Possible Snow Event 8th/9th November

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Well here we are at the beginning of November and there's the chance for the first snowfall of the season! 

The high ground of Scotland and Northern England look to bear the brunt of the snowfall, with the chance of some accumulations to lower levels (maybe staying above 100m) especially in Scotland, but also into the Midlands Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Of course this is biased speculation, and also there's still plenty of time to go in terms of nailing snow forecasts, but as an avid coldie looking for more snow than he can handle this is looking pretty decent for my area tomorrow, considering it's still Autumn!!

Whether this thread gets used or everyone stays chatting in their respective regional threads, I felt this very early taste of Winter deserved a proper mention.   

  

 

 

 

Netweather charts: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Met Office Warnings: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1478563200&regionName=st

BBC Forecast Animation: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

BRING ON THE SNOW!!!! 

[Bradowl]

Going to be very marginal in low lying areas but if we do see some settling Snow this would be earlist in winter I've seen it since late 1980s when we had a few cms on 1st November. 

I remember us having a good snowfall on 2 occasions mid November in early 90s, I think it was about 17th for first one then again a few days later. 

[Guest]

well im looking forward to tomorrow night... might not get anything but the chase is on and i hope this is the first of many over the next 5 months... bring on the snow!!!

[damianslaw]

As often the case when we have cold air aloft a slow moving front from the atlantic, the likelihood of snow will depend on the intensity of precipitation and dewpoints. The heavier the precipitation the greater effect evaporative cooling will take hold and as ever it will be a case of nowcasting.

We do tend to do well from such synoptics, cold surface air drawn in from the SE, and evaporative cooling aided by the uplift caused by the central feels, which helps to chill the air significantly ahead of the front. 

[Summer Sun]

You can see the beebs thought's in the link below

 

[Polar Maritime]

We could see significant accumulations over the Peak District tonight.

 

[WillinGlossop]

Hope so..... over in altrincham later this morning....will prob feel raw.... back home by mid afternoon then hopefully will see first proper flakes of winter overnight.... -4c atm..... brrrrr....

[Turnedoutniceagain]

BBC radio report snow possible as far South as Leicester today/tonight

[Summer Sun]

Central areas look best placed for snow eastern areas look like seeing mostly rain

This morning's forecast

After the 10pm BBC one news last night

 

[Ravelin]

Not holding out much hope this far East. Anyway, it was -1C when I left the house to drive to work this morning and just out of the village I went through a shower of rain. Obviously just a surface pool of cold air and warmer higher up.

[WillinGlossop]

Latest gfs looks a little heavier precipitation.... between 11-25mm over parts of pennines....

-1c still....when will met office update warning? 

Edited November 8, 2016 by WillinGlossop

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Latest gfs looks a little heavier precipitation.... between 11-25mm over parts of pennines....

-1c still....when will met office update warning? 

 

Most likely this morning but it literally be any time

[WillinGlossop]

Just updated still bit uncertain but seems to have spread warning area out more

[weirpig]

10 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Just updated still bit uncertain but seems to have spread warning area out more

Yep more south and west  brings West midlands into the snow area. 

[Thunder Snow]

light snow flurries in Carlisle 

[Summer Sun]

Issued at: 09:46 on Tue 8 Nov 2016

Valid from: 15:00 on Tue 8 Nov 2016

Valid to: 10:00 on Wed 9 Nov 2016

Rain will turn to snow in places later on Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. This could bring accumulations of 4 to 8 cm across some hilly areas of northern England and Scotland, largely above 200-300 m, with as much as 15 cm possible above 300-400 m. Overnight Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning, as snow peters out over Scotland, Pennine areas are expected to receive a covering of snow, largely on vegetated surfaces above 200-300 m. However, there is also the potential for 5-10 cm of snow to settle to low levels over parts of Yorkshire and down into the northeast Midlands, though with a good deal of uncertainty about this. Please be aware of the potential for difficult driving conditions in some areas.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A band of rain spreading slowly in will turn to snow as it encounters cold air. Whilst this will be mainly on high ground, and heavier bursts could easily bring snow down to low levels. Overnight into Wednesday morning, there are concerns that heavier bursts could bring snow more widely down to low levels over parts of the Midlands and northern England, though at this stage there is still low confidence.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1478563200&regionName=uk

[Man With Beard]

Am I allowed to be IMBY in this thread? I'm a bit disappointed we aren't 5 weeks further on in the year, because the whole nation would have been getting buried tonight:

 

[pegg24]

35 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Am I allowed to be IMBY in this thread? I'm a bit disappointed we aren't 5 weeks further on in the year, because the whole nation would have been getting buried tonight:

 

That's always the way isn't it. bet we get the cold in during December  and will then it's dry lol

[white crimbo]

Patience my dear Watson, patience 

Edited November 8, 2016 by white crimbo

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Moderate/heavy snow falling at the moment, has been for about half an hour. Starting to settle on the grass and roofs currently. 

[The PIT]

Front pretty weak further south so unlikely if it stays the same to provide the cooling needed for Snow away from the highest peaks further south.

Quote

 

 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

A few centimeters on the ground now, roads beginning to become a problem even though the gritter has been round a few times. Temperature hovering around 1C 

Edited November 8, 2016 by Ross Andrew Hemphill

[Polar Maritime]

Sleet atm here.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Netweather says its 0.4C so I'll go with that 

[damianslaw]

Light wet sleety snow here, just starting to settle on car roofs etc, heavier precipitation should bring more consistent snow, so yes a surprise cover could be on the cards in the next few hours.