Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion

[asjmcguire]

...and more importantly - there is potential for a lot of people to be travelling to visit family. So there is a greater risk of accidents on the roads.

[Hairy Celt]

Been hearing plenty of geese overhead this afternoon, far more than we normally do.

Just had wild piglet vindaloo - should add a few knots to the old windspeed later...

[NorthernRab]

So I'm assuming the Christmas storm might well become Storm Conor?

 

I can think of another c word that might be appropriate.

[asjmcguire]

15 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

So I'm assuming the Christmas storm might well become Storm Conor?

 

I can think of another c word that might be appropriate.

I'd imagine like the last storm that was actually 2 different systems, the Met Office and media might well just call both storms Barbara - the timing between them isn't that big that the public needs to know they are 2 separate systems.

[Norrona2015]

Snow affecting Drumochter pass 

https://trafficscotland.org/map/index.aspx?type=26

 

[asjmcguire]

3 minutes ago, Norrona2015 said:

Snow affecting Drumochter pass 

https://trafficscotland.org/map/index.aspx?type=26

 

https://trafficscotland.org/map/index.aspx?type=26&latitude=56.873889&longitude=-4.257222&zoom=12

https://trafficscotland.org/map/index.aspx?type=16,26&latitude=56.873889&longitude=-4.257222&zoom=12 (if you want weather stations too)

Edited December 20, 2016 by asjmcguire

[skifreak]

Well I've canned my original Christmas plan and am staying in Inverness, irony is that the weather might be less severe further North - but I think I'll have enough rough drives by the weekend judging by the forecast.

While the focus is on wind, I'm a bit concerned that we could effectively get 5 days rainfall in one go, by virtue of snow piling up from now till late Christmas Eve, then being subjected to hurricane force winds, heavy or torrential rain and potentially double digit Munro Level temperatures for a while in the East, and 6-8ºc not out of the question on Western mountains in the early hours through to dawn on Christmas Day. The temperature fluctuations could be spectacular with snow falling at most levels giving way to rain at all levels and back again! 

It could get really rather ugly, does look as if the Inner Moray Firth and then Aberdeen/shire could get the biggest battering from the wind. 

[Daniel*]

Sorry for intruding again... The GFS 18hrs interestingly does not develop the Xmas storm. Crisis averted?  

A decent chance quite a few of you will see snow falling through Christmas Day into Boxing Day so very festive like. Reasonable chance places like Glasgow could see a white Christmas all it takes is one flake while the day starts off mild it turns rather cold by the evening, for any precip to turn wintry even to low levels. On Boxing Day winds swing in from a northerly quadrant less moderation a very cold source would feel absolutely frigid.

 

Edited December 20, 2016 by Changing Skies

[asjmcguire]

I noticed the 18z had changed things somewhat - I think we need to see confirmation from other models (or even the next run) because the 18z GFS has the nickname "pub run" for a reason. It's not always hilariously off course, but - it does have a habit of it......

[edo]

5 hours ago, asjmcguire said:

...and more importantly - there is potential for a lot of people to be travelling to visit family. So there is a greater risk of accidents on the roads.

i actually find the xmas day drive the quietest of the year albeit one of the most important....dont mind a bit of a storm as long as no one has the big day disrupted....as you say not trusting the 18z let's see what the morning models say....I'm at boness Friday for Santa train and someplace near loch lomond on xmas eve for some Santa enchanted village....could be some interesting drives with 4 kids nipping my head 

[mistyqueen]

Morning Peeps! A wee bit nippy here today, temp at 3.6c but no wind! I know that'll change though! I did hear what sounded like hail rattling off the roof a wee while ago. Some forecasts say snaw for us today but I think that'll probably be on high ground only. It does feel rather wintry though, time to get the stove lit!

[Northernlights]

Cold windy with sleet showers and currently 2c.   Hills  round Firth white to quite low levels. Winter has returned.

[Northern Strath]

Aye nice to see winter back, wee covering of snow here after a few showers stormed through this morning, skies to the west look laden 0.1c

[Ravelin]

9 hours ago, asjmcguire said:

I noticed the 18z had changed things somewhat - I think we need to see confirmation from other models (or even the next run) because the 18z GFS has the nickname "pub run" for a reason. It's not always hilariously off course, but - it does have a habit of it......

Only had a quick run through the 0Z runs but it didn't look as if the GFS had the Xmas day storm on that either, so that could be 2 runs in a row. Not be long until the 6Z is out so I'll try to confirm when it is.

3C here this morning and not too much cloud around. It's going to be a real rollercoaster temperature wise the next few days. The forecast maxes starting from today for here are 4, 3, 8, 3, 12(Xmas day), 5, 6, 6.

[Ravelin]

OK, so the GFS 6Z is out to 25th and the storm is still 'missing'.

Not as easy to see on the UKMO or ECM models because of the 24hr jumps and lack of wind charts but I'd say they still have 'something' late Xmas Day into Boxing Day if not as strong and further north.

ECM

UKMO

GFS

Certainly not looking as worrying as it was a day or two ago.

Still looking at very strong winds for the NW and Northern Isles on Friday through into Saturday  though.

[Ravelin]

2 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The 06z continues the theme of no extreme wind on Xmas Day but don't be fooled, it's turned into a rainstorm for the west. Max gusts of 65mph but more than 12 hours of heavy rain.

Aye, looking rather drookit...

Although at least some of that higher stuff should fall as snow, and hopefully not too much melt as the warmer sectors come through.

[asjmcguire]

Interesting that the storm has been downgraded because the Met Office have now issued a Yellow warning for 3/4 of the UK for Christmas Day.

I wonder if it is a case of the models struggling to figure out what will happen after the first deep low pressure system passes through, some "less professional" forecasters are claiming that the models won't get the temperature or precipitation type correct after the the first system has passed through.

[mistyqueen]

Snow on the hills behind the house but nothing to low level. Keeping an eye on the Xmas day 'storm'. The forecast changes what seems to be hourly! I guess it's still a wee bit far out to forecast with any certainty then. I hope it stays as it is at the moment!

[SW Saltire]

Don't want to talk about weather since i last posted (about a month), dry is the only good thing.

 

Very wet last night, very wet this morning. 

Sunny now and 5.1c but was heavy sleet about an hour ago and dropped to 3.5c. Felt much colder when you were outside in the strong wind and heavy sleet/rain i can assure you!

[NUT]

Got Sun, Rain, Hail and sleet currently the whole shebang

[snowidea]

Yep, rain, sleet and the odd snowflake here. Quite yuk.

[Hairy Celt]

Sleet, rain and soft hail, which sounds quite exciting but it's not.

And another thing... why so many Xmas cards covered in bloody glitter this year? Be hoovering and wiping the stuff up till next xmas at this rate.

[NorthernRab]

Currently down near the Clachnaharry area of Inverness (at sea level) and the rain is turning to sleet and wet snow. Higher parts of the city / home should be seeing snow by now. 

[A Winter's Tale]

Briefly snowing here for the first time in over a month. I was beginning to wonder if December was going to be snowless. November, unusually was more like a winter month in terms of the weather we had with a little snow, and some excellent and very cold settled spell in what has been up until now a very anti cyclonic period for a few months now. Model watching since the end of October was more like mid winter with the early promising signs for winter. Alas, the long range forecasts and background signals failed to come to fruition and we've had essentially the very opposite of a front-loaded winter which just goes to show the perils of long range forecasting, especially for this part of the world. 

So after the early optimism, it is particularly frustrating for December to turn out the way it has, especially the first two thirds. Other than an ice day, the odd frost or less mild day/night there has been very little to resemble a December or a winter month, in fact more like October/November. The even more frustrating thing is last December was pretty much the same (if not a little better). The last time December had been remotely seasonal was 2014. 2013 was more like this and last year, and 2011 and 2012 had spells of cold and mild, and some lying snow which I haven't seen here in December since. 

It is disappointing to frequently see much of December being dominated by relentlessly mild weather. It's very normal to have periods of mild weather at this time of year, but 3 of the last 4 years have seen the first two thirds offer very little in conditions which resemble the time of year. Despite my preference for cold and snow I don't mind some mild winter weather as it's part of our climate and can have some benefits and uses but the persistence of the mild weather in recent Decembers have eaten up much of the month with very little winter weather.

At least this year, it's been pretty settled for a change which has prevented storms or flooding and has made some things easier without being outside in 6C in driving cold rain and sleet. But much of the time it has barely felt or looked like December with the absence of chilly, clear evening. And it's been pretty dull, and despite how the settled autumn has been quite refreshing for a change, after a while I've began to miss the the mobility of the Atlantic weather, which we so often complain about, but nevertheless is common and fundamental aspect of our climate which has been largely absent recently. 

As is often the case, we see a change in the weather in the final third of December which sees the year out and introduces the next. In 2015 and 2013, we went from very mild weather to less mild weather and the same could happen this year, accompanied with the return of Atlantic in time for Christmas, bringing the risk if storms which will hopefully be downgraded. We expected more for December than brief shots of polar maritime air, but compared with what we've had, it's better for introducing some normal winter weather and chances of a little snow. We could get an official white Christmas for the first time in 6 years. Although I'd prefer the unofficial white Christmas of lying snow under clear blue sky, rather than some wet snow showers in gale force winds but I suppose it's better than nothing. I still think the rest of winter is all to play for and there are some signs that perhaps January might offer something different. I'm not optimistic of a rewarding new year for cold and snow, but I'm fairly confident that it can't get much worse than what we've endured so far,and there's still plenty of time to get something out of the winter.

 

 

 

[Hawesy]

Heavy shower rattled through St Andrews half an hour ago - some snow pellets mixed in. 3c/2c. Most unpleasant!