December 2016 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2016-17 competition year

[snowray]

Hooooraaaaayyyyyy, a drop at last, Merry Christmas everyone!!!!

[Roger J Smith]

The 30-year average for 1987-2016 would be 5.0 C if this year finishes on 5.5 to as high as 8.6 ... from 5.4 down as far as it could possibly go (5.0 seems to be about it now) the average would be 4.9 C. 

Looking at the output, I would say the forbidden 5.9 is in play, maybe this year. If the average from today to 31st were to be 5.5 and there was a 0.2 downward adjustment the outcome would be 6.1 C. 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.7C and at the moment one of the driest Decembers on record.

[NorthYorksWeather]

6.5c here, 2.7c above the 1981-2010 average.

After a low of 0c and a high of 4c today it will drop a bit tomorrow and possibly down to 5c by the weekend.

5.5c at months end would see the year bang on average.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 3.9C while maxima got close to 7C, so remaining on 6.9C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

6.8C to the 20th (5.1: +1.4)
6.7C to the 21st (5.9: +1.7)
6.7C to the 22nd (6.1: +1.6)
6.7C to the 23rd (6.0: +1.3)
6.7C to the 24th (6.6: +1.9)
6.7C to the 25th (8.0: +3.5)
6.6C to the 26th (4.9: +0.6)
6.7C to the 27th (7.4: +3.5)
6.7C to the 28th (8.5: +4.4)

The next 10 days look like averaging in the low to mid 6s, or about 2C above the 81-10 average. Quite mild, but not exceptionally so.

Taking the values so far and the forecast values for the next 5 days, the likely upper and lower range based on previous years is 6.7C to 4.9C, with the forecast beyond 5 days very much following the upper line. The absolute upper and lower values being 7.4C (if we followed 2015) and 3.9C (if we followed 1798 or 1870). Even following 2010 from the 24th onward would leave us at just 5.0C.

[Summer Sun]

6.9 to the 19th

2.1 above the 61 to 90 average

2.0 above the 81 to 10 average

______________________________________

Current high this month is 7.1c on the 16th & 17th

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

I just realised I accidentally posted my prediction for the December CET to the wrong thread!

But that's okay. I predicted 1.3C so zero I'd got points and a lot of embarrasment anyway. So I'm glad I avoided that. Phew.

 

[Roger J Smith]

In my case, all of the above except for 1.7 and the right thread. 

January 2017 thread is open for your predictions. 

Edited December 20, 2016 by Roger J Smith

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

6.9 to the 19th

2.1 above the 61 to 90 average

2.0 above the 81 to 10 average

______________________________________

Current high this month is 7.1c on the 16th & 17th

hopefully get the 91-'20 averages in 3 years! sure it will be higher

[Roger J Smith]

If this month ended at 6.5, the 1991 to 2016 average would be 4.9 C. 

Meanwhile, I looked at the outcomes of months that followed record high CET months by one year. These twelve outcomes (from data previous to Dec 2015) are as follows:

JAN 1917 __ 1.6 (tied 70th coldest, tied 285th warmest)

FEB 1780 __ 2.1 (tied 64th coldest, tied 292nd warmest)

MAR 1958 __ 3.7 (tied 52nd coldest, tied 303rd warmest)

APR 2012 __ 7.2 (tied 95th coldest, tied 256th warmest)

MAY 1834 _ 13.0 (tied 21st warmest)

JUN 1847 _ 13.9 (tied with 19 others as 109th coldest, 231st warmest)

JUL 2007 _ 15.2 (tied with 17 others as 84th coldest, 258th warmest)

AUG 1996 _ 16.5 (tied 73rd warmest)

SEP 2007 _ 13.8 (tied 151st warmest)

OCT 2002 _ 10.1 (tied 137th warmest)

NOV 1995 __ 7.7 (tied 45th warmest)

DEC 1935,75 __ 2.8, 5.3 (1935 was tied 77th coldest, 1975 was tied 83rd warmest)

Quite a few of those are below normal even for colder contemporary normals, and until this December only May 1834 could be called much above normal.

 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2016 by Roger J Smith

[Summer Sun]

6.8 to the 20th

2.0 above the 61 to 90 average

2.0 above the 81 to 10 average

______________________________________

Current high this month is 7.1c on the 16th & 17th

[Summer Sun]

6.8 to the 21st

2.0 above the 61 to 90 average

2.0 above the 81 to 10 average

______________________________________

Current high this month is 7.1c on the 16th & 17th

[NorthYorksWeather]

6.1c to the 21st, 2.3c above the 1981-2010 average.

Another drop likely after today but then we could see potential rises again by the weekend.

[snowray]

I think we might end up staying just under the dreaded 7c til months end if we get a couple of frosty nights and maybe a foggy day or two.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield now at 6.4C miles above average but falling down the ranks of the warmest Decembers.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Sunny Sheffield now at 6.4C miles above average but falling down the ranks of the warmest Decembers.

Well, PIT, I'm glad I raised my initial guess from 3.9 to 4.4C...And fat lot of good it did me!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, PIT, I'm glad I raised my initial guess from 3.9 to 4.4C...And fat lot of good it did me!

5.9° mine!

[The PIT]

I went for 5C miles out and that was despite most of the forecasts predicting a cool December.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 minutes ago, The PIT said:

I went for 5C miles out and that was despite most of the forecasts predicting a cool December.

mine's miles out too! did it on instincts, and predicted westerly month, warmer than I thought

[Optimus Prime]

I bet December ranks much more highly in Scotland in the warm ranks. Warmer than last year??

December was once a month you'd place your bets on for being below average. We need to start an investigation to what happened to our beloved festive month. Dickinson festive spirit no more? Dec 1995/1996/2000/2001/2002/2005/2008/09/10 how we miss the likes.

Edited December 22, 2016 by Optimus Prime

[BornFromTheVoid]

Min today of 1.3C, while maxima were around 8C, so a drop to 4.7C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

6.7C to the 23rd (6.8: +2.1)
6.8C to the 24th (8.2: +3.5)
6.8C to the 25th (8.8: +4.3)
6.8C to the 26th (4.7: +0.4)
6.6C to the 27th (2.5: -1.4)
6.5C to the 28th (3.5: -0.6)
6.4C to the 29th (4.3: +0.4)
6.3C to the 30th (4.3: +0.1)
6.4C to the 31st (7.0: +2.6)

A few chilly days after Christmas, but remaining a little milder than average overall
The likely upper and lower values are now about 6.9C and 5.5C respectively. A very mild month likely, but not exceptional. A reasonable chance of creeping into the warmest 10% (needs 6.3C or higher after corrections)

[The PIT]

Don't think it'll drop to 4.7C we would need -20C or something like that. I think you meant 6.7C

[Summer Sun]

6.7 to the 22nd

1.9 above the 61 to 90 average

1.9 above the 81 to 10 average

______________________________________

Current high this month is 7.1c on the 16th & 17th

[Summer Sun]

6.8 to the 23rd

1.9 above the 61 to 90 average

2.0 above the 81 to 10 average

______________________________________

Current high this month is 7.1c on the 16th & 17th

[BornFromTheVoid]

Recent runs have trended a little milder, with a finish of 6.7C on the 06z GFS.

With regard to the big day, latest run has a CET of around 9.1C, ranking it as the 7th mildest Christmas day on record.

With the 10 year average (shown in purple) the coldest period was 1791-1800, averaging just 0.4C, while the mildest was 1982-1991, averaging 6.7C.