Atlantic storms winter 2016/2017

[The PIT]

Yup brief windy spell across central areas of England. Doubtful it will get named as it's hitting a narrow area across Northern Wales North Midlands and Yorkshire therefore will be deemed to have low impact. It could shift as well or not be as strong. 

[Matty M]

Really bewildered at lack of interest here! Doris will be named in AM and likely most disruptive of winter season.

[Matty M]

EC 12z especially ominous showing rapid cyclogenesis with centre dropping over 30hPa in 24 hours....

 

[The PIT]

Still there this morning local forecast has upped the gusts to 58 mph. No naming as of yet and if doesn't makes naming of storms inconsistent. No warnings either yet.

[Frosty hollows]

Even this far inland gusts predicted up to 50 mph. Looks like a very brief spell of very windy weather, but nonetheless could have impacts even on a limited area

[Jo Farrow]

From Front page update today

"Strong winds

Tuesday night looks windy with severe gales thanks to a low pressure near to northern Scotland. Another area of low pressure could bring strong winds and gales across England and Wales early on Thursday, right through rush hour. Gusts of 60-70mph are possible, depending on the exact track and development of this low. One to watch for this week, along with…

Snow

The low, which will bring strong winds early on Thursday, could bring significant snowfall to northern Britain. As the low with its wind, clouds and rain moves up against the colder air to the north, this could turn to snow. Lying snow inland with drifting snow for higher level routes is possible.*

Midweek Storm?

Wednesday starts off windy with gusty conditions for NE England and Scotland. There may be disruption to the ferry service to the Northern Isles. The winds ease down and the day is mild but cloudy in the south, brighter but colder in the north. A band of rain sets in from the west later Wednesday, spilling over Northern Ireland, Wales pushing over more of Britain. This runs ahead of the developing low pressure which is causing some concerns for Thursday morning, looking at the strength of the winds and possible snowfall.

* Again, how the low develops and where its path takes it across the UK will define the areas at risk from snowfall, which could be slightly north or south of the graphic below, or not deep enough over the UK for concerns. It may rapidly deepen over the North Sea and hit mainland Europe instead. We will await the next model runs.

This low pressure does have the potential to cause disruption on Thursday morning, so we will await the UK Met Office to see how the warnings develop, a yellow for snow and winds likely to be issued this morning (21st) and then if the low really does show signs of rapidly developing over the UK, it could lead to an Amber warning for impacts from severe weather and possibly the naming of long awaited Storm Doris. The naming will depend on how the forecast develops and the extent of the impacts, not the whim of a newpaper pundit. "

 

[weirpig]

I think this storm is slipping under the radar somewhat   Gfs has winds hitting 50mph quite widely  however other models  Arpege  for instance has then quiet a bit higher

[knocker]

It's quite tricky as Jo pointed out with the track and how much it deepens vital. Currently the METO has it a bit deeper than the GFS.

[weirpig]

Met just issued warnings   70 to 80mph  winds  across middle of the Country 

[Matty M]

Hello Doris!

Certainly sting jet potential in this one but still lots of uncertainty as when it begins explosively developing will greatly determine its track. Looks nasty for NW England

[Beverley Lass]

Yellow and Amber weather warnings for Thursday.

 

[weirpig]

Just now, Beverley Lass said:

Yellow and Amber weather warnings for Thursday.

 

Yes could be a nasty little feature.  I dont think ive seen many amber warnings for wind in these parts  could certainly cause a few problems 

[The PIT]

Although nothing like Doris the next four days do show windy spells Tuesday is one as is Wednesday where parts of the country could experience gusts up 60 mph briefly at some point during the day.

[Mapantz]

2 hours ago, The PIT said:

Although nothing like Doris the next four days do show windy spells Tuesday is one as is Wednesday where parts of the country could experience gusts up 60 mph briefly at some point during the day.

Could do with a drop of rain here, not seen any for nearly 8 days straight.

Although January saw above average rainfall, things are starting to dry up rapidly.

Edited February 24, 2017 by Mapantz

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 hours ago, The PIT said:

Although nothing like Doris the next four days do show windy spells Tuesday is one as is Wednesday where parts of the country could experience gusts up 60 mph briefly at some point during the day.

Seems to be a few ensemble members now strengthening that little low down from the NW on Tuesday. After Doris, any weakened structures will now be more susceptible to even 60 mph winds I would have thought.

Edited February 25, 2017 by CreweCold