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December 2016 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2016-17 competition year


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Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    December average of just -1.2°C here after day 1. sarcastic.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    If it is this on the last day of the month as well then I'll be happy. Incidentally 7.2°C here to the 1st lol. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Just now, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

    17 please.

    Yikes! Is that your August prediction, Connor?:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire
    Just now, Ed Stone said:

    Yikes! Is that your August prediction, Connor?:D

    Haha, I'm just kidding. :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

    Rats.. intended to wait late to give my prediction but forgot i had not. 

    4.1C is my prediction. 

    I still see credible signs that our luck will change this side of christmas. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    9 hours ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

    17 please.

    yikes!!!!!!!!!!!!! not even I'm that much

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    Posted
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter
  • Location: Between Sidmouth and Exeter

    Ah in keeping with last year I have forgotten to enter on time again! Good start to the new competition year.

    Hopefully some sort of cold in the 2nd half but I won't go too low in case there isn't... 4.7C please

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    5.8c to the 2nd here, 2.0c above the 1981-2101 average.

    Expecting a drop over the next 4 days back down towards average before it starts a big climb mid next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Min today is 4.0C while maxima look like climbing a little over 6C, so an increase to around 4.5C is likely on tomorrows update.

    After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

    4.1C to the 4th (3.0: -3.1)
    3.7C to the 5th (2.0: -4.1)
    3.9C to the 6th (5.0: +0.0)
    4.7C to the 7th (9.2: +4.4)
    5.5C to the 8th (10.9: +6.5)
    5.9C to the 9th (9.4: +4.9)
    6.2C to the 10th (8.9: +4.6)
    6.5C to the 11th (9.6: +5.4)
    6.8C to the 12th (9.7: +5.5)

    So a big switch after 5 days, with the CET going from 2.3C below the 81-10 average on the 5th, to 1.7C above average on the 12th.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    3 hours ago, vizzy2004 said:

    5.8c to the 2nd here, 2.0c above the 1981-2101 average.

    Expecting a drop over the next 4 days back down towards average before it starts a big climb mid next week.

    I don't see your entry (just checking my table), did you want to enter before the deadline at midnight? 

    (general note to readers, if the 12z models don't change back to a colder look, I am going to take the 30 points and reposition)

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
    1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

    I don't see your entry (just checking my table), did you want to enter before the deadline at midnight? 

    (general note to readers, if the 12z models don't change back to a colder look, I am going to take the 30 points and reposition)

    Yeh go on then. 4.8°C for me please

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    Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)

    4.4 for me, cheers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Okay will add those two into the table of entries (see earlier post for link, it's in the scoring thread). The three models that I tend to trust the most have three different outcomes past about day seven. GFS looks very mild with just a few hints of colder air by the 18th or so. GEM turns the warmth into an inversion high, not a big difference in the uppers but quite a divergence in surface temps. ECM is just nondescript near normal stuff after a while.

    So I think that's enough of a doubt factor that I will ride my cold number instead of changing with a penalty. 

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    Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

    looks like it will start on the mild side for the first half my guess then will be average for the second half so 5.8c will not be far away me thinks

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, More Snow said:

    can i change my guess to 10.5 please.... just how i think this month is going to go

    I think it would be a case of run to the hills of that comes off!

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    1 hour ago, More Snow said:

    can i change my guess to 10.5 please.... just how i think this month is going to go

    If you don't call this off by midnight, I would consider it an official change in forecast. But J10 is the final arbiter. 

     

    As to the other suggestion about making the contest a calendar year thing, problem there is four seasonal components presently overlap the contest year. Again, not my call, and I have no preference. I might have won 2015 by that framework though. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
    44 minutes ago, igloo said:

    looks like it will start on the mild side for the first half my guess then will be average for the second half so 5.8c will not be far away me thinks

    I don't know if you just entered the contest or made a comment, but it's in the table now anyway. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    12 hours ago, More Snow said:

    can i change my guess to 10.5 please.... just how i think this month is going to go

    10.5c.....The look in your avatar 4698371_l1.thumb.jpg.9f20b5442117858c511 says it all.....:crazy:

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