Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Tonyinhampshire]

Sorry guys but I have just seen the BBC 10 day forecast. Europe continue in freezer but we get a dip in temps then back to the usual mild cloudy stuff... This does not match what the model forum are saying. Someone must be right?

Edited January 9, 2017 by Tonyinhampshire

[I remember Atlantic 252]

To me, the 18Z is way worse than 12Z

[March]

2 hours ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

Sorry guys but I have just seen the BBC 10 day forecast. Europe continue in freezer but we get a dip in temps then back to the usual mild cloudy stuff... This does not match what the model forum are saying. Someone must be right?

It's called ramping.

[Severe Blizzard]

Forecast for Guildford for the next 10 days. Absolute cr*p - Everyone talking about widespread snow by the end of the week. Going to be sick of seeing news reports of the north being obliterated by snow while south misses out yet again, not to mention the uninformed public prattling on about how cold it is when it 7 deg.C. with a chilly wind then that equally annoying remark that it is too cold to snow. 

Maps for the next week just look like the usual dose of zonal dross which we suffer every winter. What a let down. I have seen better in November.

More annoying still is that some friends of mine have gone to N. Scotland this week - typical. I go on holiday to Cornwall and miss big thunderstorms at home every two years without fail yet never get anything at my holiday destination. My friends holiday get excitement on holiday and don't have the misery of missing much awaited events going on at home while away then have to return to sitting through months of boring dross. Still thoroughly hacked off about September 15th/16th last year and, typically, no interesting weather in Guildford since. Storm starved, snow starved - Guildford has the most boring climate in the whole U.K. (never used to - just over the last 10 years).

If it can't snow - hoping winter 2016/17 was going to be exceptionally dry so at least I can continue to pursue my outdoor activity interests (cycling in the countryside) and try to forget about the frustration of the last few months. Can't even enjoy the outdoor activities now as the zonal dross has returned - more vile drizzle filth today. Now wet roads which will freeze with the awesome mind blowing cold (not) 0 / -1 deg.C. 'killer cold' that the media are waffling on about so riding is now ruined by the risk of slipping on the ice (had accident on 20th Dec. 2013 after rain previous day froze on local road when temperature was 1.2 deg.C. and considerable swelling pain and £200 damage to bike and clothes with a very painful Christmas to follow - so I try to avoid riding in icy conditions). I am not bothered about being grounded due to a decent snowfall but drizzle, wind, wet roads, ice is a thorough nuisance.

I was actually doing quite well this winter until this 2014/15 style garbage returns. Wish we could have the Euroslug back if it doesn't snow here in the south or we get snowmageddon - but not this vile glorified zonal dross.

Rant over.      

[BM4PM]

Quite an extreem met weather warning for the north. Heavy snow accompanied by 55 mile an hour gusts bringing blizzard conditions, with posible lightning strikes causing disruption to power supplies. Im not in the slightest jealous......

[stevofunnelcl]

Yes. the possibility of some thunder snow

Still, hopeful that the moors of SW at least to get something Wintry on Thursday

[AWD]

1 minute ago, stevofunnelcl said:

Yes. the possibility of some thunder snow

Still, hopeful that the moors of SW at least to get something Wintry on Thursday

Latest GFS 0z Op could give the SW moors some decent snowfall.

[Seasonality]

7 hours ago, Severe Blizzard said:

Forecast for Guildford for the next 10 days. Absolute cr*p - Everyone talking about widespread snow by the end of the week. Going to be sick of seeing news reports of the north being obliterated by snow while south misses out yet again, not to mention the uninformed public prattling on about how cold it is when it 7 deg.C. with a chilly wind then that equally annoying remark that it is too cold to snow. 

Maps for the next week just look like the usual dose of zonal dross which we suffer every winter. What a let down. I have seen better in November.

 

Well, not if you go by the ECM output. Yr.no produces forecasts based on ECM and it shows low single digit maxima for Guildford with lows of -3/-4 from Saturday. No snowmageddon but a good bit colder than average. Not bad for Guildford.

http://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Guildford/long.html 

[Evening thunder]

Possibly a small consolation for snow fans: Although some places have had tonnes, as of yesterday most places around the coasts of the Adriatic, Greece, Italy etc don't have snow cover, just dry cold (there is a fair bit of cloud in this image complicating things)



From: https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/ Quite a cool site with a high resolution satellite image each day back to May 2012.

[Tonyinhampshire]

Looking at the models would it be prudent to call these models ' artists impression'

[Ms Rock & Blues]

The suspense is killing me!!!!    However I feel annoyed as one forecast says yes to snow, others say no for Thursday /  Friday then I got excited when BBC said an easterly for next week but now it's atlantic westerly!!!!

I'm in the midlands, it looks like it's just going to skirt around me 

[Hocus Pocus]

I see the southern contingent have collected all their toys and put them back in their prams now an easterly is being modelled. Let's hope if doesn't go mammories up.

[Methuselah]

Kudos to all the posters who, at this juncture at any rate, have correctly predicted the direction the virtual weather now looks like taking...The major caveat is, of course, that the virtual weather and the actual weather are two different beasts?

[Seasonality]

32 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Kudos to all the posters who, at this juncture at any rate, have correctly predicted the direction the virtual weather now looks like taking...The major caveat is, of course, that the virtual weather and the actual weather are two different beasts?

Ha ha. The consolation for a "fail" will be the nuclear tantrums, recriminations and toy throwing if it doesn't come off. I like cold weather (within reason) but epic meltdowns are entertaining.

[Buzz]

29 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Ha ha. The consolation for a "fail" will be the nuclear tantrums, recriminations and toy throwing if it doesn't come off. I like cold weather (within reason) but epic meltdowns are entertaining.

I find the model thread a constant source of both amusement and major face-palming, the usual suspects are, as always, looking much too far ahead and leading the rest up the garden path. Now of course we have a reasonable GFS run and folks are thinking that's going to come off. It may, but it probably won't.

[Seasonality]

Just now, Buzz said:

I find the model thread a constant source of both amusement and major face-palming, the usual suspects are, as always, looking much too far ahead and leading the rest up the garden path. Now of course we have a reasonable GFS run and folks are thinking that's going to come off. It may, but it probably won't.

That is half the fun don't you think? The meteorological aspect is fascinating but the hysterics are pure theatre!

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Hocus Pocus said:

I see the southern contingent have collected all their toys and put them back in their prams now an easterly is being modelled. Let's hope if doesn't go mammories up.

Yeah - but since easterlies have a habit of delivering not much beyond very bitter, cloudy and dry conditions in this part of the world I suspect a fair few northerners might be gearing up to throw theirs out. January 1987 was like that here - not much snow, just cold and dry, and probably very cloudy to boot.

Edited January 10, 2017 by cheese

[Seasonality]

Just now, cheese said:

Yeah - but since easterlies have a habit of delivering not much beyond very bitter, cloudy an dry conditions in this part of the world I suspect a fair few northerners might be gearing up to throw theirs out.. 

*Gets popcorn ready

[Iceaxecrampon]

How can chaos be forecasted?

[Richard Taylor]

2 hours ago, Hocus Pocus said:

I see the southern contingent have collected all their toys and put them back in their prams now an easterly is being modelled. Let's hope if doesn't go mammories up.

You've said what I've thought for a while - yes, prospects of snow in the south, winter's back!

[Tonyinhampshire]

The other network are saying mild by the weekend with winter easterlies going north and south of UK

[weather_it_will]

7 minutes ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

The other network are saying mild by the weekend with winter easterlies going north and south of UK

Nobody knows for sure what the weather will be doing, as the models are struggling beyond next 2-3-days.

[Aaki Khan]

Aye Hay Sidney Knows Well

ECM - Vote Of Confidence By Sidney..

[Bristawl Si]

Guess there must be a disconnect between latest model runs, comments from main contributors in Mod thread compared to latest Beeb weather forecast this lunchtime as that said rain for the South on Thursday and mainly dry on Friday.

Glad that's cleared up then!

Edited January 10, 2017 by Bristle boy

[Hammer50]

If Liam is right and the easterly comes off we will be in for a right pasting down here in the south.