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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter


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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

With the PV cranking up we can right of January for a sustained cold spell too.

An early SSW in February is our last hope.

 

"Help us Obi-Wan Kenobie (Fergieweather). You're our only hope"

:pardon:

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

With the PV cranking up we can right of January for a sustained cold spell too.

An early SSW in February is our last hope.

 

 
 

Hmm the 06z shows it weakening again towards months end

gfsnh-0-360.png?6gfsnh-0-384.png?6

gfsnh-1-360.png?6gfsnh-1-384.png?6

Ens shows this too

18th

gensnh-21-1-174.png?6

27th

gensnh-21-1-384.png?6

 

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

With the PV cranking up we can right (write!) of January for a sustained cold spell too.

An early SSW in February is our last hope.

 

Do you enjoy trying to wind people up with such nonsense?

P.S. "right off?" :pardon:

Edited by Seasonality
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

You know things aren't looking good when it's a Sunday in December and there isn't a single comment in the model thread about the 12Z GFS which has rolled out to 150 hours now...

Its...horrific,it..really..is...:wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

i wonder what the record high temp is for the 21st the shortest day the GFS is surely on its way to setting a new record it sure beats rain

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
1 hour ago, Seasonality said:

Do you enjoy trying to wind people up with such nonsense?

P.S. "right off?" :pardon:

Nah! No wind up, for one how can you moan about something that hasn't happened yet....And come on! how can you make a statement like "an SSW in February is our last hope" .......on December 11:blink2:wind up! the reverse for me, :rofl:

Edited by Dancerwithwings
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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset

Beats me how anyone can write off two months ahead, when the pro's struggle to get it right from one week to the next:D

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
4 minutes ago, 78/79 said:

Beats me how anyone can write off two months ahead, when the pro's struggle to get it right from one week to the next:D

Because the forecast is now for a stronger polar vortex and when that kicks in, it's easy to forecast.

Despite the multi billions that have been spent on super computers we are still no nearer to being able to accurately forecast cold to these islands.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
5 minutes ago, knocker said:

There is a strong whiff of cordite in the air these days.

Yeah! Pass the bullets round :D

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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
40 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Because the forecast is now for a stronger polar vortex and when that kicks in, it's easy to forecast.

Despite the multi billions that have been spent on super computers we are still no nearer to being able to accurately forecast cold to these islands.

Writes off expert forecasts and makes own forecast two months ahead. Apply the meto, you're clearly a meteorological genius. :santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

when you see +12 uppers in this evenings ECM run you no when things have changed big time if only we could get those sorts of uppers in july and not on the shortest days of the year the days of scandi hp and greenland hp are all gone bar from the few die hard deniers:hi:

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Posted
  • Location: West Northants
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Winters, Warm Summers.
  • Location: West Northants

All I can say is when we get the next cold spell hit then I intend to ramp the f**k out of it after these last coulple of winters! Any other coldies feel like me? It will come just a matter of when not if.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
2 minutes ago, JOPRO said:

All I can say is when we get the next cold spell hit then I intend to ramp the f**k out of it after these last coulple of winters! Any other coldies feel like me? It will come just a matter of when not if.

 

Jopro, I'm the first one to say.... I'm with you all the way.... And full hammer with it mate....:)

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Jopro, I'm the first one to say.... I'm with you all the way.... And full hammer with it mate....:)

Count me in, and y'all know my views! If I start ramping cold, get ready for ice age LOL!

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Posted
  • Location: Aberfoyle 50m asl
  • Weather Preferences: any storms
  • Location: Aberfoyle 50m asl

850s of +10 for Scotland on the shortest day I'm pretty sure it was only +8 on the longest day .I was always a bit sceptical about man made climate change now I am starting to think that it's true and we have definitely broke the planet.

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Posted
  • Location: West Northants
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Winters, Warm Summers.
  • Location: West Northants
20 minutes ago, JOPRO said:

All I can say is when we get the next cold spell hit then I intend to ramp the f**k out of it after these last coulple of winters! Any other coldies feel like me? It will come just a matter of when not if.

 

Only problem with my comment is the when part! Could be next week,month,2 months next winter but it will come! Just feels like we are paying for the good run of cold winters we had in 08/09 09/10 10/11 and 12/13. Think we would rather have had them rationed out every couple of years if we knew the current snow drought we are stuck in was coming. I did manage a day or so of lying snow last winter which on the face of it was a major snow event in the context of that winter! 

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