Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Hope we don't see a Jan '84 setup, maybe signs of it on latest 2 GFS runs, as definitely for low levels in the south, nowadays it would be less snowy, as a guess our temp in every airstream gone up by 0.3°, since '84 enough to wipe out low level southern snow, in certain setups

[snowray]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Remember  especially Oct and Nov and all the northern blocking  and perfect Scandinavian high in Oct  ,you just knew once we hit the winter months it would change ,why is it so easy to get the perfect winter sypnotics in any other season,but winter next to impossible,nearly always.

This seems to be the case almost every year now, perfect winter synoptics just outside of winter proper. Winters are always PV dominated so we end up in the wrong place with blocking in all the wrong places....only just mind, but enough, cold air often laps the far North and East coasts but then moves away again into mainland Europe.

The PV tends to slow down a bit though as we go towards spring so we often get the late cold snaps in the UK.

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Hope we don't see a Jan '84 setup, maybe signs of it on latest 2 GFS runs, as definitely for low levels in the south, nowadays it would be less snowy, as a guess our temp in every airstream gone up by 0.3°, since '84 enough to wipe out low level southern snow, in certain setups

What happened jan 84 lol

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Zonal month, but cold and very snowy at times, convinced 33 years later, would fall as mostly rain and sleet south, still lots of snow above 300m north I would think, 

Edited January 1, 2017 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Evening thunder]

Woohoo now lets chase the Scandi low in FI to bring a northerly which might lure us in with incorrect consistency, when 2 days ago it was a Scandi high to bring an easterly... lol

[Tonyinhampshire]

One thing is sure, we need a change from what we have and we need it now. it affects health and wellbeing. The lack of sun and pollution builds up due to lack of wind. The last 24 days or so have been cloudy, cool, and damp. This is not good for us.

[Evening thunder]

This episode has been disappointing to me partly due to the lack of easterlies recently, and one day I want to experience on of the -15C 850's beasterlies with maxima well below freezing (or at least well below -10C), and/or blizzard battleground set ups, that happened in the late 70's and 80's (with 87 and 91 two good sub -15C 850 temperature easterlies). Some eye candy suggested that possibility (I knew unlikely, but I still wanted decent cold winter conditions) however that's not on the table at all now.

Can't help but feel time is counting down for this (either climate change or me not necessarily living here forever...), 30th anniversary since 1987 about to happen.

Northerlies struggle to get uppers below -10C, and that's a good northerly, Often they are a bit marginal down here with maxima above freezing and some melt in the day.

Having said that, I will take an good NW-N flow as they can deliver some decent precip/snowfalls for the SW with lots of active showers or troughs in the flow, whereas easterlies can be dry.

With regards to cold zonality, I think it can deliver wintry surprises even down here. On November 18th for example, hills around here above 200m (and I think a bit lower down in N/NW Devon) saw a surprise inch or two of snow as showers clumped together in a WNW flow with uppers near -4C, and falling snow was reported from lower towns such as Tiverton and Honiton.
I have no doubt that lower levels could get at least temporary snow cover in January with uppers of say -6 to -7C.

Edited January 1, 2017 by Evening thunder

[78/79]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

That's the advantage of not have a vast ocean given our latitude which I think is around the same as somewhere in Canada we would see colder winters if it wasn't for the Atlantic

Living on the Somerset/ Wiltshire border doesn't help much either,  a good deal of the crap off of the Atlantic passes overhead on a regular basis. Maybe retirement to  East Anglia is an option,  a lot more settled .

[cyclonic happiness]

"Hey guys!! have you seen that epic cold spell in FI!"   

[78/79]

Just now, cyclonic happiness said:

"Hey guys!! have you seen that epic cold spell in FI!"   

You just reminded me ,I need to get some more blood pressure tablets, not sure if thee old ticker can stand much more, I've already had one heart attack

[pegg24]

9 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

"Hey guys!! have you seen that epic cold spell in FI!"   

Everything looks amazing at t240 lol.

Edited January 1, 2017 by pegg24

[stainesbloke]

3 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I've cheered up a bit since yesterday, so I disown my gloomy posts that lowland snow is history; that being said, I suspect it's becoming harder to achieve. 

Am inclined to agree with your comment. I've noticed how hard it is just to get a frost here or a storm in summer. It is easy to become despondent in the UK with our generally crap and boring climate but expectations need to be drastically lowered or despondency will be all consuming. Plus our best snows often come in February. No need to be downbeat at all as yet.

[snowblizzard]

34 minutes ago, pegg24 said:

Everything looks amazing at t240 lol.

Have you seen the T4500?

37c in London!

[BM4PM]

2 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:

I know my friends down south wouldn't like it but in my opinion the best route to cold is from the north west similar to what is being modelled in GFS FI.

I thought a Scandy High was never a real option and I still think that will have to wait till February but an aggressive north westerly flow with embedded south east moving systems is a real option and has been frequently modelled. Such a scenario is also within the wider atmospheric constraints discussed by Steve M earlier.

Its worth remembering that 'up north' January 2015 was quite a snowy month due to cold zonality, indeed, I recorded more snow that month than during January 2013!

No good for you Londoners but give us a break lads you have the best of the summer weather.

Snowy zonality aka 1984 it is then.

Andy

I wonder if the cold Atlantic  waters would improve our chances of snow from a north westerly due to less modification of the flow at the surface. Just a theory, perhaps someone with more knowledge could clarify?

Edited January 1, 2017 by BM4PM

[Norrona2015]

It's not just the UK that's struggling for snow. Denver just had it's third consecutive snowless October, This has never happened before since snow records began in 1882.

Edited January 1, 2017 by Norrona2015

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Our Cornish friend does get a bit of unnecessary criticism, so, for the sake of balance, I post this quote from him in the Model thread from a couple of hours ago:

2 hours ago, knocker said:

Yes I'm wondering the same myself blue and I can't help wondering where we will end up. Surely not low pressure centred to the SE as mooted some weeks ago?

 

[Backtrack]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Zonal month, but cold and very snowy at times, convinced 33 years later, would fall as mostly rain and sleet south, still lots of snow above 300m north I would think, 

With a pressure gradient that low and relatively cold uppers, that would never fall as rain

[Thundery wintry showers]

23 minutes ago, Norrona2015 said:

It's not just the UK that's struggling for snow. Denver just had it's third consecutive snowless October, This has never happened before since snow records began in 1882.

It's also evident up in the relatively high Arctic.  In the Svalbard Airport/Longyearbyen area, lasting snow cover didn't set in until the last third of November, and October and early to mid November were mild and wet with just brief dustings of snow before milder air came in and brought rain and a thaw.  

Although brief mild interludes and thaws haven't historically been that unusual around Svalbard in October and even November, until recently it was normal for lasting snow cover to set in sometime during October; even in 2015 it got to -15.0C on the 28th October.

[Jonathan Bollen]

I said winter as gone pearshaped again just like last winter. Still two month left but gone pearshaped again. 

[snowsummer]

Thought id best pop in here for a change. Over in the mod thread theres a few being lead up the garden path again. Living in a 3rd floor flat im not sure if i should feel sad to be excluded or happy knowing i cant follow in their footsteps!

[V for Very Cold]

I guess the default question should always be "what does MetO say?" They soon manage to burst any snow bubbles  lol

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

GFS appears to show the main part of the vortex not staying in eastern Canada and Greenland for any lengh of time, which, if it verified, might improve our chances of something in mid-January.  Surely some sort of broadscale pattern change is overdue?

[knocker]

Oh God..........................topplers are back

[10 Days Away]

Roll on summer, more chance of imported storms down here than a severe weeks weather in the winter it seems. 

 

 

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

Edited January 1, 2017 by RAIN RAIN RAIN