Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Rather grey and miserable today and looks like it will remain so.

I think I'll just do a bog standard walk today and save one with nice views for when I can see further than a 100m.

I'm steadfastly not paying much attention to the models. Just a little sneaky peak here and there when I think they're not looking. 

Edited February 5, 2017 by scottish skier

[blitzen]

Perhaps those early risers in the MT may temper their knee jerk reactions a little bit more now that the next run is showing improvements?

06z already showing this now:-

 

Edited February 5, 2017 by Blitzen

[blitzen]

 Northeasterners may get a nice surprise on this run?

[mardatha]

Blitzen I think you're posting the same pic  every single day since Nov. I don't believe thats the view oot yer windae lol unless its groundhog day. Bleugh lol so it is!

[Northernlights]

A question for the more knowledgeable on here just had peek on the model thread and saw where one chart for the 13th of February had -8 850 air heading east  over the  mid north Atlantic meeting -8 850 air coming in from the east so it would appear that we cannot escape cold air from either direction. Has this happened at lot in the past or is it fairly rare?

[blitzen]

I know Mardatha! isn't it just awful?   Seriously, I don't know what has happened to east central belt weather over the last few years.   I'm glad when the holidays come round so I can get away for some heat and light!

 

Edited February 5, 2017 by Blitzen

[Cheggers]

Well I can report a fair bit of snaw falling just behind us on the hills overlooking the road to Fintry, albeit it a sleety wet mess here.

[blitzen]

5 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

A question for the more knowledgeable on here just had peek on the model thread and saw where one chart for the 13th of February had -8 850 air heading east  over the  mid north Atlantic meeting -8 850 air coming in from the east so it would appear that we cannot escape cold air from either direction. Has this happened at lot in the past or is it fairly rare?

I did a double take when I saw that as well NL!   I honestly can't remember if it has happened before and wonder if the wrong 850s have been displayed on the Atlantic side of the chart?

Edited February 5, 2017 by Blitzen

[blitzen]

Anyone else not getting into MT?   I've got 'error 503 service unavailable'   Maybe the 850s are correct and it has crashed the MT!

Don't know what caused that! In now and it looks as if we both have our answer NL.   Cold to the left AND cold to the right.   Blimey!

Edited February 5, 2017 by Blitzen

[skifreak]

1 hour ago, Northernlights said:

A question for the more knowledgeable on here just had peek on the model thread and saw where one chart for the 13th of February had -8 850 air heading east  over the  mid north Atlantic meeting -8 850 air coming in from the east so it would appear that we cannot escape cold air from either direction. Has this happened at lot in the past or is it fairly rare?

IIRC it was similar setup up to the huge snow event in Aviemore and surrounds in 2010 when a warm sector occluded out slowly across Scotland then the wrap around basically stalled across the Central Highlands, it just puked snow for a couple of days! 

[skifreak]

16 minutes ago, skifreak said:

IIRC it was similar setup up to the huge snow event in Aviemore and surrounds in 2010 when a warm sector occluded out slowly across Scotland then the wrap around basically stalled across the Central Highlands, it just puked snow for a couple of days! 

OK temperatures in the North Atlantic were similar, but synoptics no - think I was thinking of the snow from one event and weather setup of another, here are the charts of the two days of constant snowfall in and around Aviemore:

 

Here's the aftermath as seen at Glenmore at 1100ft on Saturday 27th Feb 2010:

 

More Pix (and note that radar returns indicated around 72inches of snowfall at high elevations in little over 48 hours): http://www.winterhighland.info/pix/pixalbum.php?pix_id=609

[EDIT]

Does anyone have the fax charts from that period, I recall there was a couple of instances of 'upside down' lows where the frontal systems were to the North of the low centre as the lows had formed and moved in a Westerly direction.

Edited February 5, 2017 by skifreak

[Ravelin]

Cracking GFS 06z run today if you like cold uppers. Just not a huge signal for precipitation at any point.

Op and Control both sitting at around -10C way out into the run. Now normally you'd worry about them being so different from the mean (which ain't awful itself) but they've been on the colder side of the mean for days now. The mean has been slowly trending towards the colder solutions as the models have progressed.

Still not expecting anything even remotely close to a 09/10 outcome though.

[Nouska]

1 hour ago, Northernlights said:

A question for the more knowledgeable on here just had peek on the model thread and saw where one chart for the 13th of February had -8 850 air heading east  over the  mid north Atlantic meeting -8 850 air coming in from the east so it would appear that we cannot escape cold air from either direction. Has this happened at lot in the past or is it fairly rare?

@skifreak

I would think it is fairly rare.

Working purely from stratosphere profile analogues, takes me to February 1991 and March 2013 for similar 850 temperatures.

1991  2013

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=2&hour=0&year=1991&map=1&region=&mode=2&type=era

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=1&month=3&hour=0&year=2013&map=1&region=&mode=2&type=era

On the ERA link you can view a variety of parameters at six hourly time steps in the format of a model run. Goes back to 1979.

 

 

[Northernlights]

Thank you skifreak and Nouska for your replies. Have always thought that springs are trending  towards longer colder  spells    (even allowing for the fact that snow and frost is not that unusual in spring up here but usually in short bursts and not sustained)    up here in the last ten years or so as cattle turnout dates are getting later into May instead of the end of April.  Seems this spring may be no different.

Not very popular with neighbours when I say seasons are operating two months behind nearly all the time and  probably another cold spring beckons.

[Richard Taylor]

Lightning/thunder right over Aberdeen. Saw the flash! Who needs snaa? 

[blitzen]

6 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

It's my birthday on the day these charts are for and I will happily swap any presents, cards or even cake if this comes off:

Not necessarily a snow fest but certainly very winteresque for everyone. 

We're all in the same boat Catch 'cause 5 of us are in the same week!    (They know who they are)   Must admit tho' that I've often had a white birthday.  

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Well, sun never really managed to break through, although it did to the South and to the West. @CatchMyDrift maybe saw some.

Went for the family walk with dugs up Lauder Burn then back via the side of the golf course (lovely wee 9 holes if you like a game with great views). Overcast as noted, but calm and ~4C.

Sun in the distance.

 

[blitzen]

21 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

It's been quite dull here out west, some sun at sunset.

This rain/snow coming tomorrow evening is going to be a dirty mix:

Head scratch time...

More like head protection time!   Best take one of these into the model thread if you're thinking of visiting.   ECM not playing ball apparently.

Edited February 5, 2017 by Blitzen

[Ravelin]

36 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The ECM is a foul beast this evening, I haven't been near the model thread but have looked at some charts. You'll need more than a hard hat in there. 

Lol, took one look  at the ECM myself and thought the same thing. Staying out of the MT thread for the sake of my sanity.

Decent day here I suppose. Cool but not cold enough for snow as the showers that came through were of rain. Bright in between but not a day that was sunny enough to entice me out and risk getting caught in the cold rain.

[Richard Taylor]

That lightning strike in Aberdeen this afternoon knocked the power from some 2,400 homes in the west & suburbs:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-38874773

It was only the one strike too; I was not aware of any others! 

[edo]

1 hour ago, Ravelin said:

Lol, took one look  at the ECM myself and thought the same thing. Staying out of the MT thread for the sake of my sanity.

Decent day here I suppose. Cool but not cold enough for snow as the showers that came through were of rain. Bright in between but not a day that was sunny enough to entice me out and risk getting caught in the cold rain.

Yup Ra toys are oot Ra pram....to be expected but a bit daft considering anything past about 3 to 4 days is uncertain....cold spell coming and some very cold uppers on ukmo 120 that may even lead to us generating our own snow...one can dream 

[skifreak]

Moon is out, largely clear skies above Inverness as far as can be seen from the city centre where the temp is +0.7ºc. Cold enough for the footbridges to be icy... 

[Hairy Celt]

21 minutes ago, skifreak said:

Moon is out, largely clear skies above Inverness as far as can be seen from the city centre where the temp is +0.7ºc. Cold enough for the footbridges to be icy... 

We were up Craig Phadraig this afternoon (along with lots of bagged dog turds) and it was sort of sleety then. When we left Eden Court later it was cold, clear and starting to get icy...

Looks like a cold, dry and cloudy few days coming up.  How this can generate so much hot air....

Edited February 6, 2017 by Hairy Celt

[GraemeB]

Interestingly just happened to catch tomasz schafernaker's forecast just now (4am) on the Beeb...he's going for a prolonged easterly from mid/late this week, but continued with blocking highs through until next week as well.  

Quite a bold forecast.

[GraemeB]

14 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I found this beauty, it was one of my school books. It's what us old people used before the internet. I still find it like porn for geeks even today although it's now 30 years out of date. It being 30 years out of date is pretty cool as it's now a history book as well as a geography book.

Did you know the UK exports as much as it imports? Now that's a healthy economy...

I remember using that as well!

Now I really do feel old.