Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

December 2016 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2016-17 competition year


Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 311
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    Below is the December CET from 1659-2015 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

    UvDmKcd.png

    The CET this month is likely to finish somewhere between 5.5 and 6.1C after corrections. The average December following Novembers within that range is 3.8C.

    The linear trend for the whole record is +0.38C per century. Following this trend gives a December CET of 4.8C.
    The linear trend since 1850 is +0.65C per century. Following this trend gives a December CET of 5.0C.
    The linear trend since 1950 is +1.16C per century. Following this trend gives a December CET of 5.1C.
    The linear trend over the last 50 years is +0.49C per century. Following this trend gives a December CET of 5.0C.
    The linear trend over the last 30 years is -0.29C per century. Following this trend gives a December CET of 4.9C.

    The recent trend of cool Decembers has now been mostly nullified by last year. The trend from the last 30 years has switched from -4.4C/century last year to -0.3C/century this year. However, we probably won't have a shot at a new record high for the 30 year average as the mid 80s had some mild Decembers which are now leaving the 30 year period.
    The standard deviation for December over the last 10 years has been the largest on record at 2.9C (previous highest was 1839-1848 at +2.54). This means the Decembers recently, as many might have guessed, have been the most variable across the entire CET record.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    This is a horrible forecast to make. High pressure likely to sit over us for a while (cold, becoming very cold). Will it sink ever so slightly and let in the gulf stream? Or will it join in with a potential split in the PV and allow NElys in? Or will it be undercut from the SW?

    The latter idea seems a bit remote right now, so I think I'll side with the sinking high idea and a return to something milder mid-month. So 5.2C please. Hope I'm wrong though!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

    4.0c please. :)

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl .

    Guess my edit upstream could be missed -

    So I now want to go in at 3.3C.

    Charts are looking even colder to me!

    MIA

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    The start to December at least is looking colder than normal, perhaps significantly so thanks to cold pooling at the surface.. key question how long will the high persevere, its a tall order to expect highs to stick in situ in December for perhaps more than 2 weeks, though unusually so we have had quite a few Decembers with such spells, Dec 1992 and 2002, more recently Dec 2006 and 2007 brought a 2 week high pressure spell. In all cases the high sunk, followed by very mild conditions. However, we do appear to be in a different state this year, with the very weak PV. With this in mind, I'm expecting it to hang around in some guise close to our shores preety much through the month, perhaps drawing in a temporary milder incursion, but then quickly putting a stop to that.

    I'll go for a cold 2.9 degrees. Chance we may pull in some significant colder uppers last week of the month which could peg it back down a few tenths of a degree.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire moorlands 252m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frosty and fresh
  • Location: Staffordshire moorlands 252m asl

    I'll take 3.7 please

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
    On 25 November 2016 at 14:41, DR(S)NO said:

    4 c please .......I think after the first week or so we will see Winter start up..... Quite convinced we will see some decent Winter weather this December ..... And my money is firmly where my mouth is with a small wager on a White Xmas

    image.gif

    After noting some of the longer range comments over on the model thread im now even more convinced we are likely to experience a great festive period.

    im also reducing my guess to 2.5c please ....Brrrr

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire SACRA MEMBER 16/122

    Can I go for 10.3c (only joking)

    2.6c please

    C.S

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

    2.6c

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

    start of dec is going to be cold but i don't think its going to last though this is the uk after all. so im going for 4.5c thanks.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    Still going for double figure max temps from around 6th Dec, probably for 1 week, CET from around 6th-13th 8° likely

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

    3.6 for me please.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, very cold (inc. anticyclonic) weather
  • Location: The Deben Valley, Suffolk

    3.9c for me please 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Archived

    This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...