Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[shotski]

10 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Well a few weeks ago we had "1962/63 didn't start until xmas so chill out".......I'm guessing the 1947 excuse will be wheeled out soon? "it didn't start until 3rd week of Jan."

Anyway I'm going to enjoy xmas now, have a good one all.

I'm 40 years old and live in central England  and I can honestly say I can't remember a white Xmas in my lifetime , why would this year be anything different. Our winters traditionally start after December and go well into March when the jet stream tends to calm down. 2010 was definitely the exception to the norm but I'm sure the new year will bring lots of opportunity. 

[pegg24]

1 hour ago, shotski said:

I'm 40 years old and live in central England  and I can honestly say I can't remember a white Xmas in my lifetime , why would this year be anything different. Our winters traditionally start after December and go well into March when the jet stream tends to calm down. 2010 was definitely the exception to the norm but I'm sure the new year will bring lots of opportunity. 

I am 34 live in Northants and same for me last white xmas Northants was 1981 checked it out 2010 was few days out as snow melted. Think was 2014 had wet snow boxing day that's as close as come to a white xmas.

[Frost HoIIow]

5 hours ago, shotski said:

I'm 40 years old and live in central England  and I can honestly say I can't remember a white Xmas in my lifetime , why would this year be anything different. Our winters traditionally start after December and go well into March when the jet stream tends to calm down. 2010 was definitely the exception to the norm but I'm sure the new year will bring lots of opportunity. 

Let's hope so but I'm not getting my hopes up too much. I'm 67 this year coming up so quite a bit older than yourself. I've seen some amazing cold and snow events in my life time including 1962/63. But even years ago our climate was often a bit disappointing for snow because of the Atlantic and the prevailing westerly wind which has always been a thorn in the side of a "coldie" in this country, there was always long spells of mild weather in between the colder Winters.

Edited December 24, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[knocker]

Just a reminder if you are serving up 'Greeny Highs' tomorrow as a side dish, or even the main agenda, it's imperative they are not overcooked

[Yarmy]

 

Ding Dong, Verily a High!

 

Merry Christmas, all.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

All I want for Christmas is a Greenie High.. 

[shotski]

40 minutes ago, knocker said:

Just a reminder if you are serving up 'Greeny Highs' tomorrow as a side dish, or even the main agenda, it's imperative they are not overcooked

Over cooked , it's positively falling off the bone  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

All I want for Christmas is a Greenie High.. 

I fancy a Murr sausage!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I fancy a Murr sausage!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

With or without the sauce 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Hardcore MO thread contributors in a froth over the latest ECM charts for the 3rd Jan.

We shall see as ever........

Edited December 24, 2016 by Iceaxecrampon

[Matthew.]

Hope Knocker doesn't tell Sidney all of this from the ECM.

[Allseasons-Si]

On 23/12/2016 at 17:14, phil nw. said:

Nothing wrong with a bit excitement,let's face it there's been nothing to shout about for coldies so far,however many of us have been here before with the old Atlantic ridge and the main jet running over the top.

This is what would excite me

I don't think we are anywhere in that ball park currently.

Theirs a possibility that the ecm could produce that within the next few runs,i hope

 

 

[markyo]

Something is brewing,models are certainly showing the trend now to fill the coldies with a bit of hope,we need it after a shockingly warm xmas day!! Fingers crossed winter may be starting!

[Frost HoIIow]

52 minutes ago, markyo said:

Something is brewing,models are certainly showing the trend now to fill the coldies with a bit of hope,we need it after a shockingly warm xmas day!! Fingers crossed winter may be starting!

Yep nothing unusual about January turning colder, what with the lag effect in our climate. December isn't normally a proper Winter month anyway, bar exceptions like 2010. Just like June isn't normally the hottest Summer month despite the most daylight. And September temps can often feel more Summer like than Autumn.

Edited December 25, 2016 by Frost HoIIow

[blizzard81]

2 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Yep nothing unusual about January turning colder, what with the lag effect in our climate. December isn't normally a proper Winter month anyway, bar exceptions like 2010. Just like June isn't normally the hottest Summer month despite the most daylight. And September temps can often feel more Summer like than Autumn.

I certainly don't expect anything special this winter. It's another familiar tale of the pot of gold being dangled at day 10 only for this to be watered down to nothing! This sums up the last 24 hours on the models, sorry, last 6 years actually!

[DAVID SNOW]

Just reality from Steve....

And yes, missing data is a fact over Christmas.

[Eat Sleep Models Repeat]

4 hours ago, markyo said:

Something is brewing,models are certainly showing the trend now to fill the coldies with a bit of hope,we need it after a shockingly warm xmas day!! Fingers crossed winter may be starting!

I thought that back a few weeks back but look where we ended up.  

Anyway, lots of the big guns in the mod thread a minute or two ago. Good to see a sensible discussion going on.  

Maybe, ( there 'could be something brewing' ) may be more appropriate.  

IMO, better than there 'isn't anything brewing'.  IYFMD... drift (drifting) get it?

 

Night all.....

[Spikey M]

I'm firmly in the 'there's probably nothing brewing' camp.

[knocker]

The odds are tumbling on social media that fergieweather, with a late burst up the rails, will get a mention in the New Years Honours List.

" The trend is your friend"

Edited December 26, 2016 by knocker

[carinthian]

Nice looking winter charts to start 2017 for those looking for snow and near freezing temperatures. The first chart from UKMO (N Atlantic view ) at168t in the almost reliable time span shows the front clearing the south coast of England and a colder arctic sourced air mass covering much of the British Isles, maybe with a disturbance running along the Channel/ N France. Later chart from ECM at 240t shows cold air established well south into Western Europe with a nice Mid Atlantic block. GFS at the same time  shows polar disturbances starting to form and head towards the Britsh Isles with a slightly flatter Mid Atlantic block , resulting in a cut off of the cold supply for a while before a renewed Arctic attack again well south into Western Europe, but that's a long way off. Overall pleasing charts for most this morning and getting closer to a reliable time period for coming off !

 C

Edited December 26, 2016 by carinthian

[knocker]

No particular sign of the Canadian vortex going anywhere soon and still indications of some mild SW zephyrs

[Matthew.]

I think a minute's reflection is in order 44 years ago:

[markyo]

Many many positives on the horizon at last,something to cheer us up after a awful December. Love the way some folk just dismiss any move towards cold,bit odd in my opinion as some are senior members on the forum who should know better.

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, markyo said:

Many many positives on the horizon at last,something to cheer us up after a awful December. Love the way some folk just dismiss any move towards cold,bit odd in my opinion as some are senior members on the forum who should know better.

Some get easily downbeat, others? Hmmmmmm i think most of us know full well what you mean , ignore function is wonderful....

[knocker]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Some get easily downbeat, others? Hmmmmmm i think most of us know full well what you mean , ignore function is wonderful....

If it's me you are referring to I'll save you the bother of using the function.