Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Methuselah]

And, considering that 'some have alluded to upgrades', what could possibly go wrong!

[shotski]

6 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Some people just refuse to believe our winters have changed, and snow is much harder to achieve away from northern hills, it's called the mõdern era

Hi,

I'm genuinely confused by this term mod era, and was wondering why it seems it only affects us in the UK. As you can see from the supporting charts below there seems to be an abundance of very cold air all around us to low latitude, certainly cold enough for snow. Could it just be that we've been unlucky 

I'm pretty sure in the 60s 70s and 80s Snow fell early December and stayed deep, crisp and even until the warming rays of spring, so there must be something wrong ? 

Edited January 4, 2017 by shotski

[markyo]

1 hour ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

One time in Oldham that sticks in the memory was being there in the winter of 95/96. Thought I'd experienced bad snowy weather growing up in a North Wales village 700ft above sea level...

God...never felt so cold in all my life..was like being on a polar expedition...north east wind was like a knife and the snow (fine powdery stuff) actually stung when it hit the skin.

And I would give my eye teeth to relive it 

Oh yes,totally agree,used to live in Saddleworth,Grasscroft actually,saw some pretty heavy and blinking freezing conditions regarding snow,like powder as you said......oh i wish

[MidnightSnow]

[cyclonic happiness]

ECM is better than it was, but that damn Azoroslug!! ><

[NeilN]

Is there a man made way to shift the slug other than a nuke? 

Edited January 4, 2017 by nn2013

[knocker]

I find that recently I have an ever growing affinity for slugs as well as squirrels. I know not why but I suspect it has something to do with drama queens.

[PersianPaladin]

56 minutes ago, shotski said:

Hi,

I'm genuinely confused by this term mod era, and was wondering why it seems it only affects us in the UK. As you can see from the supporting charts below there seems to be an abundance of very cold air all around us to low latitude, certainly cold enough for snow. Could it just be that we've been unlucky 

I'm pretty sure in the 60s 70s and 80s Snow fell early December and stayed deep, crisp and even until the warming rays of spring, so there must be something wrong ? 

 

Most of the warmer global temperatures are in the oceans and thus that impacts us in the UK given we're an island at the butt-end of all that extra energy supplied to the polar front. Cold anomalies off Greenland (ice melt?) and much warmer + anomalies south of Newfoundland make for a considerably disrupted jet pattern.

Edited January 4, 2017 by PersianPaladin

[shotski]

15 minutes ago, PersianPaladin said:

 

Most of the warmer global temperatures are in the oceans and thus that impacts us in the UK given we're an island at the butt-end of all that extra energy supplied to the polar front. Cold anomalies off Greenland (ice melt?) and much warmer + anomalies south of Newfoundland make for a considerably disrupted jet pattern.

Thanks for the reply PP. the Atlantic currently looks colder than average ?

[cyclonic happiness]

29 minutes ago, knocker said:

I find that recently I have an ever growing affinity for slugs as well as squirrels. I know not why but I suspect it has something to do with drama queens.

Drama queens are brilliant! 

[PersianPaladin]

2 minutes ago, shotski said:

Thanks for the reply PP. the Atlantic currently looks colder than average ?

Yes, but you have to consider the lag-time with respect to temperature in the oceans. Look at the higher-res November and December temps over the respective weeks:-

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/2016.html

[shotski]

5 minutes ago, PersianPaladin said:

Yes, but you have to consider the lag-time with respect to temperature in the oceans. Look at the higher-res November and December temps over the respective weeks:-

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/2016.html

Thanks for the link PP.

Don't get me wrong, I accept there is global warming happening, not sure of driver.

what I don't agree with is that low lying snow in this country is pretty much a thing of the past. We're always likely to be odds against tapping into any deep cold and that's  more down to geographical location as past winters have proved. 

[Wildswimmer Pete]

2 hours ago, shotski said:

Hi,

I'm genuinely confused by this term mod era, and was wondering why it seems it only affects us in the UK. As you can see from the supporting charts below there seems to be an abundance of very cold air all around us to low latitude, certainly cold enough for snow. Could it just be that we've been unlucky 

I'm pretty sure in the 60s 70s and 80s Snow fell early December and stayed deep, crisp and even until the warming rays of spring, so there must be something wrong ? 

From my 66 years' experience there were only a couple of winters when snow lay "deep and even" until spring: 1962/63 and 1981/82 although the Eighties saw several significant snow events lasting up to a month.  This was in the Merseyside area.

[shotski]

15 minutes ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

From my 66 years' experience there were only a couple of winters when snow lay "deep and even" until spring: 1962/63 and 1981/82 although the Eighties saw several significant snow events lasting up to a month.  This was in the Merseyside area.

Cheers mate , that was sort of the point I was trying to make. 

[Bristawl Si]

17 minutes ago, Wildswimmer Pete said:

From my 66 years' experience there were only a couple of winters when snow lay "deep and even" until spring: 1962/63 and 1981/82 although the Eighties saw several significant snow events lasting up to a month.  This was in the Merseyside area.

78/79 was a snowy one, for sure and lasted from late December thru most of January. Then the cold returned later in that Winter i think.

[Bradowl]

After just watching long range forecast on bbc news It's looking unlikely we'll see anything wintry in next 10 days.

It will be either mild and wet or mild and dry.

 

Early days yet but yet another snowless winter could be on cards. 

[DAVID SNOW]

Looks NNW to me?

[V for Very Cold]

Up early with a spring in my step and a fluttering heart thinking "what is the forecast and what do the models hint at? "

 

Answer..... very little

[snowblizzard]

10 hours ago, Bradowl said:

After just watching long range forecast on bbc news It's looking unlikely we'll see anything wintry in next 10 days.

It will be either mild and wet or mild and dry.

 

Early days yet but yet another snowless winter could be on cards. 

We are just about half way through the real winter period and nothing looks like changing in our favour.

That damn Azores High (UK Winter killer) has once again scuppered things for us.

I was really hopeful that, because of different NH pattern this year, we'd see a change to much more wintry conditions at some stage this winter but now I'm convinced it will not happen!

Another snowless winter for SE England is definitely now on the cards.

Edited January 5, 2017 by snowblizzard

[blizzard81]

I often find the 00z gfs op run to be the most disappointing run of it's suite and way too flat on most occasions.  The ecm looks good in my opinion. 

[snowblizzard]

Very frustrating!

200 mile Westward shift and SE England would already be under -10 850's

Why is the UK always under the yellow/green sector?

[markyo]

Mornings like this remind me how much I hate summer mornings! Feels so fresh and clean today,beautiful sky,feel so much more ready for the day!

[carinthian]

19 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Very frustrating!

200 mile Westward shift and SE England would already be under -10 850's

Why is the UK always under the yellow/green sector?

Yep must be very frustrating when many in Euroland getting snow this morning. Picture taken by my daughter this morning on her way to work in Stockholm City Centre , temp -12c. Cannot imagine centre of London looking like that ! Another bland weekend weather wise for Blighty with nothing weather but hopefully you will see some surprises later next week. But it always the same old story , chasing the cold, always just out of touch and meanwhile time ebbs away towards longer days . I am sure you will get some of the white stuff soon, at least a better shot than last winter.

 C

[Wimbledon88]

Well at least all the high pressure fans on the other thtead will be happy with the never ending borefest.

Always found it strange why weather enthusiasts would like constant HP,even in summer!

[Spikey M]

If I hear the words 'building-block' and 'day 10' again I might have to wrap the aforementioned block around the users head.

Edited January 5, 2017 by Spikey M