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Here is my post this Morning on the first to effect Southern England
50/50 chance of a TD from this development currently leaving the Yucatan peninsula & headed WNW around 10mph over the bay of campeche.
Recon to investigate 94L tomorrow although dry air is evident nearby & shear will contine to affect, but sst's are highly favorable & the geography of the BOC helps development,
Texan ridge steers westwards away from mainland southern states but we could see TS Danielle at mexican landfall late monday/early tuesday?
More interest to whats become a volatile start to this years season!
Just when many thought the Atlantic hurricane season would be getting to a close, a new tropical cyclone has developed over the Bahamas. The system has been designated as Tropical Depression 12, and will be named Kate if it turns into a tropical storm.
The forecast track from the NHC recurves the system gradually towards the northeast while the system strenghens slowly. In about 3 days, TD 12 will be absorbed by another low pressure area.
Forecast track of TD 12 by NOAA.
By summer blizzard
TD11 has become a Tropical Storm. Model spread in intensity and track is fairly high but it looks as though the system will be close to the east coast in a few days with a potential impact somewhere between Virginia and Newfoundland. With the moisture plume from 99L also tracking up the coast, rain totals where models show impact are excessive at as much as 10 inches of rain.
Visible satellite imagery this morning shows that the cloud pattern
of the tropical cyclone is somewhat better organized than it was 24
hours ago. The low-level center is situated near the northern side
of the main area of deep convection due to northerly shear. The
upper level outflow is well defined over the southern semicircle of
the system, and restricted over the northern part of the
circulation. The current intensity is conservatively set at 45 kt,
which is a little below the latest Dvorak estimates. An Air Force
plane will be investigating Joaquin in a few hours, and should
provide a better estimate of intensity.
Based on the satellite center fixes, the initial motion continues
to be slowly westward, or 260/04 kt. The forecast track in
this advisory attempts to reconcile large model spread with an
overall shift toward the southwest of the previous track through 72
hours. Joaquin is currently in a relatively weak steering pattern,
but a building shortwave ridge in the northwestern Atlantic should
allow the cyclone to drift west and then west-southwestward. This
pushes the storm in the direction of the Bahamas, but the
deterministic and ensemble model consensus still shows a good
likelihood that Joaquin will stop fairly well short of the Bahamas,
and then begin accelerating to either the north or northeast. The
00Z ECMWF made a closer approach to the Bahamas, but it too turns
the storm sharply and accelerates it back into the Atlantic beyond
72 hours. The official forecast is to the left of the previous
forecast through 72 hours, and significantly slower at 4 and 5
days. It should be repeated that the confidence in the track
forecast is very low.
The vertical shear is predicted by the dynamical models to decrease
in 1 to 2 days. This should allow for additional strengthening,
which is reflected in the official forecast. The NHC wind speed
predictions may be conservative, since some of the guidance suggests
that Joaquin could become a hurricane in a few days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/1500Z 26.5N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 26.4N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 26.3N 72.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 26.2N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 26.1N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 26.0N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 29.0N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
Recon en route today.
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