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December 2016 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2016-17 competition year


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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
    5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

    Your whole point is damaged to me by December 2015. You even say yourself apart from December 2015. It's impossible to ignore. I could argue that we were long overdue a very mild December and then came 2015 and the elastic band well and truely snapped. 

    If you want to look at  a truely exceptional December statistic then look at the fact  that there has never been a December with a CET of 5.9

    I am implying that although December 2015 was the warmest December on record by a margin of 1.6*C (1.58*C) than any other in the CET record, it is still a statistic that apart from 2015, no other December has even seen a CET that has exceeded 6.5*C in the last 28 years (since 1988).  The last 28 years have still seen only one really notably mild December.  In the very warm last 28 years, to get no other December, apart from 2015, that has even recorded a CET in the 20 warmest ever is still a truly remarkable statistic when you consider that many other months of the year have managed a top 20 warmest CET on record on numerous occasions, even when not actually the warmest on record.

    December 2016 confirmed as 6.0*C; yes the statistical quirk of no 5.9 CET December still remains; Dec 2016 still a milder than average month, but again escapes the "well above average" category and still not a 6.5+ CET December, and still not the second warmest in at least the last 28 years.  In my opinion the law of averages still suggests that another well above average December with a CET over 6.5*C is due in the near future, say within the next five years.

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    Posted
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Home: Nr Malton, Howardian Hills 53m asl Work: North York Moors

    Finished at 5.8c here, 2.0c above the 1981-2010 average.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Sunny Sheffield came in 6.3C and only 30.5mm of rain. The 2nd driest we've recorded and joint 5th warmest.

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    Posted
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Halewood, Merseyside, (29M ASL)

    Well Crosby finished on 7.0°C (+2.0°C) with a total rainfall of 34.9 mm and an amazing average pressure of 1023.3 mbar. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    This is the first time that two consecutive Decembers have been warmer than their preceding Novembers since 1918 and 1919. In between those occasions, these Decembers were warmer than the November before them ... 1921, 1923, 1934, 1942, 1965, 1971, 1974, 1985, 1988, 1993 and 2013. Thus 1918 to 1921 also matched the three out of four such events in the past four years. 

    Going back further, 1915 and all three of 1910,11 and 1912 saw a warmer December than November, so that in the fourteen years 1910 to 1923 inclusive, a majority (eight) had this unusual sequence. 

    1905 was the most recent case where November and December were equal (at 4.9). Also equal at 7.4 were Nov-Dec of 1828 and 6.9 the year before that, 1827. Also 1702 had equal 4.4 months. In 1687 (when the precision was lower) these months were equal at 6.0. In 1675 they were equal on 4.5. 

    Going even further back, these Decembers were warmer than November ... 1898, 1871, 1868, 1862, 1858, 1857, 1854, 1851, 1843, 1842, 1837, 1833, 1831, 1797, 1795, 1789, 1782, 1763, 1760, 1750, 1746, 1733, 1705, 1684, 1682, 

    I have marked the two other cases of consecutive years with a warmer December than November above, 1857-58 and 1842-43. All told, the frequency of warmer Decembers is 42 out of 358 and six more were equal. December was once warmer than the previous October (1974) and once equalled it (1842). 

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    6.75c average here on the Essex riviera, apart from many quiet misty/foggy days unbelievably dry with only 7.8mm of rain!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.

    It was only 5.7C here. I live in a bit of a valley near the Great Ouse and those last few cold days with fog that never really lifted battered the average. Only 0.9C on the 27th, -1.9C on the 28th, -2.2C on the 29th and 1.1C on the 30th.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
    15 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

    This is the first time that two consecutive Decembers have been warmer than their preceding Novembers since 1918 and 1919. In between those occasions, these Decembers were warmer than the November before them ... 1921, 1923, 1934, 1942, 1965, 1971, 1974, 1985, 1988, 1993 and 2013. Thus 1918 to 1921 also matched the three out of four such events in the past four years. 

    Going back further, 1915 and all three of 1910,11 and 1912 saw a warmer December than November, so that in the fourteen years 1910 to 1923 inclusive, a majority (eight) had this unusual sequence. 

    1905 was the most recent case where November and December were equal (at 4.9). Also equal at 7.4 were Nov-Dec of 1828 and 6.9 the year before that, 1827. Also 1702 had equal 4.4 months. In 1687 (when the precision was lower) these months were equal at 6.0. In 1675 they were equal on 4.5. 

    Going even further back, these Decembers were warmer than November ... 1898, 1871, 1868, 1862, 1858, 1857, 1854, 1851, 1843, 1842, 1837, 1833, 1831, 1797, 1795, 1789, 1782, 1763, 1760, 1750, 1746, 1733, 1705, 1684, 1682, 

    I have marked the two other cases of consecutive years with a warmer December than November above, 1857-58 and 1842-43. All told, the frequency of warmer Decembers is 42 out of 358 and six more were equal. December was once warmer than the previous October (1974) and once equalled it (1842). 

    The  consecutive warmer December than November years is something I highlighted in an earlier post on the thread when contemplating this month could end up warmer than last month. 

    Still find it remarkable that it happened three times in one decade then not again for nearly a century!

    Just goes to show perhaps how our average weather is more an averaging out of different climate types rather than a consistent delivery of average conditions. Feel like we've entered a period of high influenced December's.  If that is the case, I suspect the next ten years would see the average CET remain stable, but with individual years producing extensive anomalies

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    17 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

    Going even further back, these Decembers were warmer than November ... 1898, 1871, 1868, 1862, 1858, 1857, 1854, 1851, 1843, 1842, 1837, 1833, 1831, 1797, 1795, 1789, 1782, 1763, 1760, 1750, 1746, 1733, 1705, 1684, 1682, 

    From that list, 1760 was the only year where both the June and September CETs exceeded 15C, as also happened in 2016. Starting from May, 1760 followed a very similar path to 2016 in CET terms. Unfortunately for cold seekers, this doesn't bode well for the Winter CET:

    Jan 1761: 5.4C;

    Feb 1761: 5.8C;

    March 1761: 6.8C.

     

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    The results for December 2016 CET are in, Well Done to the 1 player for getting it spot on 6.0c.

    AWD :yahoo::clapping:

    3 players were out by 0.1c with 5.9c.

    I remember Atlantic 252, Timmytour and Froze were the Days :clap:

    Dec 2016 CET.pdf

    Dec 2016 CET.xlsx

    Stats
    Not much to report on the stats this month, the average (mean) entry was 4.0c, 0.6c below the long term average and 2.0c below the actual, reflecting the cold start to the month.

    Competition ongoing
    A few points to make

    1. A Massive thanks to Roger for his work, it really is appreciated, and I don't say it enough. :clapping:

    2. If you change your user name during the year, please mention it in first subsequent post, as it makes scoring  that much easier.

    3. It was mentioned changing the competition to calendar year, I have no issues with this.

    So 3 options to me

    a) Leave it as it is   b) Make this competition 13 months. (Dec 16 to Dec 17) inclusive      c) Start the competition in Jan 17

    It makes no impact on the seasonal comp in either case.

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