Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion

[blitzen]

Bit worried about this so  I honestly hope it downgrades.  

Noticed that Joe B is calling for a 2/3 week mild spell in the east across the pond  and thereafter,  from about the 15th January, getting hit with cold again.   If it does indeed relent for 2/3 weeks over there, what would that mean for us over here I wonder?

Will have to keep a close eye on this now as a couple of local male relatives were supposed to be going across to Edinburgh to family for Christmas dinner.   Forecasted winds as they are at present would close the bridge for sure.   I may end up with a couple more at my table.   (It's a man thing, they wouldn't be able to cope!}

Erm........that is the second large flock of geese I have seen this morning flying back to where they set off from  in October? ( I know they are the same ones because they are still wearing their flip-flops and sunglasses!)

Edited December 19, 2016 by Blitzen
addition to post

[Snowlover2]

Keeping an eye on this storm as my folks are heading over the bridge from Edinburgh for Christmas dinner 

[skifreak]

I'm supposed to be driving from Inverness to the far NW of Sutherland on Christmas morning. I think I'll be bringing camping stove, food, flask, shovel, large saws, ropes.... 

A few years ago did this and it was ferocious driving along by Loch Stack, sheets of water coming off the loch reducing visibility. When I reached the destination we said 'oh it's not so bad here'... then were physically unable to get out the passenger side of the car because of the wind! 

[NorthernRab]

 

Some of my family will be heading up the A9 at this point - Drumochter will be seeing gusts of over 90mph with potentially heavy snow mixed in. Looking problematic!

[blitzen]

Looks like a lot of us will be in some sort of disarray if this kicks off!   Oh well, it's half the battle I suppose if we are forewarned.   Time enough yet to prepare a plan B.

[NorthernRab]

1 hour ago, Blitzen said:

Looks like a lot of us will be in some sort of disarray if this kicks off!   Oh well, it's half the battle I suppose if we are forewarned.   Time enough yet to prepare a plan B.

[blitzen]

9 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

Oh Gawd.......Plagiarism?   Not guilty M'Lord!!!!

Edited December 19, 2016 by Blitzen

[asjmcguire]

I'm a bit disappointed to be honest - with the increased chances of people being out on the roads and other forms of travel - even if it gets downgraded significantly between now and the day - the Met Office should have at least said something (especially since other less reputable sources are).

Matt Taylor is sitting on Twitter telling off various amateurs for mentioning Storm Barbara because "it doesn't even exist yet" which is technically true - but it does exist on computer models.

[asjmcguire]

PS - for a bit of a laugh - here is the text from the email I received from Exacta Weather - let's see whether it turns out to be accurate....

Quote

A number of areas of low pressure and stormy conditions are now very likely to impact our weather patterns within the Christmas Eve to Boxing Day period. This will bring some excessive wind speed gusts in potential excess of 70-100mph in places. On current indications we are also likely to see some significant snowfall in parts to the north and west of the country within this period, and even parts as far south as Central and Southern England could be at risk of some developing snow showers.

 

Third-party weather models will not be in recognition of the actual risk for any significant snow within this period as of yet, as they can't really take into account the quiet between storms and how colder weather will filter in between. Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and Boxing Day are all likely to see some heavy falls of snow in parts to the north and west of the country, and although some parts further south may see rain or sleet, a little nudge is all that is required to bring snow to these parts of the country too. However, the snow across the north and west is very unlikely to be confined to higher ground, and there is absolutely no reason as to why there won't be lying snow on the ground and falling snow in many of these locations throughout the Christmas Eve to Boxing Day period.

 

It is also looking very promising for people who have already placed a bet on a White Christmas for some northern and western locations. Unfortunately the winds will also play a major part and wreak havoc within this period and some moderate to severe damage can be expected in places, and in among some developing blizzard conditions in the northern half of the country at times.

 

[asjmcguire]

@CatchMyDriftyeah but left to us - every storm will either be called Bawbag or Stormy McStormFace

My point is - if you now Google for Storm Barbara - which people are likely to do after they hear about it from someone else or see it written in bold capitals on the front of a newspaper they walk past, they will find pretty much every newspaper - and not just the usual suspects talking about it.

Obviously there is The Sun, The Mail, The Express but there is also The Telegraph, The Independent and various local papers are now covering it - if the Met Office don't name this storm as Barbara they will have to skip it - because if the next one that comes along does warrant a name and they name it Barbara it will just cause massive confusion with the public. Yes the Met Office should be in charge of deciding if a storm gets a name (though many argue they have done a really poor job on this up to now) - but once the press have taken over - they really need to just accept that the storm has been named.

[Ravelin]

12 minutes ago, asjmcguire said:

@CatchMyDriftyeah but left to us - every storm will either be called Bawbag or Stormy McStormFace

My point is - if you now Google for Storm Barbara - which people are likely to do after they hear about it from someone else or see it written in bold capitals on the front of a newspaper they walk past, they will find pretty much every newspaper - and not just the usual suspects talking about it.

Obviously there is The Sun, The Mail, The Express but there is also The Telegraph, The Independent and various local papers are now covering it - if the Met Office don't name this storm as Barbara they will have to skip it - because if the next one that comes along does warrant a name and they name it Barbara it will just cause massive confusion with the public. Yes the Met Office should be in charge of deciding if a storm gets a name (though many argue they have done a really poor job on this up to now) - but once the press have taken over - they really need to just accept that the storm has been named.

It's a difficult one for the Met Office. If they do name it now then it could turn out to be nothing other than slightly breezy, as could still happen at this range. Then people will 'blame' them for scaremongering when they were effectively forced into it. I suppose it's one of the pitfalls of the whole storm naming system

[blitzen]

Oh Joy..............

 

[asjmcguire]

19 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

Oh Joy..............

955?! and that's Friday? Is this close enough to the reliable timeframe to be starting to get a bit worried about this?

[blitzen]

4 minutes ago, asjmcguire said:

955?! and that's Friday? Is this close enough to the reliable timeframe to be starting to get a bit worried about this?

UKMO has it as a bit slacker though.    Some posts are saying that it is moving north on each run.   However, another one forecast for Christmas day so that would be 2 within 48hrs?   Waiting now to see ECM's take on it.

[asjmcguire]

9 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

UKMO has it as a bit slacker though.    Some posts are saying that it is moving north on each run.   However, another one forecast for Christmas day so that would be 2 within 48hrs?   Waiting now to see ECM's take on it.

I notice the Met Office have a Yellow wind warning out for Wednesday into Thursday.... I wasn't really aware there was anything particularly stormy on Wednesday into Thursday because everyone is concentrating on the Christmas storm. Moving North on each run is good news for some of us - though it's obviously not going to help Orkney/Shetlands much.....

[blitzen]

7 minutes ago, asjmcguire said:

I notice the Met Office have a Yellow wind warning out for Wednesday into Thursday.... I wasn't really aware there was anything particularly stormy on Wednesday into Thursday because everyone is concentrating on the Christmas storm. Moving North on each run is good news for some of us - though it's obviously not going to help Orkney/Shetlands much.....

I wasn't aware of any wind for Wednesday/Thursday either.   I am always wary of GFS and its low pressure wind ups, (pun intended)   Let's hope this Christmas affair is yet another of them.

Edited December 19, 2016 by Blitzen

[asjmcguire]

16 minutes ago, Blitzen said:

I wasn't aware of any wind for Wednesday/Thursday either.   I am always wary of GFS and its low pressure wind ups, (pun intended)   Let's hope this Christmas affair is yet another of them.

Quote

Cold and blustery westerly winds are expected to bring heavy and frequent wintry showers across northern and western Scotland on Wednesday and Thursday. Gales are likely at times along the west coast and the Northern Isles with winds gusting to around 55 mph. The strongest of the winds should ease later on Thursday.

Frequent lightning may be an additional hazard across the Northern and Western Isles and the west coast in particular with the potential for disruption to power supplies.

Upland areas are expected to see some appreciable snowfalls with accumulations of 5 to 10 cm possible on higher routes across the western and central Highlands. Some slushy accumulations are also possible at lower elevations at times. Ice is likely to form on untreated surfaces on Wednesday night into Thursday morning,

 

[Norrona2015]

Storm force winds forecast for the Cairngorms tomorrow. Heavy snow leading to temporary white out conditions on Wednesday. Snow falling to low levels on Thursday and lying.

http://www.mwis.org.uk/home

 

[mistyqueen]

Please tell me this will downgrade! Pleeeeeaaaaase!

[blitzen]

4 hours ago, mistyqueen said:

Please tell me this will downgrade! Pleeeeeaaaaase!

Don't look Ethel!      Well maybe a tiny bit better for you on the 18z but we cop it instead in the central belt.   It's shifting every run.   Bit of a waiting game really.  Didn't you have a lot of damage to your roof last year?

Edited December 19, 2016 by Blitzen

[mistyqueen]

A large chunk of it disappeared and we had the whole of the back roof replaced. No point in just patching it as the old roof felt below the tiles was rotten anyway. Hopefully the storm will downgrade and no-one will have power cuts or severe damage to property and everyone travelling to see family will get there safely! Is that just wishful thinking?

 

[mountain shadow]

2 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Please don't forget that at the moment the GFS is suggesting two storms. A more northern storm on Friday with extreme winds for the north including you and a second more southerly storm on Xmas Day with the strongest winds further south over the Clyde-Forth isthmus. This can and will change between now and then. You'll also have gales for a time tonight with gusts up to about 60mph if the GFS is correct.

Im in a pedantic mood this morning, i think you meant Clyde-Forth axis not isthmus.

;-)

Im in a right grumpy mood with the boring weather.

[Northern Strath]

Raw oot today, 0c and breezy as I left with everything solid after a low of -3c. Tomorrow looks fun, maybe snow to low levels in some parts 

[mardatha]

10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Im in a pedantic mood this morning, i think you meant Clyde-Forth axis not isthmus.

;-)

Im in a right grumpy mood with the boring weather.

He meant "the middle bit". (That's a highly technical weather term in case you didn't know,MS) 

I'm almost suicidal wi the weather. Husband & I have cabin fever cos I'm too tired and he's too cauld to go out anywhere or do anything.

[asjmcguire]

1 minute ago, mardatha said:

He meant "the middle bit". (That's a highly technical weather term in case you didn't know,MS) 

I'm almost suicidal wi the weather. Husband & I have cabin fever cos I'm too tired and he's too cauld to go out anywhere or do anything.

There is nowhere to go - all the shops are closing down / have closed down and the ones that are still open have terrible stock and it's all too crowded and argh!

(Went to Gala on Friday, paid for parking at B&M because we didn't know, and got to look at one whole shelf of stuff for 30 seconds, B&Q was out of everything we went in for, ASDA doesn't have the stuff we expect them to - Chocolate Liqueurs, Jellied sweets - and the Tobacco counter was out of Lambert & Butler - UNTIL MONDAY)