Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[SteveB]

I think it's safe to say, we are not going to see a cold snowy spell this side of Christmas going by what the charts have been showing over the last week or so. Seems to me, any chance we had of a front loaded Winter have diminished, and the cracks are starting to show in the longer range models with regards to a watering down of the colder solutions on offer.

Still plenty of time, but for me down here in the very mild South West, I really need to see some deep cold in at the right part of Winter - Late December/January to guarantee snow. 

That window of opportunity is growing smaller by the day.... 

Edited December 7, 2016 by SteveB

[Bofh]

I feel your pain Steve.

I'm in Glastonbury and can't remember the last time i saw a flake

Its looking like another green winter.

[Jonathan Bollen]

On 25/11/2016 at 15:04, Seasonality said:

Mild winter for a change? Where the hell have you been for the last few years? Not the UK I take it.

No been in the Uk for the past 3 years. 

[Seasonality]

3 minutes ago, Jonathan Bollen said:

No been in the Uk for the past 3 years. 

So then you know the last 3 years have been mild winters?

[Delka]

Just now, Seasonality said:

So then you know the last 3 years have been mild winters?

Depends on where you live, people further South have like us have felt the effects of the mild winters while further north in scotland even in these milder winters have had days of snow and frost throughout the season. People from different areas take different views on this as the weather is completely different from the far North to the South

[Seasonality]

4 minutes ago, Delka said:

Depends on where you live, people further South have like us have felt the effects of the mild winters while further north in scotland even in these milder winters have had days of snow and frost throughout the season. People from different areas take different views on this as the weather is completely different from the far North to the South

Understood but as you say, even milder winters have colder interludes for the far north. UK has definitely had milder winters the last three years compared to climatological norms though. 

[Bristawl Si]

Looking back over last 20 years it's defo got milder down here in Winter. I'm beginning to think that Winters 09/10 and 10/11 were just minor 'blips' in an overall trend.

[mountain shadow]

Model output getting worse by the day, even the previously forecast UK high is looking on shaky ground to be replaced by mild South Westerlies. Both the ECM and GFS extended have dropped virtually every sign of any HLB between now and into the New Year.

Just goes to show that a weak PV is no more likely to bring snow than a strong PV.

If the Atlantic does come back through, it may open up the prospect of a toppler around Christmas which is our only hope of a white Christmas now.

[Paul]

Couple of posts removed, some people need to calm down, you're creating a toxic atmosphere at times, and it's not something that can continue. 

[pegg24]

nobody has a clue what the weather will do in 5 to 7 days time, it proves when the met got a super computer worth millions of pounds and still cant get it right that's not a dig at the met just our little island I think. Think everytime it is showing mild 7 days out its always right.  The cold can be shown then go wrong at the last minute

I read the Model forum all the time try to take things in most of it is above me to be honest.

 

 

[SteveB]

24 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Looking back over last 20 years it's defo got milder down here in Winter. I'm beginning to think that Winters 09/10 and 10/11 were just minor 'blips' in an overall trend.

The fact that we haven't had a frontal snow event since the 1980's tell's a telling picture. I remember the 1978/79 & 1981/82 events, that's something I've not seen since.

[swfc]

I think a lot of people have been hanging on the meto forecasts to much and expecting a cold snowy spell was always on a dodgy wicket.It seems every time it updates it gets further away and watered down ete.Not a dig at anyone but i think the longrange forecasts are a bit to sketchy and sometimes to flexible!!!.Given our normal default set up in the uk it has been very blocked ete and dry but tbh its a bit boring imo.

[booferking]

N.Ireland has just matched it warmest Dec day on record 16c Eglinton derry did someone mention mild blip.  I think its more than a mild blip almost a heat wave over here

 

And the 16c are growing all over the country .

Edited December 7, 2016 by booferking

[swfc]

Just now, booferking said:

N.Ireland has just matched it warmest Dec day on record 16c Eglinton derry did someone mention mild blip.  I think its more than a mild blip almost a heat wave over here

that will be the front loaded winter kicking in then!!!!!

[blizzard81]

Just now, swfc said:

that will be the front loaded winter kicking in then!!!!!

Ha ha, you really do have to laugh Funny thing is I was certain a cold, snowy spell was on the way before xmas, especially after the last few foggy days. Losing confidence in this now though. Constantly chasing rainbows!

[northwestsnow]

Pathetic excuse for a December looking odds on, AGAIN, is it asking too much for something seasonal in the run up to xmas? It would appear it is.... 

[SteveB]

If & it's still an "if" nothing cold materialises as some of these long range charts have been showing, then surely they have to be re-programmed to lean more to the climatology norm which is what we tend to see more & more as winters come and go, cold/deep cold really is like winning the lottery for the people of Western Europe, your in the game, but you never get the winning ticket.... 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, SteveB said:

If & it's still an "if" nothing cold materialises as some of these long range charts have been showing, then surely they have to be re-programmed to lean more to the climatology norm which is what we tend to see more & more as winters come and go, cold/deep cold really is like winning the lottery for the people of Western Europe, your in the game, but you never get the winning ticket.... 

large teapot, scorn all we want but

.....

[Seasonality]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

large teapot, scorn all we want but

.....

Thats 'The Modern Winter' for anyone who was wondering 

[marksiwnc]

3 hours ago, Seasonality said:

Moon cycles lol. Is that you Piers Corbyn?  

 

 

The recent weather patterns changed after the last cycle so who's to know...  no not corbyn.  Nathan rao is the name hahahahahahahahahaha (obviously joking) 

[Seasonality]

5 minutes ago, marksiwnc said:

The recent weather patterns changed after the last cycle so who's to know...  no not corbyn.  Nathan rao is the name hahahahahahahahahaha (obviously joking) 

Sponsored by netweather.tv  Poor old Michael having to grin around that prize prat.

[cheese]

15C with sunshine here - I'd be fine with this for the rest of winter. Just as long as it doesn't rain.

[mountain shadow]

So, the Murrster is pretty much writing off snow down South until at least mid January and a recent post in the Strat thread reckons no favourable blocking until February. In other words, a normal Winter looks likely.

I have to agree with this assessment and I reckon the only chance of snow is from a Northerly toppler.

[frosty ground]

11 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

So, the Murrster is pretty much writing off snow down South until at least mid January and a recent post in the Strat thread reckons no favourable blocking until February. In other words, a normal Winter looks likely.

I have to agree with this assessment and I reckon the only chance of snow is from a Northerly toppler.

That will do me...... plenty of snow from those setups here.

[Abyss]

13 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

So, the Murrster is pretty much writing off snow down South until at least mid January and a recent post in the Strat thread reckons no favourable blocking until February. In other words, a normal Winter looks likely.

I have to agree with this assessment and I reckon the only chance of snow is from a Northerly toppler.

But only last week most if not all thought it would be a bumper December. Look how that turned out thus far. People need to get a grip its the 7th of December. All the predictions have been hogwash

Edited December 7, 2016 by Abyss