Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, MidnightSnow said:

If there's one silver lining it's nobody really knows what the weather will be like in 10+ days time. That's about all the optimism I can scrape up at the moment.

I do, Mild

[MidnightSnow]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I do, Mild

Do you have any proof?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

just models and instinct really, what models showing, this pattern lasts at least 3 weeks, and we are dominated by the Atlantic, would say at least 2 named storms between mid Dec to new year

[Yarmy]

Haven't looked at the model output for a few days, but jeezo, it's desperate stuff. The complete absence of any amplification even in the wilder reaches of the GFS suggests nothing of note before 2017 (to be fair, I've only looked at this evening's output, but I presume it's been much the same for a while?)

(And for the love of God, please stop posting "time to get the BBQ out" as you will be 58 trillionth poster to make the same "joke")

 

 

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

This is what I associate Xmas with weatherwise, 

 

Indeed, chilly and sunny. Was quite a nice fresh breather between the wind tunnels that were the 23rd and 27th.

[Blessed Weather]

Liam Dutton, the Channel 4 weather guy, tweeting this evening that "no strong signal" for Xmas week, so "stay tuned". Well I hope he's seen something we haven't!

Just looked at weather charts for start of Christmas week. Still very uncertain and no strong signal for how mild/cold it'll be. Stay tuned!

And meanwhile NOAA rub the salt in with an image of how cold North America & Canada are today.

[Mark wheeler]

So after all the promise and postitive vibes regarding winter well since about the time we reached 30c in September a great many of us are coming down to earth with a Big Bang and are trying to last the 10 second count after trying to get up off the canvass . Anyway you just never know the weather will do what it likes in the end of the day and I'm holding some faith that things may flip in our favour .As someone who loves this site and appreciates the time posters put in I say I'm no expert but don't lose faith stick with it because one day hopefully soon we will all be rewarded surely . I might start resorting to snow prayers soon.

 

[MP-R]

Given the dire situation at the moment (note I say at the moment, not in more than a few days time), I would quite happily settle for high pressure over the UK bringing sunshine and frost to all. Perhaps a nice February 2008 style two-week period with both in abundance while the Atlantic throws a tantrum then something more interesting around Christmas onwards.

[Country Boy]

Fishy is going for a wet and windy Christmas...but all I can see is high pressure.

Hum...he has been wrong before

 

[Matthew.]

I wonder if the cold North America against the unusually warm western Atlantic is firing up the Jet? Whatever the case there's some contrasting Atlantic temps:

[booferking]

I find myself watching old bbc weather forecasts from the 90s thinking it will make the charts flip haha,  i always remember the Christmas of 1995 it was brill.

[smilersnow]

This is exhausting. one minute we are looking at a bartlet high the next an encroaching beast from the east. no doubt all change again in the morning! 

[Woollymummy]

Karlos - the bowl of petunias thing, it's from Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, poor thing keeps being reincarnated over and over again.(From the Model thread, but not really going to post it there....)

[Trom]

Some digs at the meto tonight on the model pages.  Reality is they do a great job but the info we get is terrible given it is tax payer funded.  We just get the statements about the long range models but don't see the output.  I get that they need to attract external revenue but so does ECMWF and even they give us more output.

Personally to have this wealth of knowledge domestically and tax payer funded should mean we get to see a lot more of it in my opinion.  The loss of the BBC contract might mean the meto come under greater pressure to release more of their data.  It's great that Ian F posts but it's not really a proper substitute for actually seeing the data.

With the loss of the BBC they move further towards being an academic institution.  As a lecturer myself the mandate I was told was "publish or die" and I think this resonates in academic circles.

Anyway this thread is where you are meant to be able to moan - so there this one's been bugging me for some time.

[Jonathan Bollen]

I think what the models are saying it's going to me a mid winter again like last year. Nit banking on it yet but that's what is going to happen. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Jonathan Bollen said:

I think what the models are saying it's going to me a mid winter again like last year. Nit banking on it yet but that's what is going to happen. 

Agree, and what could be worse is if the high is to our east, it could get very wet as systems won't get far enough east to clear the UK, could be looking at flooding issues, especially for western areas

[snowblizzard]

Euro High, Low pressure in the Atlantic

Perhaps battleground UK

 But, as usual in UK, we are pretty much stuck in yellow/orange air mass sectors

And, it's going to take a monumental shift in pattern to change this annoying regime that has become a common set-up in recent winters. 

I really thought it would be different this winter.

Meanwhile, USA are suffering again with deep cold and snow!

Damn!!

 

Edited December 10, 2016 by snowblizzard

[pegg24]

25 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Euro High, Low pressure in the Atlantic

Perhaps battleground UK

 But, as usual in UK, we are pretty much stuck in yellow/orange air mass sectors

And, it's going to take a monumental shift in pattern to change this annoying regime that has become a common set-up in recent winters. 

I really thought it would be different this winter.

Meanwhile, USA are suffering again with deep cold and snow!

Damn!!

 

Same old story every year isn't it really.  wow look at the 4ft of snow in USA I hate seeing it now as we get sod all. lol

[Captain Shortwave]

The models tending to extend the dry weather which covers most of central Europe and the south east of the UK at the moment to cover most of the UK in the coming 10 days and if the GEFs are correct then perhaps positioning the high very close to the UK so a tend to see temperatures drop closer to normal as the mild flow slowly becomes cut off, the south east obviously seeing the cool down first.

      

We can see the ensembles trending more southerly in wind direction. 

GEFs longer term

      

The anomalies show the ridge over our side strengthening and pushing further north, though no clear signal of developing a true cold signal from this with no low anomalies to our south. Looking at the ensemble members, there is a real mix in there but no real ones showing a zonal signal, just variations on where heights are place (A few UK/Euro highs and well as blocks to our north east or north west).

So the theme remains dry for a lot of people, with areas further north and west slowly joining in over time.

[northwestsnow]

What a depressing climate we have.

Message ends.

[johncam]

Yes indeed , warm rain in summer , slightly colder rain in winter , dreadful climate!!!! 

[JOPRO]

Well first time back on here for 3 weeks been abroad and had little Internet access, first hint I had things have gone wrong  for cold was when I got on the plane for my flight home and the pilot told us the temp for London, then I came on here and went through the forum for a catch up this morning. All I can say is what a sack of sh*t the output is for cold copared to when I left! How has it come to this!  So I have done what I did the last couple of winters hit the ignore button for certain posters and stick my head in the sand an latch on to any remote hope of cold! If your a cold whether fan in winter like me it's the best way forward!  If nothing else works a total pig headed unwillingness to looks facts  in the face will see us through!,

 

[stewfox]

14 hours ago, clactongaz said:

Fishy is going for a wet and windy Christmas...but all I can see is high pressure.

Hum...he has been wrong before

 

We need a better tool to find this 'signal' for cold

Uncle Pete bringing it in now.

 

[Tony Beets]

Some terrible posts today in the mod thread, rose tinted glasses on both weather preference sides! I'm sure some just post for a reaction, a good debate is what it's all about on here, not fishing for an argument with misleading statements. 

Enjoy your weekend guys!!

[knocker]

I see it's have a go at IDO day today; well at least it gives me and Sidney a rest.