December 2016 C.E.T. forecasts -- start of 2016-17 competition year

[snowray]

2.1c please

[Singularity]

Let's start the ball rolling with a cautiously optimistic play; 2.5*C please.

Edit: Sorry I put a degree to low, meant to put 3.5*C... are you buying it? 

Edited December 7, 2016 by Singularity

[DR(S)NO]

Ach, alright, so my earlier guess  could be a tad optimistic.... Can I revert to 3.5c please......if only in the vain hope that I might tempt fate...

[stewfox]

On 28/11/2016 at 23:49, stewfox said:

2.6c

 

Want to put this up to 4.1c no front loaded winter.

[crucible72]

3.5 please

[DAVID SNOW]

Revised prediction.

3.4 ta.

[davehsug]

5.3C please.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

4.4 C please.

Cloudy and high pressure dominated.

[Roger J Smith]

I like a bit of elbow room, so 1.7 for me. 

Location of the table of entries, see previous post for untaken values but scratch 1.7, and 2.1 now. 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=7

(updated as of 0300h Thursday 1st) _ 88 on-time entries and median 3.9 C. 

Edited December 1, 2016 by Roger J Smith

[Nouska]

3.6C for me, please.

[J10]

4.2c

just before the deadline!!

 

Edited November 30, 2016 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

1981-2010 CET normals and daily records (1772 to 2015)

 

DATE ___ CET __ CET cum _____ MAX _______ MIN

01 _____ 5.8 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.1 (1775) ___ --3.0 (1947)

02 _____ 5.8 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.2 (1985) ___ --4.7 (1796)

03 _____ 6.0 ___ 5.9 ______ 12.2 (1985) ___ --4.0 (1879)

04 _____ 6.1 ___ 5.9 ______ 12.1 (1888) ___ --3.8 (1879,1925)

05 _____ 6.1 ___ 6.0 ______ 12.6 (1898) ___ --3.7 (1844)

06 _____ 5.0 ___ 5.8 ______ 12.3 (1898) ___ --5.5 (1844)

07 _____ 4.8 ___ 5.7 ______ 12.3 (1856) ___ --5.7 (1879)

08 _____ 4.4 ___ 5.5 ______ 12.1 (1856) ___ --5.4 (1807)

09 _____ 4.5 ___ 5.4 ______ 11.8 (1934) ___ --4.0 (1803)

10 _____ 4.3 ___ 5.3 ______ 10.9 (1997) ___ --4.5 (1784)

11 _____ 4.2 ___ 5.2 ______ 12.6 (1994) ___ --6.7 (1784)

12 _____ 4.2 ___ 5.1 ______ 12.9 (1994) ___ --8.5 (1981)

13 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.1 ______ 11.6 (1918) ___ --6.5 (1981)

14 _____ 4.4 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.8 (1912) ___ --5.3 (1878)

15 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.2 (1985) ___ --5.4 (1788)

16 _____ 4.6 ___ 5.0 ______ 11.4 (2015) ___ --6.6 (1859) ___ (was 10.8 -- 1842)

17 _____ 4.4 ___ 4.9 ______ 12.5 (2015) ___ --7.7 (1859) ___ (was 11.6 -- 1904)

18 _____ 4.4 ___ 4.9 ______ 12.5 (2015) ___ --7.1 (1859) ___ (was 11.8 -- 2014)

19 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.9 ______ 13.1 (2015) ___ --6.8 (2010) ___ (was 11.6 -- 1993)

20 _____ 3.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.1 (1833) ___ --7.0 (2010)

21 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.4 (1971) ___ --5.9 (2010)

22 _____ 4.5 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.6 (1991) ___ --6.8 (1890)

23 _____ 4.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 11.8 (1991) ___ --6.4 (1870)

24 _____ 4.7 ___ 4.8 ______ 10.7 (1843) ___ --6.9 (1870)

25 _____ 4.5 ___ 4.8 ___ 10.4 (1824,1983) _ --10.8 (1796)

26 _____ 4.3 ___ 4.7 ______ 11.0 (2011) ___ --5.4 (1798)

27 _____ 3.9 ___ 4.7 ______ 10.9 (2015) ___ --8.4 (1798) ___ (was 10.6 -- 1987)

28 _____ 4.1 ___ 4.7 ______ 11.5 (1987) ___ --8.2 (1798)

29 _____ 3.9 ___ 4.7 ______ 12.0 (1987) ___ --4.9 (1874)

30 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.0 (1834) ___ --6.1 (1870)

31 _____ 4.2 ___ 4.6 ______ 11.1 (1859) ___ --7.1 (1783)

________________________________________________________________

The three largest drops in CET from one December to the next ...

 

7.0 (from 7.4 in 1843 to 0.4 in 1844)

6.9 (from 6.6 in 1795 to --0.3 in 1796)

6.4 (from 7.7 1852 to 1.3 1853) 

__________________________________________________________________

The eight largest rises (five and ties for 5th) in Dec CET from average of 1st to 5th ...

4.2 (1st to 5th avg 0.9 == to month end 5.1 Dec 1947)

4.1 (1st to 5th avg 0.1 == to month end 4.2 Dec 1875)

4.0 (1st to 5th avg 0.4 == to month end 4.4 Dec 1856)

3.9 (1st to 5th avg --3.2 == to month end 0.7 Dec 1879)

3.7 (1st to 5th avg 2.8 == to month end 6.5 Dec 1921)

3.7 (1st to 5th avg --0.9 == to month end 2.8 Dec 1925)

3.7 (1st to 5th avg 2.4 to month end 6.1 Dec 1977)

3.7 (1st to 5th avg 2.1 to month end 5.8 Dec 1997)

The first table indicates that the average change is a fall of 1.4 deg in recent years; this is similar to all data in that regard. The largest fall from 1st to 5th, to end of month CET, was 5.6 from the 10.1 average of 1st to 5th (including daily record of 12.1 on 1st) in 1775 to the end of month 4.5 C. The second biggest fall was 5.4 in 1812 from 7.1 to 1.7 C. In third place we find 1981 which was 5.4 to the 5th and ended 0.3 C. Last year "fell" from 9.9 to 9.7

 

Edited December 1, 2016 by Roger J Smith

[Gustywind]

What a bonkers month Dec 2015 was, a CET of 13.1 on the 19th LOL!! I'm surprised it didn't have even more of the daily records for the month than just 5 days.

[Duncan McAlister]

5.7 for me please.

[Norrance]

3.6C for me please.

[storming15]

4.6 please

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Is it too late for me to request a small amendment to 5.4C, please?

[Froze were the Days]

5.9c for me please!

[Roger J Smith]

2 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Is it too late for me to request a small amendment to 5.4C, please?

Not too late, confirm after reading this (I think others might like to know how this actually works) ...

A late revised entry would be subject to 10 point deductions per day late. That is ten out of five hundred to put it in some perspective. To gain in the standings, you would need to improve your ranking for the month by about 2-3 ranks to get the position points needed to overcome that. This is based on several cases last year and not a rigorous formula. If your change cannot result in that big a gain, there would be no point in doing it unless you want to have a lower average error. For every 0.6 that you change, your average error could be improved by 0.2 for a season and 0.05 for the year. That can have an effect on points each month.

For the size of the change you are proposing, and given the fact that you don't move past anybody (as last entrant for 5.4)  I don't think you can gain or lose anything significant whatever the outcome but if you confirm you want to change I will move your position in the table of forecasts and mark it one day late. 

________________________________________________

Also, general note, I have added the four late entries above to the table, now 92 entries and still 3.9 for the median of those. 

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Roger J Smith said:

Not too late, confirm after reading this (I think others might like to know how this actually works) ...

A late revised entry would be subject to 10 point deductions per day late. That is ten out of five hundred to put it in some perspective. To gain in the standings, you would need to improve your ranking for the month by about 2-3 ranks to get the position points needed to overcome that. This is based on several cases last year and not a rigorous formula. If your change cannot result in that big a gain, there would be no point in doing it unless you want to have a lower average error. For every 0.6 that you change, your average error could be improved by 0.2 for a season and 0.05 for the year. That can have an effect on points each month.

For the size of the change you are proposing, and given the fact that you don't move past anybody (as last entrant for 5.4)  I don't think you can gain or lose anything significant whatever the outcome but if you confirm you want to change I will move your position in the table of forecasts and mark it one day late. 

________________________________________________

Also, general note, I have added the four late entries above to the table, now 92 entries and still 3.9 for the median of those. 

 

I'll stay with 5.7C, then, please.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

19 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I'll stay with 5.7C, then, please.

I'm sticking with the 'bogey' figure 5.9°, as first 5 days look chilly, so may not be too high when the Atlantic dominates

[AWD]

6.0c please

[Corrigan87]

22 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

how do you know for definite? first 5 days cold yes, but who knows when the Atlantic breaks through on 6th, could dominate rest of month, who knows

Well I dont know! But surely its extremely unlikely to be as bad as last year. MetO have stuck their neck out that we'll get cold so fingers crossed

[Relativistic]

12 hours ago, Gustywind said:

What a bonkers month Dec 2015 was, a CET of 13.1 on the 19th LOL!! I'm surprised it didn't have even more of the daily records for the month than just 5 days.

As bonkers as December 2015 was, in terms of standard deviations from the series mean, May 1833 (15.1C), and October 1740 (5.3C) beat it. Taking the means and standard deviations for May, October, and December for the entire series, excluding the "bonkers" months (as anomalous) in each case, gives

May: Mean = 11.21C, SD = 1.13

October: 9.73C, 1.30C

December: 4.08C, 1.73C

May 1833 is thus 3.45 SDs from the mean, October 1740 is 3.33 SDs from the mean, and December 2015 is 3.25 SDs from the mean.

Having said that, May 1833 holds only two date records (15th at 20.0C, 17th at 19.7C). Unfortunately, no data exist for October 1740.

 

Edit: I totally missed the Junes of 1676 (18.0C) and 1846 (18.2C), which can also claim to beat December 2015 in this regard, at 3.51 and 3.72 SDs above the mean respectively (here, both months were excluded when calculating the SD). April 2011 (11.8C) also comes close, at 3.22 SDs away, as does January 1795 (-3.1C), at 3.24 SDs away. There may well be more but these seem like the obvious candidates to me.

Edited December 1, 2016 by Relativistic

[ThundersnowDays]

3.3 please