akin to the cold spell's/snow falls of the early 2009 to late 2010 period which I can't see happening.

Edited January 22, 2017 by Anon90

[law of averages]

People bang on about not being COLD, well to me this winter so far feels like a 70's winter in that it's cold n dry ( better than the dross we had last yrs )...and not much if any snow but it is cold and been very cold at times and is expected to stay cold for the foreseeable...and only expected to be mild than it is now, when or if the pattern changes!!

Some have even mentioned global warming?? ( I've never been convinced about it at all )... is the deep n brutal cold, snow in europe down to north africa down to global warming, NO!! Some of you who've said this must be below the age of 35/40yrs...because the summer of 1976 was the hottest and longest summer I can remember... and since 2007 we've had more cold n snow winters, than the last 25/30yrs combined...on global warming it as supposedly peaked 10yrs ago and I am more inclined to believe in patterns, in what weather patterns from what bits of history we are able to read...similar patterns are there for all to see, mild winters, cold winters, very mild winters and even brutal cold winters to our shores...we all know because of the jet stream we are in mild climate ( ie palm trees in ayr, torquay and west coast of eire...should tell us that it's mild ) but there's no rulebook to our weather but patterns...I read an article recently that 1900s ish to 1940s ish was a warm pattern, 1940s ish to 1980s ish was a cool pattern...so if it was to follow 1980s ish to 2020s ish should be a warm pattern which we've been through...a dr/professor John Hansen of nasa said in the 1970s he expected global cooling but by the 80s he changed to global warming, I wonder if, if he's still alive...what he  thinks now!! Also another article I read on the BBC said artic sea ice hadn't changed at all in the last 100yrs!! People have there own opinions...and I'm in no doubt some will say a lot against what I've wrote here...but I do think patterns are there!! only time will tell

Also we know the weather can and will change at the drop of an hat...so the charts at the moment don't show cold n snow that some including myself crave...there's plenty winter left yet...Feb is usually the coldest month, maybe just maybe the SSW will help and play ball...nobody can say weeks on end are going to mild or cold because a chart is computer generated, so those who are more a lot more knowledgeable than myself...please don't read to much in them, 2 or 3 days down the line won't be the same as they show today

Just my thoughts on this great forum 

Quote

 

Ps don't know why the quote box is there??

Edited January 22, 2017 by law of averages

[The Enforcer]

On 21 January 2017 at 18:35, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

January tends to be like that now! happened to me on friday 13th, Arctic air remained, full thaw

I can beat that: Saturday 14th, Arctic air in place, precipitation in arctic flow, rain.

[pegg24]

What I did notice on country file which made me laugh the coldest day for my area is Thursday due to a cold southerly wind coming from Europe never seen that before.  Also remember few days ago it saying by Thursday up to 8c. Now suppose to be 2c so it can change just think we are stuck in the cold dry pattern which for me is next best thing to cold and snowy.  But each to there own if we don't get snow by end February let's have a warm spring but know it won't happen. 

[shotski]

8 minutes ago, pegg24 said:

What I did notice on country file which made me laugh the coldest day for my area is Thursday due to a cold southerly wind coming from Europe never seen that before.  Also remember few days ago it saying by Thursday up to 8c. Now suppose to be 2c so it can change just think we are stuck in the cold dry pattern which for me is next best thing to cold and snowy.  But each to there own if we don't get snow by end February let's have a warm spring but know it won't happen. 

LOL those must be the warm zephyrs on Thursday, about time. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

43 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

I can beat that: Saturday 14th, Arctic air in place, precipitation in arctic flow, rain.

Not technically Arctic air, milder air was moving in from the west, can see Arctic flow now more Atlantic, turned quite mild in the west, nowadays it has to be true Arctic for snow, this chart in 90's though may have produced leading edge snow

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Not technically Arctic air, milder air was moving in from the west, can see Arctic flow now more Atlantic, turned quite mild in the west, nowadays it has to be true Arctic for snow, this chart in 90's though may have produced leading edge snow

Depends on the dewpoints and uppers etc. not what year it is. Look at the 850hPa temperatures for that day for example and they were only around -4C, and as no real cold air had preceded it for any length of time, it has a long shot to get snow falling. We're perfectly capable of leading edge snow from this setup with sufficient uppers and surface conditions.

[law of averages]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

It never ceases to amaze me how often I'm reminded of Daniel Patrick Moynihan when browsing this forum.

" everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts " 

[Chief Wiggam]

What's not to like with weather like this (taken yesterday).  So warm at 3pm that outer layers came off and a glorious sunny afternoon 

[Buzz]

Somebody needs to start handing out straws in the model output forum, apparently some members need a few more to clutch at.

[Don]

As much as I've enjoyed the harsh frosts of the last few days, I think it's getting to the stage now that we are very unlikely to get any notable cold and snow this winter, with the models backing away from a SSW.  This winter just doesn't want to play ball!

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

As much as I've enjoyed the harsh frosts of the last few days, I think it's getting to the stage now that we are very unlikely to get any notable cold and snow this winter, with the models backing away from a SSW.  This winter just doesn't want to play ball!

It's not happened yet!

don't the strat charts reflect the models?

plus it is only 23rd jan,plenty of time yet