Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Matthew.]

1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

You forgot 11/12 I had never seen temperatures that low, near -25C, it set quite a few day records

Was that Feb 12'?

[ArHu3]

4 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Was that Feb 12'?

Yes 5 minimum temperature day records broken that, coldest I ever remembered

[Matthew.]

1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

Yes 5 minimum temperature day records broken that, coldest I ever remembered

Yes the first half of Feb cold in the Uk, a oldtime easterly. The second half was quite the opposite here which stopped it being a notable month as a whole.

[Fozfoster]

If we use all the salt we have stockpiled for our roads on the euro slug i still think thats not going to rid us of it!!!    

[ArHu3]

14 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Yes the first half of Feb cold in the Uk, a oldtime easterly. The second half was quite the opposite here which stopped it being a notable month as a whole.

Nothing is notable if you lump big enough time period and average it out, fact is it was very very very cold with very few lower temperatures recorded. I had to wear a t shirt ,shirt, 2 sweaters and jacket and it was still cold (did not know about down jackets back then )

Edited December 22, 2016 by ArHu3

[Sky Full]

3 hours ago, Gavin Hannah said:

A lot of bottom of the barrel scratching going on in the model thread. Not one to rant much, but Come Friggin On! Even the Sahara got snow the other day, and it lasted a whole 24 hours! Stop crapping on us weather gods and deliver the friggin goods!

Now that's what I call proper moan!   Amen to that.

[Matthew.]

4 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Nothing is notable if you lump big enough time period and average it out, fact is it was very very very cold with very few lower temperatures recorded. I had to wear a t shirt ,shirt, 2 sweaters and jacket and it was still cold

That makes 5 winters in a row which had notable snowy cold periods then. Cant complain really.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes, gone are the vintage easterlies, we always used to get in 80's and 90's, and earlier of course, convective snow, then fronts from SW, then more convective snow, when I was a kid, easterlies were so common

sure now since 2000, easterlies are not as cold, as snowy, as long lasting and anywhere near as frequent, the christmas pudding completely sucks!

[mountain shadow]

32 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

There is the theory but when all things considered we've recently had a number of colder winters-

08/09

09/10

10/11

12/13

Im sure as solar minimum encroaches another 1 or 2 will come along so really i dont think much more can be expected. One thing i would say is milder winters are becoming milder maybe because of CC.

I never said that we would never get proper cold again, just that they would become less frequent. The upcoming solar minimum and the general reduction in solar activity may override the global warming signals for a while, but when solar activity picks up again...

[Sky Full]

1 hour ago, spindrift1980 said:

I'd be interested in people's views as to how much of the apparent decline in cold winter conditions in the British Isles from about the late 80s onwards (and particularly these last few years from 2011 onwards) is down to decreasing frequency of the right synoptics, and how much is down to the same/similar synoptics being less potent than they used to be in advecting cold air to these parts?  

In other words, would hypothetical mid-20th century chart and 21st century charts showing the same distribution of pressure in the northern hemisphere (in, for argument's sake, a pattern which typically produces cold conditions for the British Isles) produce milder/less severe results in the 21st Century because of declining polar sea ice, cold air in the northern hemisphere, and other warming factors?  I suspect this may be less of a factor than changing synoptics (more southerlies and south-westerlies) but wondered if this general area has been studied?

Just wait until decreasing salinity in the Arctic sea caused by fresh water runoff from the melting Greenland icecap reaches the point where the Gulf Stream shuts down.  Then we'll see what winter at this latitude is like for everyone else and I'm not sure we're going to like it much.  I will probably not be around long enough see it myself though. 

[jvenge]

Not really much of a change, a slight one. You know, I think people are remembering standout winters and then associating them with the norm for back then. Then comparing it with the here and now and not seeing those standout winters as often as THEY THINK they used to.

[ArHu3]

31 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

That makes 5 winters in a row which had notable snowy cold periods then. Cant complain really.

no snow but good ice skating, the first, and last, time since many years

[Norrona2015]

One for the coldies.

Link to conditions at Glenshee yesterday:

 

 

[frosty ground]

Main thread is an utter clusterduck of pre Xmas wrapping paper

[chris55]

Snow in the Saraha!!! Though i don't agree with the direct link to GW, it's obvious GW has impacted on our weather patterns , we can see the balance of high and low pressure distribution has been changed in the M.O.D.E.R.N. W.I.N.T.E.R resulting in cold fronts getting into places where they are not normally seen. And on the flip side, milder patterns taking precedence where it would normally be colder.

Edited December 22, 2016 by chris55

[claret047]

Good Afternoon,

Apologies everyone. It is all my fault. Just over a fortnight ago, when the models were showing a cold Christmas with the possibility of snow even in the southeast I decided to place a £5 bet at my local bookies for snow to fall at Heathrow Airport on the big day. The next day was when the models started to show a change in emphasis so that by today the BBC lunchtime forecaster said that in the south it may be a record breaking Christmas day for the wrong reasons with temperatures possibly hitting the mid to high 50's F.

You could not make it up.

Kind Regards

Dave

[I remember Atlantic 252]

it is 1000m asl though, so probably not that unusual, and there are too many Dave's!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited December 22, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[The PIT]

Another nothing run the most boring winter I can remember continues. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, The PIT said:

Another nothing run the most boring winter I can remember continues. 

could be worse! low after low crashing into the UK, although that's my prediction from January 8th, Zonal onslaught, dry from Boxing Day to January 7

[chris55]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

could be worse! low after low crashing into the UK, although that's my prediction from January 8th, Zonal onslaught, dry from Boxing Day to January 7

Is that a guess forecast? or is there something to back it up? 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, chris55 said:

Is that a guess forecast? or is there something to back it up? 

instinct mainly, and experience, most forecasts to be fair are kind of a guess, 

[The PIT]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

could be worse! low after low crashing into the UK, although that's my prediction from January 8th, Zonal onslaught, dry from Boxing Day to January 7

That's better than mild nothingness or average nothingness. If ain't going to cold let it be stormy.

[Bristawl Si]

2 hours ago, Matthew Wilson said:

There is the theory but when all things considered we've recently had a number of colder winters-

08/09

09/10

10/11

12/13

Im sure as solar minimum encroaches another 1 or 2 will come along so really i dont think much more can be expected. One thing i would say is milder winters are becoming milder maybe because of CC.

I must've been asleep during 08/09 and 12/13.

Go back over 20 years and 09/10 and 10/11 are cold 'blips' in an otherwise mild(ish) run of Winters (UK) 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

in the Wimbledon spirit Ed? cool, wimbledon is highlight of my year! and Xmas of course

[Snowy L]

1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

I must've been asleep during 08/09 and 12/13.

Go back over 20 years and 09/10 and 10/11 are cold 'blips' in an otherwise mild(ish) run of Winters (UK) 

Maybe you weren't in the UK? 12/13 was one of the snowiest winters I can remember. Not particularly cold but battleground after battleground just on the right side of marginal.