Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[johncam]

Simple question , is the met office run by money raised by taxation?

[shotski]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

he predicted the non stop storms of 2013-2014 and a mild 2014-2015

I'm yet to see his winter forecast , has anyone got a link please. Thanks. 

[Captain Shortwave]

2 minutes ago, johncam said:

Simple question , is the met office run by money raised by taxation?

The answer is both, it is a government organisation though its research and modelling has commercial aspects as the computer modelling the Metoffice creates is sold to other organisations, including the meteorological agencies of other countries. This commercial aspect is the main reason that public information is somewhat limited in comparison to the amount they actually do.

Edited December 30, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[lassie23]

so after hours of model watching and hundreds of posts, nobody  is any the wiser

[johncam]

thanks for the reply, so thats why we never get to see the in-house models then 

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

so after hours of model watching and hundreds of posts, nobody  is any the wiser

Well we are. There will ne be no widespread cold with snow for the next two weeks.

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Well we are. There will ne be no widespread cold with snow for the next two weeks.

Most new that anyway

[MidnightSnow]

There's a common theme and that is the real cold potential is always day 10 and beyond. Then as we get closer to the potential, it gets downgraded.

It will happen many more times this winter. Just had to throw that one toy out of the pram. 
 

[Paul]

Errm. I know it's only brief, but -11c uppers over Scotland, -5c into southern England, and that's at 66 hours. 

Seems odd worrying so much about models jumping around at 168 hours or more, and totally ignoring the goings on within the next few days!

[mountain shadow]

Just now, Paul said:

Errm. I know it's only brief, but -11c uppers over Scotland, -5c into southern England, and that's at 66 hours. 

Seems odd worrying so much about models jumping around at 168 hours or more, and totally ignoring the goings on within the next few days!

It's delivering very little though Paul. A blink and miss it affair.

We've had nigh on 6 weeks of great potential in the model output but nothing has delivered.

[Paul]

Have we? I thought we just went through a few weeks of not a lot showing cold wise at all?

It's all well and good being realistic, we do live on an island in the Atlantic which isn't exactly ever going to be a cold magnet, but at some point it goes beyond realism and into pure pessimism.

[Bristawl Si]

42 minutes ago, Paul said:

Have we? I thought we just went through a few weeks of not a lot showing cold wise at all?

It's all well and good being realistic, we do live on an island in the Atlantic which isn't exactly ever going to be a cold magnet, but at some point it goes beyond realism and into pure pessimism.

True Paul.

I mentioned 4 weeks ago that we live on an island next to the Atlantic with the gulf stream warming our weather (most of the time) and got slated!

But this Winter on NW is same as most winters - loads of potential that gets shoved back time and time again. As for the cold out East that is there most Winters.....but only visits these shores on the odd occasion.

Even in the 'leanest' of years (cold and snow-wise) my locality would've seen the odd day of snow falling, by now, even if only in shower form and i've seen some really mild winters in my time in my locality.

Still.... plenty of Winter left to go.

Edited December 30, 2016 by Paul

[cyclonic happiness]

23 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

True Paul.

I mentioned 4 weeks ago that we live on an island next to the Atlantic with the gulf stream warming our weather (most of the time) and got slated!

But this Winter on NW is same as most winters - loads of potential that gets shoved back time and time again. As for the cold out East that is there most Winters.....but only visits these shores on the odd occasion.

It's ironic that this Winter was showing 'potential' back in mid-November according to the 'experts' on here and we aint seen a flake yet! Even in the 'leanest' of years (cold and snow-wise) my locality would've seen the odd day of snow falling, by now, even if only in shower form and i've seen some really mild winters in my time in my locality.

Still.... plenty of Winter left to go.

Yes, but some of us have waited 3 years for a snowfall. You can understand why there is a vast amount of pessimism.  When was the last period in British weather history when we saw 3 snowless winters in a row in middle England?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Yes, but some of us have waited 3 years for a snowfall. You can understand why there is a vast amount of pessimism.  When was the last period in British weather history when we saw 3 snowless winters in a row in middle England?

and no sign of snow for our locations now either

[mhielte]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Well we are. There will ne be no widespread cold with snow for the next two weeks.

Credit to you if you can call two weeks ahead so confidently! Sod's law might back you though...

[Paul]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

and no sign of snow for our locations now either

Except for numerous model runs today showing just that, with enough uncertainty to be able to pronounce nothing as 'no chance' in the next couple of weeks. Plus we still have the fact that at just 36-70 hours ish there's plenty of cold air with us, and the potential for at least flake of snow in your location.

[Hanny]

9 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Yes, but some of us have waited 3 years for a snowfall. You can understand why there is a vast amount of pessimism.  When was the last period in British weather history when we saw 3 snowless winters in a row in middle England?

I a bit surprised by many of the posts - the UK is of such a position that 'Snow' is not the normal and if it does then its usually for a day or so. I think a lot of people are expecting another 2010 - but that was a freak event.

Afraid if you want snow then you need to move to Scotland (where there is a slightly higher possibility of snow but is not guaranteed ) or over to Canada which snow is the norm etc.

Edited December 30, 2016 by Hanny

[mhielte]

2 minutes ago, Paul said:

Except for numerous model runs today showing just that, with enough uncertainty to be able to pronounce nothing as 'no chance' in the next couple of weeks. Plus we still have the fact that at just 36-70 hours ish there's plenty of cold air with us, and the potential for at least flake of snow in your location.

That's not enough for people though. They want snowmaggeddon and a standard northerly with coastal snow showers is not deemed good enough. We are treated to more data than ever to pore through and it has made us greedy and unappreciative of our climate unless it is extreme.

[cheshire snow]

A couple of individuals in the Mod thread.really starting to hack me of big time

My finger is hovering very close to the ignore button,

Anyway not to despondent after the latest model runs lots more twists and turns

To come .

C.S

[Essexgooner]

Should ban models after 144 as they never come off and so many people get sucked in by it, lol

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

A couple of individuals in the Mod thread.really starting to hack me of big time

My finger is hovering very close to the ignore button,

Anyway not to despondent after the latest model runs lots more twists and turns

To come .

C.S

feature is useless anyway, can see post if it's quoted

[I Cumbria Marra I]

2 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

Once again, I'm beginning to get that sinking feeling!

There appears to be a gradual move away from any sustained deep cold & snowy weather setting in from E or NE!

Have the UK experts in Exeter got it right yet again against all the odds & most of the other models?

And, it all looked so promising!

 

 

Like earlier in the season when they predicted cold and snow? today they just updated the 16-30 day outlook and mention cold and snow from the east. They've been far from good so far this winter as have every other (i think?) experts to be fair.

[Bristawl Si]

31 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Yes, but some of us have waited 3 years for a snowfall. You can understand why there is a vast amount of pessimism.  When was the last period in British weather history when we saw 3 snowless winters in a row in middle England?

For here - early/mid 70s; late 90s/early noughties were virtually snowless (imby). The last 3 winters are doing a pretty good job.

In my lifetime best period for snow was 78-87. Some great blizzards during a number of those winters.

I fear Winters 09/10 and 10/11 are just 'blips' in an otherwise underwhelming last 20 years of South West Winters. Regards

Edited December 30, 2016 by Bristle boy

[Dancerwithwings]

God I wish it would just snow.....just to shut the moaners up.....moaning about downgrades in 10 days....come on,,,,, PLEASE give it a break!!!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

kinda has been one of worst seasons ever (upto 29th Dec) not even sleet or wet snow