December 2016 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2016-17 competition year

[NorthYorksWeather]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

6.2° likely finishing on, rise expected towards the end

Do you mean the England CET or my own station?

Tomorrow could see another sub zero mean IMBY so will be interesting to see how much it drops, however as you state a rise is likely in the final 2 days of the month.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Do you mean the England CET or my own station?

Tomorrow could see another sub zero mean IMBY so will be interesting to see how much it drops, however as you state a rise is likely in the final 2 days of the month.

England one, thought that's what CET was

[Summer Sun]

6.6 to the 28th

1.9 above the 61 to 90 average

1.9 above the 81 to 10 average

______________________________________

Current high this month is 7.1c on the 16th & 17th

[BornFromTheVoid]

CET almost certain to finish on 6.3 or 6.4C before corrections. So a likely range of 5.9C to 6.4C after corrections.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield on 6.3C  should drop to 6.2C tomorrow suspect 6.3C will be our finishing point. That would make it the joint 4th warmest we've recorded.

Interestingly we've only once gone onto have Feb and January below average with such a warm December. Indeed getting a below average Winter month is also pretty scare. This is from 1955 BTW.

Edited December 29, 2016 by The PIT

[Mapantz]

My average has subsided a bit, but still at 7.6°C which is 2.8°C above the regional average.

[Optimus Prime]

Well there are a few examples of mild/very mild December's being followed by cold Jan &/or Feb's since the 1950'2#s

53/54

54/55

55/56

77/78

84/85

85/86

86/87

Seem to appear in groups. This combination was rare in the 60's/90's/2000's but these were the decades where all the cold December's were at. Maybe a new trend is about to occur.

 

[Chris.R]

6 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

My average has subsided a bit, but still at 7.6°C which is 2.8°C above the regional average.

 Your regional average is lower than mine even though I'm further north lol.

i'm currently on 7.1°C, 2.1°C above average  according to my trusty Netatmo station. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

I have to say, apart from the exceptional 2015, there have been no notably mild Decembers in the CET since 1988; only two Decembers in the 20 years of the 1990s and 2000s saw the CET above 6*C - compared to most other months in those decades, December was very rarely much above average.  On top of that, between 1988 and 2015, no December saw a CET higher than 6.5*C - so certainly prior to 2015 you have to go back to 1988 to find a December that was significantly mild (6.5*C+). 

It looked up until the Christmas weekend, that there was a decent chance of us this year seeing the second warmest December CET since 1988, and only the second 6.5+ CET December since 1988.  Sadly with the colder nights and frosts of this week - although this December will finish up above average, a significantly mild December (6.5+) now looks out of the window. 

So it still likely remains the case this year, that apart from 2015, December again escapes the significantly mild category.

[The PIT]

3 hours ago, Optimus Prime said:

Well there are a few examples of mild/very mild December's being followed by cold Jan &/or Feb's since the 1950'2#s

53/54

54/55

55/56

77/78

84/85

85/86

86/87

Seem to appear in groups. This combination was rare in the 60's/90's/2000's but these were the decades where all the cold December's were at. Maybe a new trend is about to occur.

 

Well here anything over 6C has only produced two below average months and that's in 1972

[Summer Sun]

6.5 to the 29th

1.8 above the 61 to 90 average

1.8 above the 81 to 10 average

______________________________________

Current high this month is 7.1c on the 16th & 17th

Edited December 31, 2016 by Summer Sun

[damianslaw]

Though it has been a very mild December, and for the vast majority once again devoid of snow, thankfully its has been fairly dry, unlike last December - which is a major relief. Its been quite some time since we had a dry very mild December, normally very mild Decembers are also very wet. It has been a very 'southerly' December, but bookended by cold frosty periods, indeed some quite sharp frosts have been recorded at the start and end of the month, the last 2-3 days have been notably cold in central/southern england, so not without a bit of wintry cold weather, just a shame, the cold came a few days late to salvage what turned out to be a very mild wet windy christmas spell - not great timing.

 

[NorthYorksWeather]

Dropped to 5.8c now here after the 29th, 2.0c above the 1981-2010 average.

Likely to remain around here for the finishing figure, making it the warmest against the mean so far this year.

Thankfully Jan is looking like starting a much colder note!

[NorthYorksWeather]

On 28/12/2016 at 22:04, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

England one, thought that's what CET was

Yes I'm aware this is a CET dedicated thread, but I also think its a suitable place for members such as Mapantz, The PIT and myself to post our own mean monthly temps to compare regionally and also against the CET.

[The PIT]

Yup a very uneventful dry boring December. Normally when it mild its stormy as well but it hasn't been. Very dry as you say.

Anyways we will finish on 6.3C at the moment it's on 6.2C Joint 4th warmest on record plus one of the driest. Actually the temperatures are rising rapidly here so may squeeze 6.4C

[Roger J Smith]

I scanned the data for Decembers that had this cold bookends relative to a mostly mild month. These had first and last five days both running 1.5 or more below the overall monthly average. I have listed them in the order of smallest of the two departures (shown in bold) from the monthly average, in reverse order to see which years were most anomalous in this regard.  Ties are broken by size of the larger of the two departures.

(edit Jan 1) 2016 has finished fourth overall in this list. The mean of the 21 days between the cold bookends was 7.4 C. The mean of the two bookends was 3.0 C. 

Some nice analogue years in the set (1828, 1894, 1962 had some significant cold following on). 

 

YEAR _____ First five days ____ Monthly avg ___ Last five days

 

 

1971 _______ 3.8 __ (--2.8) _____ 6.6 ________ 3.8 (--2.8)

1942 _______ 3.4 __ (--3.3) _____ 6.7 ________ 4.2 (--2.5)

1894 _______ 2.4 __ (--2.7) _____ 5.1 ________ 2.6 (--2.5)

2016 _______ 3.6 __ (--2.4) _____ 6.0 ________ 2.3 (--3.7) 

1869 ______ --0.2 __ (--3.1) _____ 2.9 ________ 0.5 (--2.4)

1861 _______ 2.0 __ (--1.9) ______ 3.9 _______ --0.5 (-4.4)

1903 _______ 1.4 __ (--1.9) ______ 3.3 _______ --0.2 (-3.5)

1962 _______ 0.1 __ (--1.7) ______ 1.8 _______ --2.4 (--4.2)

1867 _______ 1.7 __ (--1.7) ______ 3.4 ________ 0.2 (--3.2)

1793 _______ 3.6 __ (--1.7) ______ 5.3 ________ 2.2 (--3.1)

1839 _______ 1.3 __ (--2.4) ______ 3.7 ________ 2.1 (--1.6)

2008 _______2.0 __ (--1.5) ______ 3.5 ________ 0.3 (-3.2)

1828 _______ 5.9 __ (--1.5) ______ 7.4 ________ 4.7 (-2.7)

Edited January 1, 2017 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

6.4 to the 30th

1.7 above the 61 to 90 average

1.8 above the 81 to 10 average

______________________________________

Current high this month is 7.1c on the 16th & 17th

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

This winter so far has been very sunny. Does anyone know how this December compares to the sunniest Decembers on record? Looking forward I see another week of predominantly sunny weather forecast here in the Midlands too. Is this one of the longest enduring anticyclonic Winter spells ever?

[Chris.R]

 You're joking I feel like it's been cloudy and damp for ever here apart from a few days. Too far NW from the high pressure centre most of the time. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

On ‎12‎/‎30‎/‎2016 at 11:32, damianslaw said:

Though it has been a very mild December, and for the vast majority once again devoid of snow, thankfully its has been fairly dry, unlike last December - which is a major relief. Its been quite some time since we had a dry very mild December, normally very mild Decembers are also very wet. It has been a very 'southerly' December, but bookended by cold frosty periods, indeed some quite sharp frosts have been recorded at the start and end of the month, the last 2-3 days have been notably cold in central/southern england, so not without a bit of wintry cold weather, just a shame, the cold came a few days late to salvage what turned out to be a very mild wet windy christmas spell - not great timing.

 

Many may say that this December has been very mild, but the truth is it will again avoid being a notably mild December.  Apart from the exceptional 9.7 in 2015, the December CET has not exceeded 6.5*C on any other occasion in the last 28 years (since 1988).  This year still does not break the trend of the fact that, apart from 2015, notably mild Decembers have been non-existent for the last 28 years.  The lack of notably mild Decembers since 1988 is a truly exceptional statistic; that December has lacked excessive warmth compared to what most other months of the year have seen on a number of occasions since 1988.  A CET of 6.5 may seem quite mild for December but it is actually nothing exceptional when you consider that 33 Decembers are ahead of this figure in the CET series.

 

We are due another notably mild December; not as mild as the record in 2015, but one somewhere between 6.5*C, and the old record of 8.1*C is overdue.  Even after the record breaker in 2015, statistically another notably mild December with a CET of 6.6 to 8.1 should be just around the corner, and likely within the following five years.  I thought up until last week, that feat could have been likely this year, but now these last few days of the month have blown it out of the window.

[Weather-history]

17 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Many may say that this December has been very mild, but the truth is it will again avoid being a notably mild December.  Apart from the exceptional 9.7 in 2015, the December CET has not exceeded 6.5*C on any other occasion in the last 28 years (since 1988).  This year still does not break the trend of the fact that, apart from 2015, notably mild Decembers have been non-existent for the last 28 years.  The lack of notably mild Decembers since 1988 is a truly exceptional statistic; that December has lacked excessive warmth compared to what most other months of the year have seen on a number of occasions since 1988.  A CET of 6.5 may seem quite mild for December but it is actually nothing exceptional when you consider that 33 Decembers are ahead of this figure in the CET series.

 

We are due another notably mild December; not as mild as the record in 2015, but one somewhere between 6.5*C, and the old record of 8.1*C is overdue.  Even after the record breaker in 2015, statistically another notably mild December with a CET of 6.6 to 8.1 should be just around the corner, and likely within the following five years.  I thought up until last week, that feat could have been likely this year, but now these last few days of the month have blown it out of the window.

Your whole point is damaged to me by December 2015. You even say yourself apart from December 2015. It's impossible to ignore. I could argue that we were long overdue a very mild December and then came 2015 and the elastic band well and truely snapped. 

If you want to look at  a truely exceptional December statistic then look at the fact  that there has never been a December with a CET of 5.9

[Summer Sun]

December confirmed as 6.0c

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

December confirmed as 6.0c

Lol and we miss out on a 5.9C again!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

0.3C out - not too bad by my standards!

[mulzy]

Just 2.0C out!

I bought into the cold December hype sadly!