Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[cheese]

56 minutes ago, K9 said:

Sort of sums up the past few winters really!!....and also this winter..which yet again is a 'non-starter'...agreed we may have a couple of days of 'colder' weather coming up...but as Paul Hudson on BBC Look North weather just stated...this will be a 'very short lived affair'....so...enjoy our 3 day 'winter' folks...then back to the endless doom n gloom .....

The lady on the BBC national weather also said that things are 'looking up' for Eastern Europe as milder weather shunts away the colder weather.

No doubt that will annoy a fair few coldies on here! 

Edited January 9, 2017 by cheese

[SteveB]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

We have been going through a cycle of warmer winters, even by UK standards. This winter has been very different to the 'norm' with many frosts and anticyclonic condtions but still not able to deliver snow. I'm certainly not writing off chances of cold and snow for the rest of this winter just yet. We need a bit of luck!

The problem is, we can get the cold and frost with any old high sat over us, but to get the snow, we need a strong HLB block that when the lows roll in off the Atlantic it hits the block and dumps loads of snow. That never happens anymore.

The other way we can get nationwide snow is by Northerly winds and polar lows which are very cold and sustained for more than two day's. That never happens anymore.

Or we get a very cold Easterly which also has an unstable flow. That never happens anymore.

So what we are left with is topplers or dry Easterlies.

The UK is at the weeble end when there is any cold and snow in the offering, conversely we are at the weeble end in Summer for any storms and heatwaves.

We are good for cloud and drizzle though 

 

Edited January 9, 2017 by SteveB

[markyo]

Find it fascinating how folk are moaning about our up coming 2 day winter!! Enjoy it whilst its here first and then moan after it gone!!! Beggars can't be choosers

[Downburst]

8 minutes ago, SteveB said:

The problem is, we can get the cold and frost with any old high sat over us, but to get the snow, we need a strong HLB block that when the lows roll in off the Atlantic it hits the block and dumps loads of snow. That never happens anymore.

The other way we can get nationwide snow is by Northerly winds and polar lows which are very cold and sustained for more than two day's. That never happens anymore.

Or we get a very cold Easterly which also has an unstable flow. That never happens anymore.

So what we are left with is topplers or dry Easterlies.

The UK is at the weeble end when there is any cold and snow in the offering, conversely we are at the weeble end in Summer for any storms and heatwaves.

We are good for cloud and drizzle though 

 

It would be the best country in the world if you could roof it  

I am sorry to see TEITS go, but the pressure these guys put on themselves for models is crazy, they all have valid points and are perhaps trying a little too hard. It's like a horse race or a football match, you can model and predict and do minute analysis but the actual outcome is based on reality, not a forecast. There is no point in such zealous analysis of every run every day, there really isn't. I actually feel sorry as it's a waste of time ultimately, won't change a single thing. 

[KDME]

4 minutes ago, markyo said:

Find it fascinating how folk are moaning about our up coming 2 day winter!! Enjoy it whilst its here first and then moan after it gone!!! Beggars can't be choosers

May also be our only experience of "proper" winter this season, so leave the moaning to later even more so.

 

[Bristawl Si]

5 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Ditch teleconnections and anomalies, I say! What's wrong with grebes, seagulls and rowan berries?

Dont forget Fieldfares Pete 

Havent seen any here since Nov 2010 

[Seasonality]

43 minutes ago, cheese said:

The lady on the BBC national weather also said that things are 'looking up' for Eastern Europe as milder weather shunts away the colder weather.

No doubt that will annoy a fair few coldies on here! 

What will annoy coldies even more is output like this.  If you take ECM output for example on face value lets just say it looks less cold, then getting colder again, but a bit less cold than before maybe, or actually not that much difference. Was -20 minimum over the weekend and then on Thursday the thermometer will briefly nudge above freezing!!  Then after that, back to what people on Netweather call "Ice Days". NB these are maximum temps, colder at night of course, -14 on Sunday 15 Jan, -9 on following Wednesday for example. This is courtesy of yr.no that uses ECM output and has been much more accurate than GFS in predicting weather conditions in Central and Eastern Europe of late. (Poland being in Central Europe of course, not Eastern Europe). It does put all the fuss about an "arctic" blast in the UK into perspective a bit, and Warsaw doesn't even have a particularly cold climate, think of the residents of Moscow where it is colder still, or Siberia, where this would be regarded as toasty mild!

PS you commented about people in "Eastern" Europe moaning about the weather, well of course they do! Everyone moans about their weather, it is what people do.

 

 

Edited January 9, 2017 by Seasonality

[chicken soup]

Why has teits gone...he's been posting for years.

Edited January 9, 2017 by chicken soup

[Downburst]

5 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Why has teits gone...he's been posting for years.

You can read it yourself, he argued with some over his belief in discounting teleconnections and anomalies over his belief of favouring operational output. He has a valid point but what I don't get with everyone on the Mod thread (everyone who actually puts in all the work) is why not leave commenting on others alone? I hope he comes back as his input in brilliant and has been over the years. He just doesn't do the teleconnections which is fine with me. There was a time this was put on another thread and I think it should go back there as in fact the signals aren't in the MOD output, they are in the ether so to speak. So leave the Mod thread to discuission of Model Output, not thesis on MJO forcing.

[chicken soup]

I see......hope he comes back....no point falling out....its only the weather when it comes down it......cheers for the reply

[Gael_Force]

9 minutes ago, Downburst said:

There was a time this was put on another thread and I think it should go back there as in fact the signals aren't in the MOD output, they are in the ether so to speak. So leave the Mod thread to discuission of Model Output, not thesis on MJO forcing.

How have you come to that statement? Of course the teleconnections are in the model output or derived from it. It is not some separate mumbo jumbo from a witch doctor, it's all part of assimilating atmospheric physics in model algorithms and that goes into the ensembles and the operationals.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

13 minutes ago, Downburst said:

You can read it yourself, he argued with some over his belief in discounting teleconnections and anomalies over his belief of favouring operational output. He has a valid point but what I don't get with everyone on the Mod thread (everyone who actually puts in all the work) is why not leave commenting on others alone? I hope he comes back as his input in brilliant and has been over the years. He just doesn't do the teleconnections which is fine with me. There was a time this was put on another thread and I think it should go back there as in fact the signals aren't in the MOD output, they are in the ether so to speak. So leave the Mod thread to discuission of Model Output, not thesis on MJO forcing.

He was getting very aggressive regarding his dismnissal of the global drivers, which upset some who study them (or who use them professionally).  His forecasts for East Anglia were often very accurate at short range, but he seems to have failed (as have I) to understand the technicalities of the global drivers, but, instead of accepting it, he seemed to lash-out.  As regards the cold spell, it seems that the large teapot effect is going to reduce its severity.

Edited January 9, 2017 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[78/79]

Another  days money down the pan  thanks to the poxy rain, oh well at least it's mild eh

[Downburst]

1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

He was getting very aggressive regarding his dismnissal of the global drivers, which upset some who study them (or who use them professionally).  His forecasts for East Anglia were often very accurate at short range, but he seems to have failed (as have I) to understand the technicalities of the global drivers, but, instead of accepting it, he seemed to lash-out.  As regards the cold spell, it seems that the new winter effect is going to reduce its severity.

Yes, fair enough. Just BTW, I've been on here for many years and I haven't fully grasped the global drivers, other than to have an understanding as best as possible, but not to be able to knit them together or come close to a prediction for this local. The weather here is so variable, but within the constraints of mild and wet climate that the global drivers don't really impact us to the extent that one could take a week at anytime and say xyz is the cause of this, or a bomb is about to go off in 2 weeks time. Come to think of it I'm taking a break from this site myself. I'll watch the output on a different site and take a few months off. If the TV forecasts something 5 days ahead I'll pop back in. Weather won't change one way or the other.

[snow freak]

2 days of decent cold.  whoop de doo.  our countries winters are pants.

[Bristawl Si]

11 minutes ago, snow freak said:

2 days of decent cold.  whoop de doo.  our countries winters are pants.

Cant believe people are getting excited over a NW airstream feeding in wintry showers. We would've had a few of these by now, even in rubbish winters!

And it looks like we'll be back to a HP borefest by early next week. 

[cheese]

Just now, Bristle boy said:

Cant believe people are getting excited over a NW airstream feeding in wintry showers. We would've had a few of these by now, even in rubbish winters!

And it looks like we'll be back to a HP borefest by early next week. 

I certainly hope so. Today was breezy with frequent showers - absolute rubbish. Bring back the UK high!

[Seasonality]

On 1/7/2017 at 18:32, cheese said:

Scandinavia isn't Eastern Europe though. Eastern Europe is poorer. 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16786877

In any case, as stainesbloke says, very cold weather and snow simply makes life more difficult than it otherwise would be. Look at the US - people are fleeing from the northern states to the southern ones to get away from the cold. You don't get people moving to other countries for colder winters.

This forum is not representative of the population as a whole. Most people do not care for very cold weather. People who live in cold climates are definitely used to the cold, but that doesn't mean they like it. I mean, I know this guy who lives in Vancouver and he chose to live there because it's the only major Canadian city that isn't freezing cold in winter. He loves the fact that Vancouver is so mild while the rest of the country freezes. 

I love snow and cold in winter, but I know most people in real life don't like it. 

Thought you may find this extract from an article I read recently interesting. I think analogies can be drawn with the UK, think poorly insulated period properties where people have a strange aversion to double glazing and would prefer cold rattly single pane sash windows than "ruining" the look of a house with double glazing. Australia and the UK both share pretty dodgy building standards. (Oh and Poland is in Central Europe)

"Surprising though it may seem, people living in countries with relatively mild winters are more likely to succumb to the cold than those who reside where subfreezing temperatures are commonplace. In relatively cold Sweden, for example, cold contributed to an estimated 3.9 percent of deaths, while in warmer Australia it was responsible for 6.5 percent — one death in 15, according to the international study. It is not just a matter of adaptation. A more likely explanation: Swedish homes are better built and equipped to keep out the cold, and residents are more likely to have and wear appropriate winter attire.

Homes ‘glorified tents’

An Australian blogger, Adrian Barnett, an associate professor of public health at Queensland University of Technology, wrote that in winter, “temperatures inside a flimsy wooden Queenslander” — the typical home in the region — “are often below 18degC,” or 64.4 degrees Fahrenheit, “whereas Swedish homes will be a comfortable 23degC,” or 73.4 degrees Fahrenheit, “whatever the weather. Many Australian homes are just glorified tents, and we expose ourselves to far colder temperatures than the Scandinavians do.” The same might be said for folks living in the southern United States, compared with those in the much colder Northeast."

And from the study that informed part of the article (my emphasis):

"Studies of populations living in widely different climates show that they have in fact adjusted to their own climates remarkably effectively over time. The Eurowinter study, which made active surveys of 8,000 people in 8 regions of Europe, and related mortality rates to daily temperature in each region, showed that people in cold regions such as the north of Finland had no more winter deaths than people in regions with much milder winters such as London and Athens.[1] Studies in Siberia provided even more striking examples. There was little excess winter death in the big industrial town of Yekaterinburg[24] in western Siberia. There was none at all in Yakutsk, in eastern Siberia, the coldest city in the world with temperatures averaging -33°F in winter."

Edited January 9, 2017 by Seasonality
For clarity

[stainesbloke]

10 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Cant believe people are getting excited over a NW airstream feeding in wintry showers. We would've had a few of these by now, even in rubbish winters!

And it looks like we'll be back to a HP borefest by early next week. 

Well beggars can't be choosers lol...and a HP borefest sounds nice, much better than a raging Atlantic. I just hope we get lots of HP in Summer!

[Methuselah]

Well then, having got peesed orf with the GFS, I went away and watched Pointless, only to find that the answer to one question was IAN BROWN!

Naming footy teams ranking above Scotland, however, was much, much easier...Try finding one that isn't!

[northwestsnow]

Im here, still hating on Gfs..

[cheese]

1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Thought you may find this extract from an article I read recently interesting. I think analogies can be drawn with the UK, think poorly insulated period properties where people have a strange aversion to double glazing and would prefer cold rattly single pane sash windows than "ruining" the look of a house with double glazing. Australia and the UK both share pretty dodgy building standards. (Oh and Poland is in Central Europe)

"Surprising though it may seem, people living in countries with relatively mild winters are more likely to succumb to the cold than those who reside where subfreezing temperatures are commonplace. In relatively cold Sweden, for example, cold contributed to an estimated 3.9 percent of deaths, while in warmer Australia it was responsible for 6.5 percent — one death in 15, according to the international study. It is not just a matter of adaptation. A more likely explanation: Swedish homes are better built and equipped to keep out the cold, and residents are more likely to have and wear appropriate winter attire.

Homes ‘glorified tents’

An Australian blogger, Adrian Barnett, an associate professor of public health at Queensland University of Technology, wrote that in winter, “temperatures inside a flimsy wooden Queenslander” — the typical home in the region — “are often below 18degC,” or 64.4 degrees Fahrenheit, “whereas Swedish homes will be a comfortable 23degC,” or 73.4 degrees Fahrenheit, “whatever the weather. Many Australian homes are just glorified tents, and we expose ourselves to far colder temperatures than the Scandinavians do.” The same might be said for folks living in the southern United States, compared with those in the much colder Northeast."

And from the study that informed part of the article (my emphasis):

"Studies of populations living in widely different climates show that they have in fact adjusted to their own climates remarkably effectively over time. The Eurowinter study, which made active surveys of 8,000 people in 8 regions of Europe, and related mortality rates to daily temperature in each region, showed that people in cold regions such as the north of Finland had no more winter deaths than people in regions with much milder winters such as London and Athens.[1] Studies in Siberia provided even more striking examples. There was little excess winter death in the big industrial town of Yekaterinburg[24] in western Siberia. There was none at all in Yakutsk, in eastern Siberia, the coldest city in the world with temperatures averaging -33°F in winter."

You're not proving anything - I was already aware of this information. Homes in the UK have always been poorly insulated. Doesn't mean very below average conditions in places that are already cold won't cause issues. 

Poland can be either central Europe or eastern Europe, just like Germany can be either western Europe or central Europe. Doesn't really matter.

Edited January 9, 2017 by cheese

[Hanny]

On 07/01/2017 at 16:31, Frost HoIIow said:

 

Not really, if you are careful and wear proper clothing you will be fine (people in those countries wear proper clothing unlike Brits abroad) Temperatures in Yakutsk in Russia regularly reach -45C in Winter but there's always lots of people walking about and they wear layers. You don't hear of mass cases of frostbite mostly because of what they wear.

 

More people in the UK die from cold than in Scandinavia during the Winter. People in this country don't dress properly for cold weather (when we do get it) and our homes are poorly insulted http://www.independent.co.uk/money/spend-save/more-people-die-from-cold-in-britain-than-in-sweden-every-winter-8958302.html

 

Quite bizarre comments to be honest, as a 'Brit' I have always dressed correctly for the conditions - in fact I could confirm that there is approx 12,000 British Ladies and Gents that are currently correctly dressed for the weather in 'Europe' ......... I can also confirm that they all take the 'Queens Shilling' 

I currently work in both Norway and Denmark (two parts of Scandinavia), I can confirm that there are far more deaths there than UK in the winter ......... how ever it is not due to the cold but depression due to the short days would you believe!! 

As the UK is a Temperate climate and it is not the 'norm' to have pre-longed snowing conditions, I think the average across the UK works out at approx 5-10 days as a mean average - I am not surprised that some people don't dress for the cold, but I think that those deaths that do happen in UK is not from being dressed outside but more that they can't afford to put on the heating or have an illness that is the main contributor to said death.

I suppose that another way of looking at it - if you were to move the people over from Yakutsk with their winter kit - they would probably die of heat stroke in winter on our little island !! 

Edited January 9, 2017 by Hanny

[Seasonality]

2 minutes ago, cheese said:

You're not proving anything - I was already aware of this information. Homes in the UK have always been poorly insulated. Doesn't mean very below average conditions in places that are already cold won't cause issues. 

I'm very pleased you already knew this. You're obviously a very knowledgeable person. I thought it might be interesting to have a discussion so not sure why you are reacting like that. Why so defensive?

[cheese]

Just now, Seasonality said:

I'm very pleased you already knew this. You're obviously a very knowledgeable person. I thought it might be interesting to have a discussion so not sure why you are reacting like that. Why so defensive?

As you say yourself, I am a very knowledgeable person. I have nothing to discuss. I know everything already.