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December 2016 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2016-17 competition year


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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    say if it's 8.6C , will I win or Craig? me 5.9, Craig 12.0

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    OMG thats a 1.3c jump in one day, we are going to beat last December at this rate if we don't get a  colder 2nd half of the month!:nonono:

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 5.2C should slow in a couple days to hang around in the +6C region for us. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    This month is going to screw a lot of us over!

    On 7 December 2016 at 21:30, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    say if it's 8.6C , will I win or Craig? me 5.9, Craig 12.0

    8.6-5.9= 2.7 off 

    12-8.6= 3.4 off 

    So you I'm concerned we'll end up with a December CET above 6.5 the rate things are going. T240 chart from ECM this morning is v ugly, im hoping the MJO can be our saviour to break us out this rut. I expect more twists and turns, I still believe it would be silly to declare December 'dead' yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    My average has taken a giant leap since this milder air made inroads. It is the small temperature range that has helped..

    6.2°C to the 8th, MetO region average is 4.8°C

    chart (1).png

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield up to 5.8C above six tomorrow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    5.2c here to the 8th, 1.4c above the 1981-2010 average.

    Expecting a rise to around 6c before settling around there for a while.

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    Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
    On ‎08‎/‎12‎/‎2016 at 13:44, snowray said:

    OMG thats a 1.3c jump in one day, we are going to beat last December at this rate if we don't get a  colder 2nd half of the month!:nonono:

    Even if everyday from the 10th onwards averaged 9.7c (last December's mean) it would finish on 8.7c. So yes an utterly horrendous warm month but not as bad. Those sharp frosts at the start were enough to prevent last year being broken.

    A daily average of 11.2s is required to equal last December. That's asking a lot.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Minimum today of 9.5C, while maxima were around the mid 11s, so an increase to around 6.6C is likely on tomorrows update.

    After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

    6.7C to the 11th (7.1: +2.9)
    6.7C to the 12th (6.7: +2.5)
    6.8C to the 13th (7.8: +3.2)
    6.9C to the 14th (9.0: +4.6)
    7.0C to the 15th (8.0: +3.4)
    6.9C to the 16th (5.9: +1.3)
    6.9C to the 17th (6.3: +1.9)
    6.7C to the 18th (4.1: -0.3)
    6.6C to the 19th (4.3: +0.0)

    The 9.5C min today is a provisional record high for the date. Looks like another 5 days of well above average temps before things drop back toward average.

    Looking further ahead, the likely upper and lower ranges (after including the forecast for the next 5 days) is now 6.9 to 3.8C. Equalling 2010 from the 16th on would leave us on 2.7C, while equalling last year would leave us on 8.7C.

    vjMh4qQ.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    14 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

    Minimum today of 9.5C, while maxima were around the mid 11s, so an increase to around 6.6C is likely on tomorrows update.

    After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

    6.7C to the 11th (7.1: +2.9)
    6.7C to the 12th (6.7: +2.5)
    6.8C to the 13th (7.8: +3.2)
    6.9C to the 14th (9.0: +4.6)
    7.0C to the 15th (8.0: +3.4)
    6.9C to the 16th (5.9: +1.3)
    6.9C to the 17th (6.3: +1.9)
    6.7C to the 18th (4.1: -0.3)
    6.6C to the 19th (4.3: +0.0)

    The 9.5C min today is a provisional record high for the date. Looks like another 5 days of well above average temps before things drop back toward average.

    Looking further ahead, the likely upper and lower ranges (after including the forecast for the next 5 days) is now 6.9 to 3.8C. Equalling 2010 from the 16th on would leave us on 2.7C, while equalling last year would leave us on 8.7C.

    vjMh4qQ.png

    So even with a late cold blast, still unlikely to get a below average month. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield 6.6C

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    6.1c here to the 10th, 2.3c above the 1981-2010 average.

    Nothing to suggest much significant change looking in the reliable timeframe (5 days ish)

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    0.2° out so far vizzy! maybe I will be close, think that will rise for a time, then if models right in FI, could well fall again

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Still 6.6C here should fall slightly tomorrow due to the air temps getting down to 1.6C at 09:24 this morning.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    6.6 to the 12th

    1.6 above the 61 to 90 average

    1.5 above the 81 to 10 average

    ______________________________________

    Current high this month is 6.7c on the 11th

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    Down we go!:D:yahoo::drunk-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    6.2c to the 12th, 2.4c above the 1981-2010 average.

    Small rise possible over the next few days but nothing significant.

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    6.7 to the 13th

    1.8 above the 61 to 90 average

    1.6 above the 81 to 10 average

    ______________________________________

    Current high this month is 6.7c on the 11th & 13th

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Up to 6.7C in Sunny Sheffield

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    6.9 to the 14th

    2.0 above the 61 to 90 average

    1.9 above the 81 to 10 average

    ______________________________________

    Current high this month is 6.9c on the 14th

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