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Paul

Netweather Winter Forecast - 2016/17

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Just bumping this as it was posted and hidden earlier.

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Good luck with the forecast. I think the cold will be later in the winter, but as long as there is cold/snow at some point, it doesn't matter when it arrives.

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Right that's enough for me , I'm ordering my sledge,  skies and hot water bottle .

Seriously though  Thankyou to both .I hope your right about the first half at least.

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Wow, that took some digesting....superbly presented. Time will tell if it's a good forecast. :)

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A fantastic read, well done Tony and Matt. A lot of positivity can be taken from that. :)

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When you read this excellent forecast it hits home just how many variables are outside of normal parameters - many at record levels and some not behaving in the way normally expected. Clearly a very challenging year in which to formulate a winter forecast. Many thanks for your hard work Matt and Tony.

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Huge thanks for the enormous workload, anyone trying a forecast in this most unusual of seasons with parameters all over the place deserves a bravery award! Good luck with your hard work...

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my thoughts is that we will have a northerly flow bringing freezing cold air from the arctic bringing widespread snow at times for early December but then a transition to more stormy conditions and milder for a time mid-month before colder wintry weather returns for the end of December coinciding with the Christmas period. i think January will start of wintry with northerly winds blowing more frequently than normal and a fairly blocked pattern to the north of us then for the middle of January through to the end of February i think we will see a generally zonal pattern with some stormy weather but with the jet stream further south than a normal zonal pattern should be then storms will probably be affecting more southern parts of UK and France. with cold northerly wakes in between systems so zonal but with wintry weather behind storms. this is just my own opinion based on some model outputs.:)

 

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Expect the unexpected. At least it will be drier up here in the far North West. Hard winter for us on the way.

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A very well explained technical forecast and a thoroughly enjoyable read as usual - thanks for all the effort you've put in.  A shame Chionomaniac wasn't able to input this year but great to see Matt Hugo, another very well respected forecaster, on board with Lorenzo.  Thanks to Netweather as well for keeping these excellent forecasts free of charge!  Looking forward to the regular updates as well.

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Irrespective of the outcome a very impressive synopsis of the current state of play and a very clear and concise presentation of the forecast. Congrats to you both as much time,effort and expertise obviously went into this.

Edited by knocker
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Well done Tony and Matt on a well presented and detailed forecast - I will have a look in a bit more detail later but agree wholeheartedly with the direction winter will take. Fingers crossed and good luck guys.

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Thank you for all the comments - much appreciated, hellishly difficult forecast to piece together this year.

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A good read guys-well presented covering pretty much all the background factors.Not easy this year-is it ever,lol 

Appreciate the work and time you both have put in-good luck with it.:)

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I get the feeling that this will prove an interesting Winter this time around ? I am eager to see just how the extreme forcings work themselves out over the Season as , I believe, we are heading into a direction/pattern of winters that will become increasingly common as our Planet responds to warming?

The only niggle was your use of 'Super Nino' for the 15/16 moderate Nino event?

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Great read, so many variables, but I hope your near the mark..  I'm sure some unforseen situation will appear, messing all that hard work up though, as it always does.. But thanks anyway!  :-)

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Re-reading this again and one thing in particular from the posted charts that stands out for me is that isolated dark blue rectangle amongst the oranges in the declining solar / NAO chart.  If I've read the forecast as intended, I believe this is what we'd be looking at - another blue block in this line for a negative NAO in a declining solar flux regime?  

Is that blue block in cycle 17 winter 1939-40? The chart archive suggests Nov 1939 wasn't really similar to the current November with quite an unsettled zonal flow, but high pressure builds in to the UK and then Greenland after mid-Dec 1939 bringing a setup which seems to resemble perhaps what the winter forecast might suggest?  I doubt 1939-40 is a valid analogue to our current setup given this was a strong solar cycle and the sea ice extent must have been much greater than today's record minimum, but thought it was an interesting anomaly.  Does anyone know whether there were any other similarities in 1939, e.g. ENSO etc? I guess stratospheric data isn't available that far back?  

Of course I could have misread the chart and this could be a completely different winter...

Rslp19391219.gif Rslp19400114.gif

Edited by virtualsphere
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Hi Tony and Matt

Just wanted to say thank you for all the hard work, thought, and preparation that must have gone into this forecast. You are very clever men and I am envious haha :)

I just about understood it all but what a fantastic read! Expertly put together and so very interesting.

Good luck with the forecast and heres to us all seeing some snow, cheers! :cold::friends::drunk-emoji:

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What an illuminating and fascinating forecast. I need a fibre supplement just to digest it haha. Hats off to you both for all the hard work and expertise that went into the forecast. Lets see how this rollercoaster winter pans out...

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@virtualsphere Sorry, I have not looked at specific winter within that period - the lead here is around solar flux and position on the current cycle - see images attached. The NAO from cycle 17 is noted as anomalous within the paper.

all.gifsolar cycle forcing.PNG

Thanks to Anthony M for the excellent link to WSO - some great plots here http://wso.stanford.edu/#Synoptic

Over the next couple of weeks will add some of the 'working out' and reanalysis to this thread as I don't mind it being out there subject to debate / feedback.

From last month here is some analog reads of the solar position- these based purely on solar and no other variables in the mix so to speak, the table details historic solar readings filtered for similar weighted years taken from the source data at ESRL http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/solar.data

Solar Flux Analog Tables.JPG

Solar Flux November Composite.png

Solar Flux November DJF Composite.png

 

isunspots_daily_2008-2016.png

Edited by lorenzo
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