Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[stewfox]

6 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Take me to Buffalo. Very jealous.

 

Bufflo 42.8864° N .....Ambrosden  51.8699° N

F**** Atlantic

Oregon March 1995

 

Edited December 15, 2016 by stewfox

[I remember Atlantic 252]

good events there! looked at archive for Dec 29th '01, think that missed here, now year earlier '00, got loads overnight 27th into 28th, but remember the early days of '02, very cold ice days

think you mean Feb '03? very good northerly, lots of snow

Feb '04

Edited December 15, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[biggreyface]

I wonder if Ian f has contacted snowgrain yet to let him know there's a job waiting for him at the met office long range forecasting team.#legend

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, biggreyface said:

I wonder if Ian f has contacted snowgrain yet to let him know there's a job waiting for him at the met office long range forecasting team.#legend

well, sometimes dosen't matter how you forecast, like I have been telling everyone I know, that this will be a snow free month, I'm that confident, so I am an extreme amateur, but maybe I have 'forecast' right

I certainly tell everyone to ignore papers and believe me

[Walsall Wood Snow]

14 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

good events there! looked at archive for Dec 29th '01, think that missed here, now year earlier '00, got loads overnight 27th into 28th, but remember the early days of '02, very cold ice days

think you mean Feb '03? very good northerly, lots of snow

Feb '04

Yes I think the Dec 01 event was a bit isolated. Everywhere I went there was snow about but I would have only been in the local area at the time, though I remember going to Star City near Birmingham with my family one evening and there was snow round there. On the other hand a friend of mine at the time who lived in Willenhall said there was none round his way, and he decided to stay with his grandparents who lived up the road in Brownhills just to be around the snow. Dec 00 though as you say was much more widespread around the country and therefore is better remembered by more people, as well as been deeper and colder. Though that was something of a cold Winter overall, if not remarkably so, except for that spell

I forgot about Feb 03, I was at college then and I remember having snowball fights at break time there. But what I was referring to was definitely 04 as it was my first Winter in my current job (I started in Oct 03) and I think now happened sometime in late January. I remember on the news there was traffic jams in Birmingham due to black ice and it felt bitter that night. It didn't last long though and may have started thawing as soon as the next day.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

This maybe? was rubbish here though 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

This maybe? was rubbish here though 

It wasn't especially deep round here either I think, but it did look good especially come evening and was certainly better than any event we've had round here since March 13. Though it didn't happen here I think there were reports of thundersnow in some parts.

Edited December 15, 2016 by Walsall Wood Snow

[joggs]

I can forecast that roughly 6 out of the next 9 or so winters will be mild lol. 

[Matthew.]

Yes Walsall wood snow I remember being sent home from school in 03 jan/feb. A arctic blast followed by the high from west. We youse to get a lot of them in those days.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

Yes Walsall wood snow I remember being sent home from school in 03 jan/feb. A arctic blast followed by the high from west. We youse to get a lot of them in those days.

good old days! they ruled for cold/snow, even though this is still millennium

[Matthew.]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

good old days! they ruled for cold/snow, even though this is still millennium

And then came along the 3 cold winters around 09. I must admit i took these for granted really thinking they were normal at the time. My saving grace was that i made a sledge with a bathtub in the middle in november 10, perfect timing.

[stevofunnelcl]

local paper is saying bookies predicting a 'heatwave' for Dec 25th

http://www.northdevonjournal.co.uk/white-christmas-chances-slim-in-north-devon-as-bookies-predict-december-25-heatwave/story-29983784-detail/story.html

they go on to mention what the temperature was 'last' year

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, stevofunnelcl said:

local paper is saying bookies predicting a 'heatwave' for Dec 25th

http://www.northdevonjournal.co.uk/white-christmas-chances-slim-in-north-devon-as-bookies-predict-december-25-heatwave/story-29983784-detail/story.html

they go on to mention what the temperature was 'last' year

Extreme again, Xmas weather is wet, with possible flooding, significant snow in Scotland, my prediction anyway, mildish in south

Edited December 15, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[MP-R]

The 2000s haven't been that bad at all for snow events per winter really... only a handful have been dire.

December 28th 2000 - northerly

March 01st-04th 2001 / December 30th 2001 - northeasterly / northerly

February 26th/27th 2004 - northerly

December 19th 2004 - slider

November 25th 2005 - northerly

March 01st & 12th 2006 - northerly & battleground

February 08th 2007 - battleground

February 02nd-10th 2009 - series of channel lows

December 21st 2009 - snowy westerly

January 2010 - northerlies and battlegrounds

December 2010 - easterlies and northerlies

February 04th/05th 2012 - battleground

January 18th-25th 2013 - battleground and easterlies

These have all produced what I would consider a proper covering. There have of course been other snow events in among all those, just not quite as impressive. Only a handful of winters come to mind wrt total absence of snow.

Also shows the number of ways we can get snow, even at either end of the season. I think that's what makes this month so painstakingly boring so far. I wonder if some of the potent Pm charts in FI will come into fruition. Either that or a battleground followed by an easterly would be nice.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

30 minutes ago, MP-R said:

 

February 26th/27th 2004 - northerly

 

The event I referred to could have been then. I don't remember exactly when except I know it was 2004. Actually another thing I just remembered about this event was that shortly after I went to London for the weekend with my family and I remember it snowing there then, though it didn't settle. It was a cold weekend though and when I got back I remember having a bonfire in my back garden with my Dad. There was no snow left here by that point but it felt bitter, but I think this cold spell ended quickly after. Come to think of it, it must have been then rather than January as I initially thought. Thanks for clearing that up MP-R. Perhaps Atlantic 252 will also remember something better from then than that January chart he posted.

 

[MP-R]

3 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

The event I referred to could have been then. I don't remember exactly when except I know it was 2004. Actually another thing I just remembered about this event was that shortly after I went to London for the weekend with my family and I remember it snowing there then, though it didn't settle. It was a cold weekend though and when I got back I remember having a bonfire in my back garden with my Dad. There was no snow left here by that point but it felt bitter, but I think this cold spell ended quickly after. Come to think of it, it must have been then rather than January as I initially thought. Thanks for clearing that up MP-R. Perhaps Atlantic 252 will also remember something better from then than that January chart he posted.

 

No problem. Yes, January 2004 brought brief cold spells, and the famous thundersnow event on the 28th followed by sparkling sunshine on the 29th but it was a quick return to mild and wet by month's close. The second half of February however was consistently chilly/cold with a snowy final week. It remained quite cold until the 12th March battleground snow that ushered in an unsettled remainder of the month. The late Feb spell brought the classic problem of gorgeous sunshine quickly melting the snow despite its depth.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

In that case the event I'm referring to when I was at work could very well have been January. But I'm sure the London trip was in February and I know we had some snow shortly beforehand because I remember on the way (when we were still round here) my Mum saying 'I wonder if we'll get any more snow'. So maybe I'm getting these events confused (it was nearly 13 years ago now I suppose). Anyway based on that Winter 2003/04 wasn't necessarily a too bad Winter, if nothing too special. Thanks again .

[weather_it_will]

I can't see any interest in the models until at least middle of January 2017 for anyone that likes snow.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

missed me I think 

[Seasonality]

10 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

well, sometimes dosen't matter how you forecast, like I have been telling everyone I know, that this will be a snow free month, I'm that confident, so I am an extreme amateur, but maybe I have 'forecast' right

I certainly tell everyone to ignore papers and believe me

You mean you guessed right. There is a difference.

[Seasonality]

7 hours ago, 'ColdIsBest' said:

I can't see any interest in the models until at least middle of January 2017 for anyone that likes snow.

What models do you look at that go out to mid January?

[knocker]

The priorities of the other thread show up in stark detail when the peeps are more concerned about a few snow showers, the temps, and the rest of the winter, rather than the possibility of a destructive storm impacting parts of the UK.

[Ben Lewis]

Why do certain members in the MAD thread assume we all want a pattern change from this dry weather to atlantic based or 'weather action' as one particular regular keeps suggesting.

Cold Zonality produces nothing down here in the SE, am I suppose to be happy that the hill tops of Scotland might get snow .. Nothing new there.

If it isn't going to get cold (and i dont mean cold incursions) then I would much prefer to stay where we are, as lets be perfectly honest, if it isn't this dry weather then its boring rain and I'm not quite sure why anybody would think anything different.

[EML Network]

This month I have become really disillusioned with all of the medium to Long Range models and all of the data that is gathered, analysed and interpreted.

There was a really bouyant mood in here given that everything seemed to be gunning for a decent cold snap/spell this month and to all intensive purposes if we'd believed what we'd read on the various threads...then we should right now all be enjoying a decent cold spell and the first widespread snow event of the winter. 

 

Instead we've been stuck in a no mans land with the Atlantic waiting in the wings to ruin the xmas period with strong winds and heavy rain (Yes I have seen the XMas day 00z gfs run and it does look cold....for a whole day.!!! ...big deal)

I really enjoy ready the strat thread...I enjoy reading about the various Wave events...Mountain Torques....Nicks Short Wave fascintation....the list goes on. 

 

At the end of the day I really don't think were any closer to knowing what the weather will do post 15 days...than we did 10 or 20 years ago.

I'm still going to read the threads and posts with interest, but I really will take it all with a huge pinch of salt, until I see a chart showing cold and snow potential IMBY at +96 then I really am not going to get myself excited about anything.

This December there hasn't really been any indication that cold was going to head this way...the only place I've seen any indication that this would happen....has been on this forum.

 

I love you guys and gals dearly...but I think were all chasing shadows and looking further and further out in time to put together pieces if a jigsaw that's not yet been made.

 

[Gowon]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

The priorities of the other thread show up in stark detail when the peeps are more concerned about a few snow showers, the temps, and the rest of the winter, rather than the possibility of a destructive storm impacting parts of the UK.

Because the majority of us haven't seen snow falling for a few years!

I'd prefer it to snow for the majority of winter...seriously though, why does it annoy you that certain folks would prefer cold and snow? Come summertime, certain folks will be hunting heatwaves (including myself) and I bet you won't come in here moaning about it.