December 2016 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2016-17 competition year

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 6.4C will be a rise today as double figures expected later and the same for tomorrow.

[NorthYorksWeather]

6.1c to the 23rd, 2.3c above the 1981-2010 average.

Estimating it to rise to 6.4c by boxing day, before dropping towards the New Year.

Looking at latest 10 day forecast by the BBC for my village I will take a guess at 5.7 or 5.8c for months end which will be about 2c above average.

December will be almost certainly the biggest deviation from the mean this year, unfortunately on the mild side

[Roger J Smith]

10.4 the record for 25th (1824, 1983 tied) and that could fall especially in the final numbers when they adjust to calendar day, whatever the provisional number I would look for this to fall (11.5 is possible). 

So it would appear that the finish will be not far from 6.7 and that will be the second or third most anomalous outcomes a year after a record high CET month (in terms of ranking). See my previous post for some details about that. 

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

1 hour ago, Roger J Smith said:

10.4 the record for 25th (1824, 1983 tied) and that could fall especially in the final numbers when they adjust to calendar day, whatever the provisional number I would look for this to fall (11.5 is possible). 

So it would appear that the finish will be not far from 6.7 and that will be the second or third most anomalous outcomes a year after a record high CET month (in terms of ranking). See my previous post for some details about that. 

 

 

Hi RJS. Do the adjustment change things to a calendar day?
Taking how things are normally calculated, I doubt the mean tomorrow will be so high. Keeping in mind the the minimum for the 25th is taken from 9am today to 9am tomorrow, I suspect the min will be close to 6C, while maxima don't look like climbing above 13C, so a mean somewhere in the low 9s for tomorrow is likely imo. Very mild, but not really a threat to the record.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.5C unlikely to change tomorrow but then a slow drop so final figure I guess around 6.1 to 6.3C

[The PIT]

11 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Hi RJS. Do the adjustment change things to a calendar day?
Taking how things are normally calculated, I doubt the mean tomorrow will be so high. Keeping in mind the the minimum for the 25th is taken from 9am today to 9am tomorrow, I suspect the min will be close to 6C, while maxima don't look like climbing above 13C, so a mean somewhere in the low 9s for tomorrow is likely imo. Very mild, but not really a threat to the record.

Yup that's what I thought unless the cooler air gets delayed by several hours.

[Summer Sun]

6.8 to the 24th

2.0 above the 61 to 90 average

2.0 above the 81 to 10 average

______________________________________

Current high this month is 7.1c on the 16th & 17th

[BornFromTheVoid]

Min today is 7.1C, if maxima also end up higher than forecast, then RJS could well be right and the record may be under threat!

[Roger J Smith]

I think they do adjust the provisional numbers to the calendar day (midnight to midnight) which is the cause of some of the changes we see in the adjustments, the other cause being consideration of added data not available for the preliminary. So we can check this out in the final numbers vs the provisional numbers they post. 

[The PIT]

Pretty sure they don't do midnight to midnight it's nine til nine.

At the moment the weak front is over northern  England.

Edited December 25, 2016 by The PIT

[NorthYorksWeather]

As a weather enthusiast who records data on daily basis, if the CET is based on 9 till 9, should I follow suit to ensure my data is recording to the same regulations as the CET?

What does everyone else do?

Cheers

 

Edited December 25, 2016 by vizzy2004

[The PIT]

yup but as ever if you're working you can't do this so have to make a note accordingly.

[NorthYorksWeather]

8 minutes ago, The PIT said:

yup but as ever if you're working you can't do this so have to make a note accordingly.

I'm sure there was an option on Cumulus to do this, il have to check? If not il probably just leave it.

[The PIT]

2 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

I'm sure there was an option on Cumulus to do this, il have to check? If not il probably just leave it.

Nope however you can download the records and do it from there.

[Mapantz]

17 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

I'm sure there was an option on Cumulus to do this, il have to check? If not il probably just leave it.

Don't change it until the beginning of the new year, it will mess up all of your data. I took this advice myself, as I wanted to change mine. I'm going to do the same. The reason I am going to change mine is that high minimums during the Summer get skewed if the temp drops below the recorded figure sometime before midnight. I missed out on several records due to that happening.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.6C should drop away from now on.

[Summer Sun]

7.0 to the 25th

2.2 above the 61 to 90 average

2.2 above the 81 to 10 average

______________________________________

Current high this month is 7.1c on the 16th & 17th

[NorthYorksWeather]

6.3c to the 25th, 2.5c above 1981-2010 average.

The drop starts tomorrow with Wednesday and Thursday looking like possible sub zero mean temps.

[Matthew.]

Quite a drop in Cumulative CET from 26-30th. Maybe 7 to 6.3. So a finish just above 6 looks likely. Above average. 2.5c out myself

[Chris.R]

7.4°C here to the 25th. 2.4°C above the 1981-2010 average;  probably thanks to a rather mild start when the CET zone had those cold nights. 

[Summer Sun]

6.9 to the 26th

2.2 above the 61 to 90 average

2.2 above the 81 to 10 average

______________________________________

Current high this month is 7.1c on the 16th & 17th

[Summer Sun]

6.8 to the 27th

2.1 above the 61 to 90 average

2.1 above the 81 to 10 average

______________________________________

Current high this month is 7.1c on the 16th & 17th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.4C one more drop likely than Saturday with double figures again will bump it back to 6.4C

[NorthYorksWeather]

6.2c to the 27th, 2.4c above the 1981-2010 average.

Today's mean will be -1.1c so quite a drop expected tomorrow.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

6.2c to the 27th, 2.4c above the 1981-2010 average.

Today's mean will be -1.1c so quite a drop expected tomorrow.

 

6.2° likely finishing on, rise expected towards the end