Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

and that makes a hell of a difference to low level snow, especially of PM air, 0.2° warmer, January even worse

[I remember Atlantic 252]

now this is 384, so won't happen quite like this, but I reckon some sort of record to be broken somewhere this Xmas, either windiest, strongest gust, wettest, or mildest ever, maybe even lowest pressure, or maybe more than one

[cyclonic happiness]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

now this is 384, so won't happen quite like this, but I reckon some sort of record to be broken somewhere this Xmas, either windiest, strongest gust, wettest, or mildest ever, maybe even lowest pressure, or maybe more than one

Hopefully, coldest and snowiest :-p    The weather in this country is getting less and less varied nowadays, that's what is the worst. Just a long run of perpetual Autumn. We don't even seem to be able to get proper heatwaves in the past few years, maybe one day here, another there.   :-(   And we've not had a single thunderstorm this year, no hail, no squalls.   

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Hopefully, coldest and snowiest :-p    The weather in this country is getting less and less varied nowadays, that's what is the worst. Just a long run of perpetual Autumn. We don't even seem to be able to get proper heatwaves in the past few years, maybe one day here, another there.   :-(   And we've not had a single thunderstorm this year, no hail, no squalls.   

trend last 2 summers is a Tues/wed plume, then over by Thurs! even northerly topplers becoming less, and less potent, so low levels south seeing frost and rain, maybe sleet in heavier bursts

[knocker]

There is a rumor doing the rounds that the MOD discussion thread is to be renamed the chameleon thread. Apparently the reason is that during any one day it can take on the guise of Winter discussion, upper Strat. discussion. lower Strat. discussion. the latest dance from the MJO, tropical forcing in downtown Delhi, and last but by no means least the AAM and GWO. And for the time being this is putting aside the state of the ice in the NH and any retrograde movement from Mars. It's all too much for simple souls like myself and Sidney.

Edited December 9, 2016 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Sigh, can feel the hope draining away every time i check the morning outputs, as a coldie its like going to bookies every day, and coming out penniless. I mean, 13 degrees yestsrday, and drizzle, even the christmas trees outside the shop looked depressed, sad times,....

Edited December 9, 2016 by northwestsnow

[snowblizzard]

I remember saying to my wife back in early Autumn as our air was streaming in from an Arctic/Siberian source, "what a waste of NH Blocking"!

I said if only it was the first week of January, we would be sub-zero and Kent would probably have been plastered with heavy convective snow showers & streamers!

I fear it all happened at the wrong time and we will struggle to see a similar set-up for some considerable time.

I certainly don't think anything significant will happen this side of New Year, but just have a gut feeling that either January or February might produce one or two very exciting events?

Wishful thinking!

Edited December 9, 2016 by snowblizzard

[markyo]

Very sad times weather wise i must admit,all that early hope has gone. Looking increasing like we will be stuck in this mild dross for the foreseeable,nothing on the horizon to bring hope. Oh for a proper winter.

[Ben Lewis]

14 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

ECM 12Z looks 'realistic' really wouldn't be surprised if it came off, zonal from 0 to 240, typical for December

I agree, very realistic and given its the UK's default winter pattern and the way the most recent winters have gone, I would feel very very comfortable putting a lot of money on that or there about...LOL

To add insult, my sister landed in Minneapolis yesterday to visit my brother in laws family... -7C during the day and set to turn colder with a snowstorm forecast this weekend. The city also bakes in summer, imagine living in a place with proper seasons. One can dream!

[cobbett]

Looks like December will end on a dull/mild note as usual for the UK. No sign of any cold on the ensembles so thankfully off somewhere warm pre Xmas and leave this tedious weather behind.

All these positive signs pre winter not surprisingly way off the mark as usual. Yeah I know only 9 days into winter but cant help but feel this isn't going to be a noteworthy winter

[Ben Lewis]

1 minute ago, cobbett said:

Looks like December will end on a dull/mild note as usual for the UK. No sign of any cold on the ensembles so thankfully off somewhere warm pre Xmas and leave this tedious weather behind.

All these positive signs pre winter not surprisingly way off the mark as usual. Yeah I know only 9 days into winter but cant help but feel this isn't going to be a noteworthy winter

Quite right and nothing wrong with it being only 9 days into Winter.... This was the very phrase that kept being used during the past 2 winters!!! The rest was history.

I have to say, when i read 'but we are only 7 days etc into winter' in the MAD thread it makes me cringe... Have they not learnt anything - this is the UK and we cannot afford to let any cold spell fall down the pan. 

[Gavin Hannah]

Well, see you all next year... Xmas is going to be BBQ weather once again this year. Might as well move to bloody Oz.

[snowblizzard]

17 minutes ago, Gavin Hannah said:

Well, see you all next year... Xmas is going to be BBQ weather once again this year. Might as well move to bloody Oz.

Christmas in Val Thorens for me.

It costs money to get a winter fix when you live in the UK!

Edited December 9, 2016 by snowblizzard

[Polar Maritime]

Maybe a can get to mow the lawn Christmas day again, It needs the top knocking off in any-case. 

[Jeremy Shockey]

im not throwing in the towel for Christmas week yet.

GFS has been consistent in showing an anticylconic period from 19th onwards with the possibility of raising heights over Scandinavia. UKMO has shown some hints at this also. ECM has been the model of real inconsistency in recent days.

There is still hope. ....Settled , frosty and foggy would be preferable to the zonal train of hell 

 

 

[RJBingham]

50 minutes ago, Gavin Hannah said:

Well, see you all next year... Xmas is going to be BBQ weather once again this year. Might as well move to bloody Oz.

Well, it has been snowing there! 

[Iceaxecrampon]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Sigh, can feel the hope draining away every time i check the morning outputs, as a coldie its like going to bookies every day, and coming out penniless. I mean, 13 degrees yestsrday, and drizzle, even the christmas trees outside the shop looked depressed, sad times,....

You know what Greg Lake sang......

.....but instead it just kept on raining.

So true.

RIP

[Iceaxecrampon]

A break from the models required - maybe its the mildness and those stubborn euro HP

Yes - I use this site to warn my Cumbrian relatives and all things mountaineering but

this might be the way forward.

Could do with something more festive even just on the tops - is it too hard to ask?

 

 

 

 

[MidnightSnow]

 

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

4 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

 

 

 

4 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

 

 

.was on my sons 10th Birthday - once in a lifetime - unforgettable.

[Froze were the Days]

Quote

Only a few weeks back there was many a mention on the model discussion forum 'well it's a mile away from this time last year'...and fast forward a few weeks and we have...

 

Edited December 9, 2016 by Froze were the Days
I wrote this not quoted!!!!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Game over, looks like the old folk saying is applying here - Ice in November to bear a duck.

[Ben Lewis]

Yep I can recall that as well: "we are a million miles away from this time last year'' "Vortex shredded" 

Blah blah blah.... 

[snowflakey]

Think I'll place a bet for a white Xmas, should get good odds, like 20/1at the moment,

[daz_4]

I'm not happy because I bought new winter shoes. I should have used the money for alcohol which I need more now.

Edited December 9, 2016 by daz_4