Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

following the bloody parallel 

this is the setup though most common in Dec

[Southender]

Vile output cold/snow wise. May as well re-locate to the Canaries. Time for a week off model watching, hopefully by then we will be seeing better cold output for Xmas week.

[The PIT]

Well at least a week of mild stuff coming up and sadly worst type of mild crud. No stormy weather just dry and cloudy mostly for us bar one hiccup on Thursday which is looking wet.

[joggs]

Time for a break

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes GFS 00Z is warm all the way, apart from deepest FI, some charts on offer rival last Dec, at least better than 18Z's rainfest in FI, could be some temp records set this year, date records etc in certain places

not saying warmer month than Dec '15, as it's started cold

[rain_shadow]

1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Well at least a week of mild stuff coming up and sadly worst type of mild crud. No stormy weather just dry and cloudy mostly for us bar one hiccup on Thursday which is looking wet.

Some would argue if the lack of storms is the "worst" type of mild crud, especially in previously flooded and coastal areas. It is boring tho but at least not too much rain..

Edited December 7, 2016 by rain_shadow

[daz_4]

God dammit, where did that cold blast to central EU go? Ugh.

Edited December 7, 2016 by daz_4

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, rain_shadow said:

Some would argue if the lack of storms is the "worst" type of mild crud, especially in previously flooded and coastal areas. It is boring tho..

to me, worst type of Dec to Feb weather is 'cold zonality' polar maritime air bringing relentless rain from southerly tracking lows, then relentless showers coming in from cheshire gap, with temps between 2-5°

would rather my rain fell at 13°

[rain_shadow]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

to me, worst type of Dec to Feb weather is 'cold zonality' polar maritime air bringing relentless rain from southerly tracking lows, then relentless showers coming in from cheshire gap, with temps between 2-5°

would rather my rain fell at 13°

Totally agree.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, rain_shadow said:

Totally agree.

all depends on location, Scottish members high up would be great

[Seasonality]

12 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

God dammit, where did that cold blast to central EU go? Ugh.

Inter run variation. Note ecm gives a mid way solution to what you posted there and the op was definitely on the milder side for central Europe. Plenty of much colder options.

[mountain shadow]

GP really putting his rep on the line after last years misfiring torpedo.

He seems fairly confident of height rises to the North or North West in the 2.5-4 week timeframe.

Precious little sign of that in the extended.

[sundog]

what was that statistic? A sept cet greater then 16.0c or thereabouts has never been followed by a cold winter. hmmmmmmmm

[Wimbledon88]

Well so much for the return to cold weather after a mild blip. These so called professionals make me laugh( despair). Do they not know that when we get high pressure this time of the year,nine times out of ten,it migrates into central Europe and sits there for weeks!??!Egg on faces methinks!

 

 

 

 

 

[northwestsnow]

Curse of the large teapot theory again? Every single time there is a whiff of hope the Atlantic shuts the door, seemingly every winter...

[booferking]

Some front loaded mild weather hiiting N.Ireland 16c at 10am

 

[Mark wheeler]

At this rate the dafoldils will be Growing in December again . Arrgghhhhh. The weather might be different this year but it's not what the doctor ordered for most anyway .

[Seasonality]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

GP really putting his rep on the line after last years misfiring torpedo.

He seems fairly confident of height rises to the North or North West in the 2.5-4 week timeframe.

Precious little sign of that in the extended.

His reputation on the line? Really? He has access to much more than we do and a much better grasp of the myriad drivers behind the weather. Even the best forecaster cannot guarantee an outcome 100%.

[Ben Lewis]

10 minutes ago, SW1988 said:

Well so much for the return to cold weather after a mild blip. These so called professionals make me laugh( despair). Do they not know that when we get high pressure this time of the year,nine times out of ten,it migrates into central Europe and sits there for weeks!??!Egg on faces methinks!

 

 

 

 

 

Only 'egg on faces' to folk on this forum and weather enthusiasts who follow LRF and professionals twitter feed etc.

For the 95% of people living in the UK they are none the wiser, they have never been fed a cold outlook from different sources.

Apart from METO with a  'colder than average winter' probable and John Hammond explaining the Winter contingency plans on BBC online - but again no one I know (Non weather enthusiasts - General public) are even likely to be aware of this.

[marksiwnc]

Well I'm with gp on this one. I personally like the connection between weather and the moon cycles so I'm edging towards around 29/12 for new pattern due to new moon cycle.  who know tho yeah 

[Seasonality]

16 minutes ago, SW1988 said:

Well so much for the return to cold weather after a mild blip. These so called professionals make me laugh( despair). Do they not know that when we get high pressure this time of the year,nine times out of ten,it migrates into central Europe and sits there for weeks!??!Egg on faces methinks!

 

 

 

 

 

Except the later output isn't showing a Euro slug at all. I'm hoping that it verifies so all of these armchair critics who keep rubbishing the professionals who put so much hard work into their forecasts will be quiet. Then we'll see which face has egg on it.

[Seasonality]

4 minutes ago, marksiwnc said:

Well I'm with gp on this one. I personally like the connection between weather and the moon cycles so I'm edging towards around 29/12 for new pattern due to new moon cycle.  who know tho yeah 

Moon cycles lol. Is that you Piers Corbyn?  

 

 

[cheeky_monkey]

22 minutes ago, SW1988 said:

Well so much for the return to cold weather after a mild blip. These so called professionals make me laugh( despair). Do they not know that when we get high pressure this time of the year,nine times out of ten,it migrates into central Europe and sits there for weeks!??!Egg on faces methinks!

 

 

 

 

 

it wont it and will get cold take my word for it..im expecting a cold last week of December and a below average Jan and Feb..take it from one that knows..

[Ben Lewis]

2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Except the later output isn't showing a Euro slug at all. I'm hoping that it verifies so all of these armchair critics who keep rubbishing the professionals who put so much hard work into their forecasts will be quiet. Then we'll see which face has egg on it.

The fact you are having to support your comment with a D14 chart says it all really. 

 

 

[Delka]

14 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

I know it's a long shot but we can't write off a White Christmas yet really. We all know that things can pop up very short notice. Think back to Christmas 2004, that wasn't forseen until a few days before (maybe only a couple or so) Also as recently as late December 2014 there was some wet snow on Boxing Day evening (ok here at least it was very wet and only left a thin and slushy covering) but that was also only picked up on briefly before it happened. Truth is we won't have any true idea until the week leading up to it, so for now at least we can all continue to keep dreaming of a White Christmas  .

We're on the coast of Norfolk and got nearly 2 inches from the boxing day overnight snow.. Haven't had any since though! Bring on a chilly snowy cold spell the week of Christmas and New Year!