Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Wimbledon88]

1 hour ago, John88B said:

Very true. It's like any memories in life, we remember the big events and great times but we forget the mundane times which make up a huge proportion of life. The vast majority of British weather, like life in general, is mundane so easily forgotten whereas the great storms, snowfalls, heatwaves etc stand out in our memories because they were stand out events and they happened rarely.

Rest assured, throughout our lifetimes, we will continue to get plenty more big snowfalls, big freezes, heatwaves etc when the conditions are right but they will never be really common events because they never were!

Probably the best post on here in ages! So very true,every word of it.

[cheese]

1 hour ago, AderynCoch said:

Paris is colder than London in winter mainly because it's further away from the sea. Brest is on the European mainland but has warmer winters than London because it's right on the Breton coast sticking out into the Atlantic. As well as Britain being an island, nowhere here is very far from the sea.

Heatwaves which affect Benelux but miss the UK occur due to the weather pattern setting up too far east, not because the heat swerves the sea. It's just a slightly more eastward variation on the incredibly frustrating SE vs Rest scenario (the worst summer setup in my eyes).

I'm sure everyone here (well, most of us at least) understands that continentality is an important factor when it comes to climate, but mountain shadow is right. We're not getting the rub of the green with the synoptics. Having said that I think back to last "winter" and remember that things could be a lot worse right now.

Amsterdam might be a better example - close to the sea, similar latitude to Birmingham but noticeably cooler in winter and a little warmer in summer. 

But that's the thing - the South East is closer to the source of heat so is more likely to be affected than the rest of the country. In some cases it is also more likely to experience cold weather when there is an easterly setup because there's a shorter distance between the SE and the cold continent.

[pegg24]

Is winter Back on again now in the model thread .

[Frost HoIIow]

5 minutes ago, pegg24 said:

Is winter Back on again now in the model thread .

Only until the 18z

Edited January 2, 2017 by Frost HoIIow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

20 minutes ago, pegg24 said:

Is winter Back on again now in the model thread .

models look pants! no snow due for south for entire run, winter not really back on, never comes earlier than 372 or 384

[lottiekent]

19 hours ago, Snowstalker said:

This will be our 4th snowless winter in the far south east Kent.  

My now 5 year old daughter hasnt even seen any snow yet!

The situation is beyond dire.

If we go another winter with no snow my next holiday will be to somewhere that has snow cover just so i can get a snow fix....

You're not far from me so I feel your pain! No snow since 2012 when it snowed on my son's 5th birthday in February. He's already asked if he'll get birthday snow this year!

 

Seems that with the models at the moment it's so near yet so far (again!)

[pegg24]

17 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

models look pants! no snow due for south for entire run, winter not really back on, never comes earlier than 372 or 384

I have given up now with it if it's snows it will be amazing. But If It don't then so be it.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, pegg24 said:

I have given up now with it if it's snows it will be amazing. But If It don't then so be it.

Yes, would say on 12Z GFS definitely been a swing towards Atlantic domination and low after low, control run looks especially ugly

think from 8th Jan, zonality will dominate, just hope not too much flooding or gale damage, and make most of dry 'windows' as we don't look like getting a fully dry day when zonality arrives

[Dancerwithwings]

9 minutes ago, pegg24 said:

I have given up now with it if it's snows it will be amazing. But If It don't then so be it.

If it was July 2nd would you give up on 30c....or listen to summers over...don't read to much into remarks of  were not even half way through yet

Edited January 2, 2017 by Dancerwithwings

[pegg24]

13 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

If it was July 2nd would you give up on 30c....or listen to summers over...don't read to much into remarks of  were not even half way through yet

I have not said it's over but it will be what it would be nobody can change it all would love it to be a snowy winter. And hot summer as I love extreme winter hot and cold but last few years very

[Norrona2015]

Just out of curiosity but are the charts showing anything of interest for the middle of next week? Interesting Facebook post from Cairngorm mountain operations.....charts......winter storm...

Credit to Polar Maritime as he posted the info in the  snow on the Scottish mountain thread.

[knocker]

1 minute ago, Norrona2015 said:

Just out of curiosity but are the charts showing anything of interest for the middle of next week? Interesting Facebook post from Cairngorm mountain operations.....charts......winter storm...

Credit to Polar Maritime as he posted the info in the  snow on the Scottish mountain thread.

Well you wouldn't want this to verify

[snowbunting]

14 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well you wouldn't want this to verify

Eek... no we dont want that! Very deep area of low pressure. 

[mountain shadow]

This Winter of wildcards is rapidly becoming the Winter akin to watching paint dry. Endless MLB.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

ECM op fairly consistent - the upper ridge apparently just fades away days 10/12 according to the 00z eps - you reckon ?.?

Haven't we seen that before and nearer the time it decided not to! This is fast turning into one of the most boring winters I can ever remember and I've seen some crud in my time!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

This Winter of wildcards is rapidly becoming the Winter akin to watching paint dry. Endless MLB.

At least no where is under water

[northwestsnow]

Absolutely dire ecm for coldies.

Can pretty much forget the first half of jan if thats near the mark.

Unbelieveable jeff.

[Tonyinhampshire]

22 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

At least no where is under water

But we will get a water shortage this Year due to lack of rain, even if we get a monsoon in July and August. We really need this set up in Summer for the sun. Not looking forward to easterlies in March onwards.

Edited January 2, 2017 by Tonyinhampshire
info

[cyclonic happiness]

2016 was the year that weather died!

[snowbunting]

Maybe that cold pool of water (the cold blob) in the north Atlantic is playing havoc with the forecasts and their models?

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

But we will get a water shortage this Year due to lack of rain, even if we get a monsoon in July and August. We really need this set up in Summer for the sun. Not looking forward to easterlies in March onwards.

dreading the easterlies too, dominating April and May, next below average CET month, April 2017

[Weather-history]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolutely dire ecm for coldies.

Can pretty much forget the first half of jan if thats near the mark.

Unbelieveable jeff.

It's not that dire.

This is dire for coldies. Not even a frost chance with this.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

True it's dire Kevin, but as a dry weather fan, I'd settle for another Feb '98

[shotski]

32 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolutely dire ecm for coldies.

Can pretty much forget the first half of jan if thats near the mark.

Unbelieveable jeff.

[Dunlop Dave]

33 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Absolutely dire ecm for coldies.

Can pretty much forget the first half of jan if thats near the mark.

Unbelieveable jeff.

No panic here. In my eyes, the way the seasons are going, winter has just begun.