Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Anon90]

The west based -NAO/milder atlantic  weather looks more or less nailed now, it's a pity that the same can rarely be said that about cold weather.

[Tonyinhampshire]

2 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

 

Like lol cold in the most SW tip of Europe but not UK

You forgot to mention North Africa too !!

[cheese]

No snow or cold for the UK, good news for tender plants and wildlife. If you have any palms in your garden they'll be very happy again this year.

Edited January 15, 2017 by cheese

[ArHu3]

27 minutes ago, cheese said:

No snow or cold for the UK, good news for tender plants and wildlife. If you have any palms in your garden they'll be very happy again this year.

And good news for mosquitos, wasps and other pests

[knocker]

But surely the eradication of cold loving pests is to be welcomed.

[shotski]

13 minutes ago, knocker said:

But surely the eradication of cold loving pests is to be welcomed.

I like a good cold spell, it tends to put paid to unwelcome germs. 

[swipe]

32 minutes ago, shotski said:

I like a good cold spell, it tends to put paid to unwelcome germs. 

I don't, as I don't have central heating. not very nice waking up to a 6C bedroom and bathroom.

[cheese]

1 hour ago, ArHu3 said:

And good news for mosquitos, wasps and other pests

You take the good with the bad. The UK is one step closer to being a snow-free zone! Soon, Inverness will be growing date palms and manatees will be swimming down the Thames. This is our future guys, embrace it.

Edited January 15, 2017 by cheese

[March]

We can already grow fairly tender plants. I live in rural Beds and -5C is about as cold as it gets. I guess our winters will become more Isle of Scilly like in 50 years with few frosts even!

[swipe]

2 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

And good news for mosquitos, wasps and other pests

The cold doesn't kill mosquitos. Try a summer vacation in Alaska.

[weather_it_will]

The current models are not showing any more high snow risks, and temperatures not exceptionally cold.

No Ice days this winter, so I do think it's game over for this winter.

 

 

 

 

[Mark wheeler]

Just popped in here because I wanted to moan about the weather . Good now that's done I feel a lot better .           

[Walsall Wood Snow]

Although it may please us as cold and especially snow fans, it should be remembered (at least here where Artic temperatures aren't exactly normal or necessary) that extremely cold temperatures are actually destructive and a hindrance to life, and that nature is probably far more comfortable to present conditions than it was in a Winter like 1962/63. In fact it would probably be the case that if this island was uninhabited by humans and their modern standard of living, with the rather unextreme climate that it is noted for, it would probably be something of a paradise for a lot of its living and even now extinct native creatures. In fact I would venture that long ago that colonisation of native Britain by humans was an attractive prospect due to its lack of extreme temperatures in either direction as well as its fairly wet climate, which for the most part prevented drought and gave it a fertile appeal. Of course extremes were and are always possible, but infrequent enough to make living conditions easier than more continental lands. As extreme weather fans living in the relative comfort of the modern world this may seem a bit of a bore, but to our much more primitive ancestors who lived much harder lives this probably would have been quite appealing. Of course I'm only referring to the interglacial period here, but for everyday life it probably would have been more comfortable and naturally productive here than for many of their continental cousins who would have had to tackle the effects more frequently of very extreme temperatures and water shortages than here.

[cheese]

3 hours ago, swipe said:

The cold doesn't kill mosquitos. Try a summer vacation in Alaska.

Or the Canadian prairies. Mosquitoes galore. Way worse than Florida.

[Woollymummy]

Or Scotland. Midge bites are way worse than mosquito bites 

in my experience

[knocker]

A brief return of one old friend and perhaps a longer one for another as downstream energy distribution cranks up the thermal gradient once more.

But still looking on the bright side

Edited January 16, 2017 by knocker

[knocker]

 

[Richard Taylor]

11 hours ago, ArHu3 said:

And good news for mosquitos, wasps and other pests

Is it though? I read somewhere queen wasps need a cold winter to hibernate properly. Too warm, & they come out too early, there's insufficient food & they die off. Then again, to some (not gardeners!) that might be good news!

[Evening thunder]

Some of our wildlife prefers a colder winter for a proper dormancy period (e.g. any hibernators such as hedgehogs, dormice, bumblebees). Much of our native flora came across from the continent and can cope with much lower temperatures than we get.
Of course, some wildlife prefers or has got used to milder conditions too, so it depends on the species as to what they prefer.

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

But the real cold stays in E Europe, most of Spain will have max temps of double figures and France will be above freezing too, nothing overly dramatic.

Hmm I dunno,

Much of France is shown below freezing by day on the GFS, with hard frosts at night for the entire of France and much of Iberia. Lyon's forecast, for example, looks just beautiful http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2996944 compared to the near endless cloud here.
 

[knocker]

Today's quote

"The wise are instructed by reason, average minds by experience, the stupid by necessity and the brute by instinct".
 

 

[Tonyinhampshire]

Well still waiting for the for the front loaded amazingly potential winter of cold. The only amazing thing we have had in Hampshire is constant mist, cool and cloud though we had 1 inch of snow in the mega 1 day cold event last Week which is more than the last 5 Years combined. I'm now ready for the front loaded spring which I sense maybe nearer than experts are willing to forecast.

[SLEETY]

You just know we will get perfect winter charts once spring arrives ,seen it so many times recently ,another march 2013 would be fine,we got decent snow mid month even here on the coast ,don't bet against it

[Tonyinhampshire]

5 hours ago, SLEETY said:

You just know we will get perfect winter charts once spring arrives ,seen it so many times recently ,another march 2013 would be fine,we got decent snow mid month even here on the coast ,don't bet against it

Indeed we will just when the rest of Europe gets the first heat wave

[Weathizard]

Think this thread has more posts than the model thread ATM   Things just won't fall into place for us this winter, very frustrating! It's like pulling teeth to get a cold spell to these shores at the best of times but this winter it's been horrendous

[Hanny]

The following seems to be he mean cause and effects:

• So far the forum has been overly excited at cold trends that are in some cases +7 days/FI.
• As time gets closer there has been a Trait of changes to watered down and/or no cold scenarios.
• Despite detailed posts from the experienced posters some choose to only focus on the key word not the 'may', 'could', 'might' and/or 'more runs needed'.
• End result - teddies arms and legs booming through the sound barrier as they are ejected by the die hard snow warriors.

There for we should adapt a bespoke Murphys Law as follows:

• When mild or not so cold trends are shown - similar to current status.
• We should await the opposite change around to cold as we have had as detailed above from Cold to Warm.
• It becomes a pleasant surprise as it was not anticipated as many disappear off the forum and thus are not aware of the changes etc - cold signals arrive on the short term forecast.
• All the shadow warriors spring out of the darkness to claim that they seen this in the 'Tea Leaves' and/or 'their testicles glowed as they used them as a crystal ball' and predicted the change to cold outlook'.

In summary - all very amusing and very predictable, its quiet as people are drinking tea like there is no tomorrow and others are turning off the lights to see if anything glows!!!