Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Wilxy]

6 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

After recent inaccuracies in forecasts relating to both pattern and detail within T+120, am I now seriously expected to believe forecasts as far out as T+720 and possibly beyond should verify in their entirety?

Yeah but notice as soon as a euro high type pattern is being forecast its very likely whilst when it was the opposite confidence was always low and that is because are default weather pattern is just that really  

[Freezing-Point]

7 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Well some in the MOD thread are now comparing current conditions to the same date in 1991 and noticing stark similarities. We can but hope I suppose.

I remember in the weeks leading up to feb 1991 seeing pictures on the news of the severe deep cold pool in Eastern Europe.  There was a powerful HP which became entrenched and eventually moved west bringing us the cold.  Although Eastern Europe has had some cold spell it nothing compared to 1991, so i am not sure where those comments are coming from.

[Freezing-Point]

1 hour ago, ArHu3 said:

I remember seeing a verification graph over time for days 1 to 10, there actually has been a lot of improvement but from around 20% to 45% but that means it is still more often wrong than right! It also seems to have reached a ceiling for the last 4-5 years 

 

edit here is one of these graphs, with day 9 not 10 showing

 

 

edit2: not a lot of improvement since 2005 indeed

Is that chart saying that at day 9 there is just better than a 50% chance of the ECM verifying at day 0?  Seems optimistic to me if it is.   

However the slight improvement in the last 10 years seems believable, but nothing you would actually notice.  Well not for me anyway.

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Well some in the MOD thread are now comparing current conditions to the same date in 1991 and noticing stark similarities. We can but hope I suppose.

That's because the 1963 'analogue' has well passed its use-by date, the use-by for 1947 is coming within range of the models, and 1991's is the next one on the list! Didn't one of the 1960s' Springs have lots of snow in April?

[Wildswimmer Pete]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's because the 1963 'analogue' has well passed its use-by date, the use-by for 1947 is coming within range of the models, and 1991's is the next one on the list! Didn't one of the 1960s' Springs have lots of snow in April?

It snowed on my birthday, April 21st 1963.  Bear in mind it was That Winter which didn't finally relent until the last week of April (Location: Wirral)  we had snow in March in 1970 which is still the Sixties decade (the Seventies decade didn't start until 1971).

[Walsall Wood Snow]

8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That's because the 1963 'analogue' has well passed its use-by date, the use-by for 1947 is coming within range of the models, and 1991's is the next one on the list! Didn't one of the 1960s' Springs have lots of snow in April?

Oh I know it's clutching at straws. After all analogues can perhaps give ideas, but every years weather is unique and we're never going to get a carbon copy of any particular season any year. Interesting nonetheless, but I'm not expecting the weather from now until the end of Winter to to follow that Winters script. If it was we should have had a big blizzard here in the Midlands in early December like we did in 1990, as it turns out we didn't even see a single snowflake. My faith in a Feb 91 rerun therefore is pretty low.

[knocker]

38 minutes ago, Freezing-Point said:

I remember in the weeks leading up to feb 1991 seeing pictures on the news of the severe deep cold pool in Eastern Europe.  There was a powerful HP which became entrenched and eventually moved west bringing us the cold.  Although Eastern Europe has had some cold spell it nothing compared to 1991, so i am not sure where those comments are coming from.

That's an easy one. From the keyboards of the desperate.

[Rollo]

So another winter appears to be passing us by, why do we take the lack of snow and cold so seriously? it is a puzzle to me but as one of those affected by this malaise I thought I would ask some of the intelligentsia here for the reason. 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

33 minutes ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

 we had snow in March in 1970 which is still the Sixties decade (the Seventies decade didn't start until 1971).

I know this isn't weather related, but I do find it interesting how there's debate on when decades, centuries and even millenniums begin and end. I guess there's 2 categories. When people refer to the 70s there usually referring to the period commencing on the 1st January 1970 and ending on the 31st December 1979. But the true measure of the decade could be referred to as the 8th decade of the 20th century which commenced on the 1st January 1971 and ended on the 31st December 1980. As for now of course, it could either be said we're in the 2010s, which began on 1st January 2010 and will end on the 31st December 2019 or the 2nd decade of the 21st century which began on the 1st January 2011 and will end on the 31st December 2020. Either are valid I suppose but they're 2 different measures.

Also, although I didn't know it at the time it annoys me slightly and shows a certain amount of ignorance that we celebrated the start of the New Millennium on the 1st January 2000, instead of when it really was on the 1st January 2001. 2000 after all could be construed as the first year of the 2000s but was in fact the 10th and last year of the 10th decade of the 20th century as well as the last year of the whole 20th century and the last year of the 2nd millennium. Anyway sorry for this post been none weather related, but your post brought up a point I have thought about before, so thought I would mention it.

Edited January 15, 2017 by Walsall Wood Snow

[Walsall Wood Snow]

2 minutes ago, Rollo said:

So another winter appears to be passing us by, why do we take the lack of snow and cold so seriously? it is a puzzle to me but as one of those affected by this malaise I thought I would ask some of the intelligentsia here for the reason. 

Probably because we're a bit insane.

[Rollo]

Cannot argue with that, but medically speaking Doctor------

[northwestsnow]

Still lots of time but im thinking something dramatic is going to be needed to change things.OK its not been a zonal washout ala last winter but for snow its been pretty much equally as bad.

As far as high lat blocking in our part of the NH ( scandy/ greeny) its been another no show..

[shotski]

23 minutes ago, knocker said:

That's an easy one. From the keyboards of the desperate.

Similar to your day 10 temperature anomaly charts that never seem to materialise. They do look nice though so keep posting them 

[78/79]

52 minutes ago, Rollo said:

So another winter appears to be passing us by, why do we take the lack of snow and cold so seriously? it is a puzzle to me but as one of those affected by this malaise I thought I would ask some of the intelligentsia here for the reason. 

Probably because most of us get sick and tired of the mind numbing drab mediocrity of our  insidious climate , and are desperate for  something remotely seasonal , be that Summer or Winter.

[10 Days Away]

8 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

Probably because most of us get sick and tired of the mind numbing drab mediocrity of our  insidious climate , and are desperate for  something remotely seasonal , be that Summer or Winter.

I don't mind the summers too much down in Kent... warm enough for me and a few imported TS now and again ( could do with more, obviously)

Winters are crap.... continually willing the modelled snow fests to materialise but instead normally getting a marginal snow event that thaws in a day or two. 

It is what is and will never change in my lifetime. We have to suck it up or go elsewhere for a snow fix in the winter as no guarantees of a frost let alone snow.

Edited January 15, 2017 by TN26

[Tonyinhampshire]

Looks really cold in Europe around France and Spain over the week. Lots of snow to come here. Hampshire today. Cool, cloud, drizzle.

Edited January 15, 2017 by Tonyinhampshire

[Bradowl]

7 minutes ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

Looks really cold in Europe around France and Spain over the week. Lots of snow to come here. Hampshire today. Cool, cloud, drizzle.

 

Just come back from Portugal where temps are starting to drop, it was glorious last week, day time temps around 17'c light winds and wall to wall sunshine.

 

Felt like middle of summer laid on sunbed at side of pool.  

[Walsall Wood Snow]

46 minutes ago, TN26 said:

I don't mind the summers too much down in Kent... warm enough for me and a few imported TS now and again ( could do with more, obviously)

Winters are crap.... continually willing the modelled snow fests to materialise but instead normally getting a marginal snow event that thaws in a day or two. 

It is what is and will never change in my lifetime. We have to suck it up or go elsewhere for a snow fix in the winter as no guarantees of a frost let alone snow.

Probably the inverse with any Winter fans in the far north of Scotland as at least they get rewarded by the odd PM blast most years, especially if they live at altitude (to be fair people who live at the higher altitudes of the Peak District as far south here as the Midlands don't do as bad as most of us most years). Any fans of Summer heat there though are bound to be disappointed most years. The only guarantees of more extreme seasonal conditions on this island is to live in the more extreme pockets and corners of it unfortunatly, and even then not always.

Edited January 15, 2017 by Walsall Wood Snow

[mountain shadow]

Things must be bad

The middle of Winter and not one post on a 12z GFS run in the main thread

 

[stainesbloke]

55 minutes ago, TN26 said:

I don't mind the summers too much down in Kent... warm enough for me and a few imported TS now and again ( could do with more, obviously)

Winters are crap.... continually willing the modelled snow fests to materialise but instead normally getting a marginal snow event that thaws in a day or two. 

It is what is and will never change in my lifetime. We have to suck it up or go elsewhere for a snow fix in the winter as no guarantees of a frost let alone snow.

Very true, I'm just glad I live in the SE as we do usually get some summer-like temperatures. Storms have been much less frequent since 2006 though.

Winter has always been generally vile in the UK. We have had a run of wet and mild winters so this one is much less dreary in comparison with plenty of nice days and cold nights. Shame about our bad luck with snow, though still a decent amount of time for that to show up.

[ArHu3]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Things must be bad

The middle of Winter and not one post on a 12z GFS run in the main thread

 

 

Like lol cold in the most SW tip of Europe but not UK

[Seasonality]

3 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

 

Like lol cold in the most SW tip of Europe but not UK

The weather trolls UK cold lovers yet again.

[stainesbloke]

3 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

 

Like lol cold in the most SW tip of Europe but not UK

But the real cold stays in E Europe, most of Spain will have max temps of double figures and France will be above freezing too, nothing overly dramatic.

[mickeyb44]

So we all got excited over an easterly / northerly / easterly type thing.

Then the inevitable happened, how long before the gfs throws this chart up just to rub the salt in...........................lets face it, its getting close to it.....just kidding ???

Edited January 15, 2017 by mickeyb44

[knocker]

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