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Atlantic storms winter 2016/2017

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Not sure if we have a thread open yet for storms as we haven't really had one yet.. 

Here is my post this Morning on the first to effect Southern England 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86593-se-england-and-ea-regional-weather-discussion/?do=findComment&comment=3477618

 

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Is this thread about #StormAngus then?

Moved to 

 

Edited by Jo Farrow
moved text to new thread

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What thoughts about the second storm waiting in the wings - is it likely to be the second named storm? 

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Both the GFS and ECM picking up some action next week, Thursday has potential to be a stinker but nothing certain yet:

IMG_1532.PNGIMG_1533.PNGIMG_1534.GIFIMG_1535.GIF

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Too far away and I expect it to disappear pn the enxt run but keeping fingers crossed for action if we can't get cold.

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23 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Too far away and I expect it to disappear pn the enxt run but keeping fingers crossed for action if we can't get cold.

Both GFS and the ECM are keen on something stormy next week, I'd be surprised if it doesn't happen now.

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.. just having a peep at the 12Z pressure ensembles for Aberdeenshire.. the OP not quite an outlier, but rather on the extreme side of things. There's certainly support for something a bit 'blowy' - how blowy is always up for debate.

As we all like to say.. more runs needed dash1.gif

viewimage.png

Edited by Mapantz

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Thursdays dont seem so bad here at the moment, Tuesday worth keeping an eye on for us in the Western Isles but again dont look like it will come to much?

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Chance of big storm around Christmas with some cold air embedded should see some snow for hillier areas in the North and West. 

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I'm just hoping rainfall totals are not like last boxing day here in the Calder Valley?

As it is I'm not paying it much mind until it has repeated up to 3 days out and then I might get twitchy!

I still think the models are tending toward what they would expect to see and then building on that? Some change is in the pipe line I'm sure but will it be so extreme?

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Stormy weather gradually disappearing in deep FI. Looking the dreary uneventful weather is likely to continue.

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1 hour ago, The PIT said:

Stormy weather gradually disappearing in deep FI. Looking the dreary uneventful weather is likely to continue.

Phew! 

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2 hours ago, cheese said:

Oh no! Please send it somewhere else.

By the look of those charts nowhere south of Scotland with have anything more than a breezy day so not much to be concerned about at the moment

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Downgrades for stormy weather and colder weather continue as they head towards the more reliable time frame.

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I am becoming a little more hopeful that the high pressure will keep us safe over the Christmas period? I'd 'hopecasted' at the start of autumn that lowering solar would tend to favour blocking and that our now regular Atlantic Train would take a diversion!

That didn't turn out too well for southern Spain nor is it for Iceland/Svalbard that look to be copping for the storms that could have just rolled over us with their extreme rainfall cargo's?

By next winter our flood risks will be even lower as the bridge that acts like a dam across the Calder here in Mytholmroyd is relocated ensuring a swifter exit for any extreme flooding events. With downstream 'flood zones' to take up , and hold the water, the risk will not just pass on down stream.

Somehow late winter/spring has not yet caused issues in the post 07' period? Long may that continue too!!!

Looking at the charts those storms , whilst out in the Atlantic , are massive and with really low central pressures. Anyone know if we are likely to see any records broken? ( wave heights/wind speeds etc?)

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Hoping so GW. I bet many families have not fully recovered from the dreadful Christmas period of 2015.

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Some folk are still not in their homes yet! The Sirens the other Monday were awful and the folks who came out to check the river were like a funeral crowd. There are plenty on here who only know flooding from the images ..... it does not convey the reality of living through it and then the aftermath. Even walking the dogs was bad for a couple of months due to the contaminated slush covering everything ( petrol station tanks flooded, sewage farm flooded etc) and the fear in folk each time we saw heavy rains.

How folk can live in tornado alley escapes me!!!

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39 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Some folk are still not in their homes yet! The Sirens the other Monday were awful and the folks who came out to check the river were like a funeral crowd. There are plenty on here who only know flooding from the images ..... it does not convey the reality of living through it and then the aftermath. Even walking the dogs was bad for a couple of months due to the contaminated slush covering everything ( petrol station tanks flooded, sewage farm flooded etc) and the fear in folk each time we saw heavy rains.

How folk can live in tornado alley escapes me!!!

Agree, GW. It was horrific in the Aire Valley last Christmas...let's hope this year is much much better :)

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Looks like anything stormy will be confined to the north west although breezy elsewhere. AS ever as it creeps to reliable time frame downgrades take place as they have done for the cool snap as well.

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4 hours ago, The PIT said:

Looks like anything stormy will be confined to the north west although breezy elsewhere. AS ever as it creeps to reliable time frame downgrades take place as they have done for the cool snap as well.

Not sure about that ECM has very strong winds across the UK

ECM1-192.GIF?17-0

60 to 70mph quite widely and over 100mph for Ireland

ECU4-192.GIF?17-0

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39 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Not sure about that ECM has very strong winds across the UK

ECM1-192.GIF?17-0

60 to 70mph quite widely and over 100mph for Ireland

ECU4-192.GIF?17-0

That version had better disappear. 

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