Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Gord]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes, agree, if I posted my 'beliefs' in there, I'd be accused of being a troll!, it's what makes a forum for heaven's sake, opinions make a forum

my beliefs are that winters are getting less and less snowy as years go on, since approx '99, and everybody believes me, yes I have same opinions as Ian Brown, so what!

This bit spoils what is actually a rather good post.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Nizzer said:

I know it's model related and everybody has the right to post +192 charts, but I wish there was  at 0 to +144 thread. The chances of tonights ECM coming off is slim to none, but you'd think it was a dead cert the way it's being discussed at the moment! 

Aye, Nizzer: a blizzard @T+240 (of teddies, rattles and Tommy Tippys) is defo on the cards!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Gord said:

This bit spoils what is actually a rather good post.

it was meant at people I know, not on netweather

[Gord]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

it was meant at people I know, not on netweather

Fair enough. You're right though, it's healthy to have a forum with different ideas of how our climate is evolving. As long as we debate each other's views with reason and respect. Your opinion is as valid as anyone else's on here. Time will tell who is right in the end.

Edited December 28, 2016 by Gord

[John88B]

15 minutes ago, Nizzer said:

I know it's model related and everybody has the right to post +192 charts, but I wish there was  at 0 to +144 thread. The chances of tonights ECM coming off is slim to none, but you'd think it was a dead cert the way it's being discussed at the moment! 

Normally I would agree with you but charts similar to these would tie in with Ian Fergusson's colder outlook for January. With the likes of Gibby now showing some interest I would say there is plenty of reason for some optimism.

Edited December 28, 2016 by John88B

[MidnightSnow]

I know everyone is getting excited by the T240+ ECM charts but isn't there a good chance of snow showers early next week?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

I know everyone is getting excited by the T240+ ECM charts but isn't there a good chance of snow showers early next week?

Yes Scotland, and NE England, Norfolk/great yarmouth area

 

[Gord]

10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes Scotland, and NE England, Norfolk/great yarmouth area

 

I grew up in Lowestoft, used to love the big cb clouds drifting down off the sea full of snow. Sometimes, it was only Yarmouth and Lowestoft that copped them while the rest of the country stayed dry.

Of course, living so close to the coast was also a gamble during cold spells. While places like Norwich got buried in inches of snow, Lowestoft was rather windswept and wet.

Have a better chance of hanging onto the cold here in the West Midlands, just much harder to get the precipitation in.

Edited December 28, 2016 by Gord

[Aaki Khan]

#Ramp

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Gord said:

I grew up in Lowestoft, used to love the big cb clouds drifting down off the sea full of snow. Sometimes, it was only Yarmouth and Lowestoft that copped them while the rest of the country stayed dry.

Of course, living so close to the coast was also a gamble during cold spells. While places like Norwich got buried in inches of snow, Lowestoft was rather windswept and wet.

Have a better chance of hanging onto the cold here in the West Midlands, just much harder to get the precipitation in.

even I think they get less snow than they used to, but the chart I posted looks snowy there, before less cold air moves in on Tues 3rd

[Gord]

10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

even I think they get less snow than they used to, but the chart I posted looks snowy there, before less cold air moves in on Tues 3rd

They haven't done very well recently. A northerly can be their best chance. A true easterly is the holy grail though. I think that during December 2010, Lowestoft really struggled getting enough snow on the ground beacuse it was still too warm right on the coast. However, Jan 1987 and Feb 1991 were absolutely amazing..remember them well! The end of December 1996 was memorable too.

I'm not sure when Lowestoft's/Yarmouth's last good dumping of snow was, maybe someone here knows?

Edited December 28, 2016 by Gord

[I remember Atlantic 252]

in the christmas pudding, I would say Feb '09

[Eat Sleep Models Repeat]

139 in mod thread. Who's going to post next? Could we now see snow settling on 02/01/17 on the south coast? If this carries on I won't be able to sleep by tomorrow.!! 

 

139 members that is.

140 now. 

Edited December 28, 2016 by Eat Sleep Models Repeat

[Hanny]

20 minutes ago, Eat Sleep Models Repeat said:

139 in mod thread. Who's going to post next? Could we now see snow settling on 02/01/17 on the south coast? If this carries on I won't be able to sleep by tomorrow.!! 

 

139 members that is.

140 now. 

Problem is that a majority 'seem' to be spoiling for a forum debate as opposed to posting info that has a relation to the models. For some reason this year the amount of pettiness/one-up man ship has reached an unprecedented level.

As previously mentioned it has been a complete nightmare for the less knowledgable to sift through and learn about the weather, expience and/or how the models work, instead more about disgruntlement and cynicism from people whom seem to have a little knowledge and are dangerous with it.

A real shame as this forum used to be a great source of knowledge with balance views and interpretation, alas, it seems to be now going the route of 'chave' debuts and my exhaust is louder than yours!

Edited December 28, 2016 by Hanny

[wrightc23]

40 minutes ago, Hanny said:

Problem is that a majority 'seem' to be spoiling for a forum debate as opposed to posting info that has a relation to the models. For some reason this year the amount of pettiness/one-up man ship has reached an unprecedented level.

As previously mentioned it has been a complete nightmare for the less knowledgable to sift through and learn about the weather, expience and/or how the models work, instead more about disgruntlement and cynicism from people whom seem to have a little knowledge and are dangerous with it.

A real shame as this forum used to be a great source of knowledge with balance views and interpretation, alas, it seems to be now going the route of 'chave' debuts and my exhaust is louder than yours!

Agreed I never post in there, apart from the fact that I don't understand most of it, it's heavy going as it's being routinely side tracked with off topic posts and some pretty heated bickering. It would be great if NW put together a 'pro' model output discussion thread limited to professionals and skilled amateurs (with posting permissions controlled by NW) which discusses the model output. You could then have a general model output discussion thread for all the mayhem.

[Jason M]

5 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes, agree, if I posted my 'beliefs' in there, I'd be accused of being a troll!, it's what makes a forum for heaven's sake, opinions make a forum

my beliefs are that winters are getting less and less snowy as years go on, since approx '99, and everybody believes me, yes I have same opinions as Ian Brown, so what!

Completely agree with this. All personal opinion of course but in my mind there is no doubt that our climate is changing and the process is accelerating. 14 or 15c in late December is no big deal any more, whereas that would have been noteworthy 30 years ago. Most months are now above average CET wise and sooner or later it becomes obvious that the 100 year averages are irrelevant.

[joggs]

You just get that feeling it's going to be a never ending chase for the cold and snow us coldies are after.

The cracking ecm240h will downgrade.

If anything does happen I expect it to snap quickly.That's my only straw to cling to.

Decent set ups don't seem to get nearer.

Beats mild dross from the Atlantic though.

[snowbunting]

Wow... that run from the GFS was pretty jaw dropping. What if the ECM doesnt downgrade?

[snowblizzard]

Definitely bank GFS 06Z this morning.

But, it's unlikely to 100% verify!

Difficult not to get just a bit excited at the moment though!

 

 

 

Edited December 29, 2016 by snowblizzard

[Jeremy Shockey]

so if this verifies and we get snowmageddon 7-15th Jan it will count as a FRONT HALF LOADED WINTER  ( just )

[pegg24]

The model forum is is meltdown this morning. 

[Gowon]

Poor Sidney should have heeded the warnings!!

Edited December 29, 2016 by D.V.R
sidney with a y.lol

[cheshire snow]

Wonder if the forum will crash later when the evening runs get going,will be busy for the Mods later

C.S

 

[davehsug]

12 hours ago, wrightc23 said:

Agreed I never post in there, apart from the fact that I don't understand most of it, it's heavy going as it's being routinely side tracked with off topic posts and some pretty heated bickering. It would be great if NW put together a 'pro' model output discussion thread limited to professionals and skilled amateurs (with posting permissions controlled by NW) which discusses the model output. You could then have a general model output discussion thread for all the mayhem.

It's been tried, I don't think it was a success. I'm afraid that many of the model thread readers don't really care for detailed, level-headed assessment. They want to read people who tell them what they want to hear. I'm afraid that some of the most "popular and knowledgable" posters, didn't gain their reputations and followers by trying to limit expectations.

[Hocus Pocus]

5 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Wonder if the forum will crash later when the evening runs get going,will be busy for the Mods later

C.S

 

Could be a busy night for the Mental Health Crisis Team if we see a downward spiral after today's 06z.