Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[cheese]

Lovely sunny day here. What's there to moan about? 

[Methuselah]

Regarding the above two posts, a back-loaded winter is now becoming a distinct possibility, IMO? Isn't (barring 209-10, '10-'11 and '12-'13) it always the same story: the usual suspects wax lyrical about what a wonderful winter is about to happen (if only this, that and the kitchen sink would do as I predicted)? Only for it not to happen...

[carinthian]

17 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Fits in nicely with the timeline of a failed winter.

First comes the hype in either October or November..this winter begins with talk of "front loaded winter", which failed to materialise. Once we reach January then the talk turns to "it's only January...plenty of winter left"...or when things looks really lousy, describe transient cold shots as better than nothing. Jam tomorrow charts at Day 10 dominate the forum...none of them however come within 168 hours of fruition...The clock meanwhile ticks on.  January passes into February...another snowless month away from high ground in Scotland...."February can be the coldest month of the winter' the optimists cry. More time goes by...the Spring flowers are out..February fails to deliver...another snowless winter...the cries of "remember March 2013" begin to pipe up...

And on it goes....

 

Witty post.

[Tonyinhampshire]

BBC radio 4 have just announced no more frosts After Friday......Winter over?

Edited January 4, 2017 by Tonyinhampshire
Dd

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

For me its cyclical.;)

anyway, you look well placed for snow thursday 12th to Sunday 15th, decent location, 200m maybe high enough

[Number 23]

I'd describe the winter periods 09-17 as analogous to the period 20th Dec to 15th Jan - lots of fun and seasonal festivity followed by a barren spell on the treadmill having dreamy delusions of being back on the eggnog.

Edited January 4, 2017 by Number 23

[Tonyinhampshire]

5 hours ago, carinthian said:

Witty post.

I recall snow in march 1 foot and 4 inches in April here in Hampshire. I think we should pray for 2 Months of rain before Spring other wise we will have droughts in Summer  under cool cloudy skies

[Nick F]

 A lot going against this winter delivering anything other than transient cold snaps delivering anything more than snow over northern hills and perhaps occasionally to lower levels in north. Most importantly, I think, we have a westerly QBO which tends to enhance the strength of the PV, despite being weak back in Nov, it has strengthened considerably and likely IMO to stay like that most of the winter. Also there are some anomalously warm SSTs off the eastern seaboard - which is perhaps enhancing the thermal gradient = stronger jet entrance over eastern NAM. Also, we have a few years until the solar minimum and also the MJO has been rather weak, despite the neutral to La Nina ENSO.

I, like others, were easily taken in by the models and the ensembles, when they were showing bitter northerlies and easterlies just before New Year before the plug was cruelly pulled. I put my hands up and should have known to be more cautious, given the background signals that were against such winter nirvana for the UK.

Not throwing in the towel for a long while, but really need to see drivers such as MJO, GWO and AAM work in our favour to work against the strong PV to perhaps deliver more in the way of blocking in the right place, but it will be an uphill struggle this month IMO.

Perhaps next winter or more likely winter after, when we see the solar minimum arrive and perhaps an easterly QBO phase, we will see better chances for HLB and weaker PV. Though these in between years between the solar mins do seem an uphill struggle to get deep cold over the UK, especially in a wQBO. Perhaps the warming oceans maybe playing their part? As continental interiors still get very cold in winter despite this.

Edited January 4, 2017 by Nick F

[Tonyinhampshire]

I see the GFS is projecting bitter cold for much of Europe including France . UK to be mild and cool. I said this 1 Month ago. That  reminds of the same set up when Paris had deep snow and snow on the beaches of Spain. I couldn't get of the ferry ramp at Bibao due to deep snow.

[carinthian]

8 minutes ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

I recall snow in march 1 foot and 4 inches in April here in Hampshire. I think we should pray for 2 Months of rain before Spring other wise we will have droughts in Summer  under cool cloudy skies

May be March 2013 the last proper snow for parts of the South coast of England. A four year snow drought on the cards down there if we cannot find the elusive Easterly. At least your have had more air frosts than the whole of last winter!

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

For me its cyclical.;)

Of course it is; it's an archetypal homeodynamic system, IMO...Notwithstanding the relentlessly upward contribution from AGW, our planet's climate (and weather) has oscillated around a quasi-equilibrium point, for eons?

[mountain shadow]

It would save a lot of heartache if folk referred to the teleconnections more other than just the model output to see whether they agree with one another. Over the Winter as a whole the models have churned out the odd High Latitude Block, which of course has never materialised.

I have begun to refer more to the teleconnections, such as the GLAAM, NAO and MJO forecasts to see whether they agree with any model output showing a HLB in the near future, the reality is they do not and do not show any real interest in doing so either.

Just using these three indices alone has proved very successful so far this Winter in aiding in predictions.

To be honest, I think we are relying on a SSW to deliver later in the Winter now.

 

[ChrisWSM]

Another Hokey Cokey, From Front to Back loaded winter in the uk again.

Hard to see where model watching begins and ramping ends.

I use this when I want to see what's coming as the charts always backtrack or disappoint.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=51.5;-0.1;4&l=temperature&t=20161107/12

 

 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

 

Perhaps next winter or more likely winter after, when we see the solar minimum arrive and perhaps a easterly QBO phase, we will see better chances for HLB and weaker PV.

I had hopes for this Winter having cold and snowy spells based on periods in the past when we had 3 consecutive mostly mild and snowless Winters in the past between 2 colder and snowier ones, such as those between the Winters of 1986/87 and 1990/91. Also those between 1996/97 and 2000/01. You've got to wonder though whether we're in a cycle more akin to those Winters in the early to mid 70s when we had 5 consecutive mostly mild and snowless Winters between those of 1970/71 and 1976/77. Too early to say for certain of course that this Winter won't redeem itself with the best part of 2/3 to go yet, but I wouldn't like to bet on it. I too have better hopes for the end of the decade and into the 2020s though when as you say solar minimum should be established with it being predicted to be the weakest for some time. Too be honest though even one heavy snowfall with even just a couple of days of decent snow cover here will improve this Winter for me at this stage, and with transitory north westerlies showing on the models that is a possibility if I get lucky enough. I don't usually like to voice pessimism however and we still don't know how late January and February could pan out so hope still remains even if it feels a bit diminished at the moment.

[Seasonality]

21 minutes ago, ChrisWSM said:

Another Hokey Cokey, From Front to Back loaded winter in the uk again.

Hard to see where model watching begins and ramping ends.

I use this when I want to see what's coming as the charts always backtrack or disappoint.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=51.5;-0.1;4&l=temperature&t=20161107/12

 

 

Very nice little tool!

[KDME]

7 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I had hopes for this Winter having cold and snowy spells based on periods in the past when we had 3 consecutive mostly mild and snowless Winters in the past between 2 colder and snowier ones, such as those between the Winters of 1986/87 and 1990/91. Also those between 1996/97 and 2000/01. You've got to wonder though whether we're in a cycle more akin to those Winters in the early to mid 70s when we had 5 consecutive mostly mild and snowless Winters between those of 1970/71 and 1976/77. Too early to say for certain of course that this Winter won't redeem itself with the best part of 2/3 to go yet, but I wouldn't like to bet on it. I too have better hopes for the end of the decade and into the 2020s though when as you say solar minimum should be established with it being predicted to be the weakest for some time. Too be honest though even one heavy snowfall with even just a couple of days of decent snow cover here will improve this Winter for me at this stage, and with transitory north westerlies showing on the models that is a possibility if I get lucky enough. I don't usually like to voice pessimism however and we still don't know how late January and February could pan out so hope still remains even if it feels a bit diminished at the moment.

Considering we have endured the similar weather patterns since beginning of December, a change will happen but the question is when and whether it is in our favour in terms of producing snow.  Gut feeling is that this winter will be snowless like the many that have preceded - too many false dawns.  However, this year is particular disappointing due to the positive factors in November ...

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

cool! but do you remember Atlantic 252?

No but i remember Picadilly Gold 1152 medium wave!  back in the 80s when we used to get decent snowy weather!( and no i dont mean march or april)

Wrt early next week i have hills around me at 350m so i can always jump in the car, and wait, think that altitude should be enough.

Edited January 4, 2017 by northwestsnow

[snowray]

1 hour ago, Ben Lewis said:

Voice of Reason right there.. Couldn't have put the following better....''Model thread describing transient cold shots (which will probably bring wet weather away from elevation) as "better than nothing"...then we've got problems''

I tend to find the ''Its only December'' and ''Its only January'' posts equally cringeworthy. One would think we live in some parallel universe where the snow will come if we keep waiting. Where have these people been since November 2013

Haha, do you mean this sort of post by any chance Ben?

 

"What do you mean with this Winter is over nonsense? Its only early January, it can still snow in this country in January, February, March, April, May and has snowed many times even in June! Anyway we have already had some very cold nights and widespread frosts, look where we were this time last year. We are only a small insignificant dot of an Island in a huge, massive warm sea, you need to lower your expectations."

 

Hehehehe

[snow freak]

1 hour ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Fits in nicely with the timeline of a failed winter.

First comes the hype in either October or November..this winter begins with talk of "front loaded winter", which failed to materialise. Once we reach January then the talk turns to "it's only January...plenty of winter left"...or when things looks really lousy, describe transient cold shots as better than nothing. Jam tomorrow charts at Day 10 dominate the forum...none of them however come within 168 hours of fruition...The clock meanwhile ticks on.  January passes into February...another snowless month away from high ground in Scotland...."February can be the coldest month of the winter' the optimists cry. More time goes by...the Spring flowers are out..February fails to deliver...another snowless winter...the cries of "remember March 2013" begin to pipe up...

And on it goes....

 

yes this can safely be described as a typical British winter.  in other words......boring dross of weather.

 

[knocker]

There you go. You need stronger positive anomalies adjusting west to the NE translating into a surface feature and bingo easterly CAA 

 

Edited January 4, 2017 by knocker

[snow freak]

35 minutes ago, Weather_Novice said:

Considering we have endured the similar weather patterns since beginning of December, a change will happen but the question is when and whether it is in our favour in terms of producing snow.  Gut feeling is that this winter will be snowless like the many that have preceded - too many false dawns.  However, this year is particular disappointing due to the positive factors in November ...

and I fear the cold will suddenly make an appearance come April and May, precisely when it is too late and we don't want it.  It's almost as if the UK is cursed when it comes to cold and snow.  Yes we are on an island in the warming gulf stream but it would be nice to have at least one or two semi decent winters every decade or so rather than 2 every 100 years.

[Carl46Wrexham]

31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No but i remember Picadilly Gold 1152 medium wave!  back in the 80s when we used to get decent snowy weather!( and no i dont mean march or april)

Wrt early next week i have hills around me at 350m so i can always jump in the car, and wait, think that altitude should be enough.

Is it still as cold in Oldham as I remember it being in the mid 90s? (Lived in Manchester for 4 years)

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Is it still as cold in Oldham as I remember it being in the mid 90s? (Lived in Manchester for 4 years)

Hi carl, its certainly a good deal colder than manchester.Obviously when the winters are as crap as they have been like the last 3 years it just means slightly colder rain..

[radiohead]

That feeling when you are looking at reanalysis charts from the 1980s and wishing it was the current GFS

[Seasonality]

4 minutes ago, snow freak said:

and I fear the cold will suddenly make an appearance come April and May, precisely when it is too late and we don't want it.  It's almost as if the UK is cursed when it comes to cold and snow.  Yes we are on an island in the warming gulf stream but it would be nice to have at least one or two semi decent winters every decade or so rather than 2 every 100 years.

By 2 in 100 do you mean 1963 and 1947? The reason they stand out is that in an oceanic climate like that of most of the UK you just don't get winters that harsh except once or twice a century. Even those exceptional winters for the UK would be business as usual for many other places on the same latitude. What makes things even worse is the UK's position on the western edge of a continental land mass beside an ocean warmed by the gulf stream you already mentioned, meaning it is particularly susceptible to warmer prevailing westerlies, has moderation from northerlies and is the last stop on the easterly train. Compare it to the island of Sakhalin on a similar latitude over on the eastern side of the Eurasian land mass and the climate is completely different. Don't think of it as a curse but an unavoidable fact of geography.