Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion

[Hawesy]

Evening all, 15c at Leuchars at 7pm, that wouldn't be out of place in July! To be fair the wind took the edge off the exceptionally mild weather today in NE Fife, it was quite strong and gusty.

[asjmcguire]

10 hours ago, mardatha said:

Could whoever it was who posted pics of the wee box he made for the weather station sensor, please gimme the link to the pics? Husband wants to make one for ours. TY!

Note sure what exactly you are asking for - are you just wanting me to re-post the link from a few pages back?

If so - this is it: https://goo.gl/photos/vberuHRJAfPpkoTB7

[mardatha]

Yes that's it ta. I looked and couldn't see it! TY

[asjmcguire]

Just now, mardatha said:

Yes that's it ta. I looked and couldn't see it! TY

No problem, just added one more photo in there - it's what the ventilator looks like hanging on the shelf at B&Q - however it might not be the actual one I used as the photo appears to have been taken after the box has been built and painted - and I'm sure the ones we had were in a blue packet not a red one - but in any case - it makes it clear what sort of thing it was that we actually bought.

[Northernlights]

Water condensation pouring off old steading  frozen stone walls as they warm up again today most I have ever seen .On high alert for pneumonia in housed animals with such a violent temperature swing. Every door in steading wide open to maximise air circulation and at least the gale tonight is keeping the air refreshed.

 

It might just be old age but I have found this year on the farm particularly challenging with regards to the weather

A spell of winter at the end of April stopping all growth and leaving us short of grazing grass for the cattle,   an outbreak of diamond back moths in turnips in late June (A Southern European pest which managed to overwinter in N Europe in the mild conditions)   a very dull  damp mid June to early August  (Kids holidays) preventing haymaking and leading to poor grainfill /lower yields and low  quality in the barley(we won"t mention prices halving in the last  two years) and a fabulous early autumn leading to excess lush grass growth which made the cows too fat for calving which in turn has given us  a lot of work at calving with huge calves.

Currently 13.5c   and very windy but dry.    Positive for the day at least   leaves are getting tidied up into drifts so will be easier to rake up now

Edited December 8, 2016 by Northernlights

[Harve]

Still 12c at midnight. After quite a chilly November it feels really odd. I know last December got even milder than this but it was also preceded by months of mild and wet weather. 

[Ravelin]

Temperature dropped through the night from around 13C at 11pm down to 5.2C this morning at 8:30am. Still feels quite 'mild' though under grey skies with no wind.

As @CatchMyDrift says, the ECM this morning has deviated hugely from recent expectations for around this time next week and is completely different from the GFS at the same time. We'll need to see who'll be right as it looks like either a semi-cold, wet blast from the NW (ECM) or high pressure over us, probably chilly (GFS). The latter is probably the form bet at the moment but since some in the MOD thread seem to worship the ECM and deride the GFS it'll cause some consternation if the GFS turns out to 'beat' the ECM.

Tentative signs of something colder being possible in the run up to Xmas. Very tentative signs!

[mistyqueen]

Well, a better morning than yesterday, when we managed 97.3mm of rain! We were out in that trying to rig up new accommodation for ducks and hens as they all have to be grounded for 30 days due to this outbreak of swine flu in Europe. Ducks will have a new temporary home in one of our garden sheds which we cleared out and I've laid sawdust and straw and left a wee paddling pool in there too! Chooks are in original duck hut which has more room. All we have to do is round up the ducks and try and get them into the shed! Cue Benny Hill music.....

Edited December 8, 2016 by mistyqueen

[Jo Farrow]

On 11/30/2016 at 23:05, asjmcguire said:

I have high hopes that the new GOES-16 satellite will significantly improve the GFS model - but I honestly don't know a huge amount about what the new satellite will mean in real terms to the likes of the GFS and possibly even the UKMO model. I hope someone like @fergieweather or @Jo Farrow might be able to provide us mere mortals with a bit more information on what benefits both the professionals and the amateurs are likely to see in the near term.

 

 

I thought I read something recently but can't find it at the mo (or I imagined it) so I've asked MO 

and this relates to GFS, GOES-R is GOES-16 http://www.noaa.gov/noaa’s-premier-forecast-model-goes-four-dimensional 

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-successfully-launches-noaa-advanced-geostationary-weather-satellite 

Edited December 8, 2016 by Jo Farrow

[101_North]

Still mild out but a much better day than yesterday. I'm away with work next week and bizarrely have a slim shot at seeing some white stuff falling in the normally snow-less, usually mild, frequently drenched, mostly grey, lowland Seattle area. Temps look low for there too with maxes of 2c and lows of -4c by the middle of next week. Hopefully feeling seasonal at least.   

Edited December 8, 2016 by 101_North

[edo]

sorry team was busy last night but here us the excellent stewfox summary of the 24 hrs model watching up to last night 

 

Another day and another 24 hrs of model watching.

Pub another quite affair The ECM and GFS were showing similar trends to T240 small uncertainties in  how far north the high will get 

However the  Gfs 18z! did show some interest at T384. Although that was many flip flops away.

This Morning

Flip flop back “ 0z is the most boring and mild run some folk have ever seen with endless southwesterlies.” (Get use that roller coaster) .

The theme started with  no point looking further than D10 today as we don't have the building blocks for cold in place at a reliable timeframe and  long range models are unclear

The GFS 06hrs run now ejects the shortwave near Iceland! (big flip flops)

Afternoon

Interesting discussions followed about back ground signals and why we have not seen a front loaded winter. Although its difficult to understand how we then can determine we wont get any cold/snow till min mid Jan if background signals have not been correct ??

While the 12z rolls out, with  a  Happy white Christmas awesome chart , by Xmas day we'd be cold with chance of snow for sure gfs gfs gfs

 GFS ensembles pick up some interest post T240 but we are talking about slight amplification only and perhaps a failed northerly (boo GFS)

Evening

Definitely a upgrade in GEFS, including control 

 T240 is FI so lots of nice xmas charts are posted.

JMA showing some interest in amplifying the pattern.

Some promise on the ECM at 192/216 materialises itself into nothing (boo)

But do we have right out in la la land pressure rise to the north west - just like the gfs 

When you see folk looking at ensembles in Holland it’s a bit of s straw clutch

Some great posts today but nothing really to get hold of, again we need a sign.

Cold 1/10 (Background signals 0.00002)

For those old enough to remember the famous pub run of 28 Nov how things change 

-----------------------

Pub was just about to close last night and we had a few big hitters GP, Fergie etc basically said drinks are on the house.

“”12z ECMWF ENS set against model climatology lean pretty firmly in median 2m temps towards below avg (at times quite markedly) out to at least 9 Dec. “”

“”.and a big intrusion if the N Pacific ridge into the Arctic towards the mid Atlantic ridge. Strongly negative AO latter stages of the EPS””

Tamara adds a few cheeky Christmas charts and it’s a lock in.

-----------------------

Prozac being ordered

[Hairy Celt]

A decent day on the Black Isle - good enough to get out on the bike.  Snapped these near Munlochy, a very wintery scene (apart from the lack of snow...)

 

[Hairy Celt]

1 hour ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Weather & models are a no-go zone unless SW winds float your boat.

So....I've got a tin of Dulux and a wall, anyone up for a quick game? 

Quite happy with my lawn thanks...

[Jo Farrow]

On 11/30/2016 at 23:05, asjmcguire said:

I have high hopes that the new GOES-16 satellite will significantly improve the GFS model - but I honestly don't know a huge amount about what the new satellite will mean in real terms to the likes of the GFS and possibly even the UKMO model. I hope someone like @fergieweather or @Jo Farrow might be able to provide us mere mortals with a bit more information on what benefits both the professionals and the amateurs are likely to see in the near term.

 

Here it is , knew I'd read something but it is very similar to the NASA link. Don't have anything more specific yet https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/11/18/goes-r-taking-weather-observation-to-new-heights/  

[Ravelin]

2 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Weather & models are a no-go zone unless SW winds float your boat.

So....I've got a tin of Dulux and a wall, anyone up for a quick game? 

Oh, oh, first can we get one of those colour charts and spend hours deciding which exact shade of 'off white' to paint the walls? 

Might manage a frost here as it's currently 0.7C, much lower than predicted. Probably because it was predicted to be cloudy and isn't. 

[Hawesy]

8c here this morning, we may see some drizzle or light rain today so that should liven things up. ;-)

The mild weather starting to show in the monthly summary with Scottish readings generally  between +1.5 and +3c above normal.

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/CURR.html

[Ravelin]

Made it down to -1.1C overnight but currently around 3C and it looks as if it's been raining. 

[Northernlights]

Dull and damp this morning currently 12.9c

A story for Hairy Celt.                                  Putting sheep into fresh grass field yesterday and had to rescue a sheep which had fallen backwords into a badger hole in the old field with only its head showing above ground.There are holes in every field, there are just too many badgers doing damage and destroying ground based wildlife.

Read a wildlife report too on the new A96 dual carriageway which stated  on the new route between Inverness and Brodie there are 272 badger setts. It was also stated that the impact of the new road on the population of badgers in the area would be negligible

Edited December 9, 2016 by Northernlights

[Hairy Celt]

My lawn grew a bit today....

@NorthernlightsYeah, badgers...  I don't remember what it was like before they got protection in 1981 but I guess numbers have mushroomed since then.  Moray seems to bursting at the seams with them.  Problem would be how to regulate their numbers without cruelty I suppose - there are some downright nasty folk around who would use any excuse to have some 'fun'.

In the absence of frost and snow, I'll take pics of some old favourites... Here's an old beech near us, in winter shutdown. beech always manage to retain their grandeur even at this time, something to do with the steely look of the bark over the rusty leaves

Edited December 9, 2016 by Hairy Celt

[biggreyface]

So it now  looks like uncle barty is coming round for chrisrmas he'll now doubt raid the fridge and the freezer  and take anything that's cold away.Then after his unwanted 2 week stay he'll just get up and leave and all that will be left is the mild yellow and green stain from  where hes been plonked. 

[Ravelin]

3 hours ago, biggreyface said:

So it now  looks like uncle barty is coming round for chrisrmas he'll now doubt raid the fridge and the freezer  and take anything that's cold away.Then after his unwanted 2 week stay he'll just get up and leave and all that will be left is the mild yellow and green stain from  where hes been plonked. 

You are sooo out of date, things move quickly in the model thread. Now the 18z GFS tries to bring us "The beast from the East"...

But it doesn't quite make it, and probably by tomorrow we'll be back to mild mush from now until eternity.

[asjmcguire]

On 08/12/2016 at 22:08, Jo Farrow said:

Here it is , knew I'd read something but it is very similar to the NASA link. Don't have anything more specific yet https://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2016/11/18/goes-r-taking-weather-observation-to-new-heights/  

Thanks for the links Jo. I assume in the coming months now that it is in position and near to starting operations we will get an update on how it will be used for forecasting the weather - as opposed to being used after-the-fact for more of research / statistics job.

As for @CatchMyDrift can I suggest that as we are going to be watching the paint dry, as well as choosing the colour as @Ravelin suggests - maybe we should ensure we use the worst possible conditions so that the paint takes so much longer to dry.

As for the recent chat about the weather models, I assume - that if they still flip flopping on every run - we are still very much at the point that nothing they show can be taken seriously, until at the very least we get a consistent several days of output plus Ensembles and ideally at least a few other models following the general idea. But as of right now - not only are runs inconsistent, Ensembles are inconsistent and models are not agreeing on a general outcome.

Does this sound reasonably like where we are right now?

Edited December 10, 2016 by asjmcguire

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

Sun is out! :-) 9c here this morning. Not often you see the words 'less mild' and 'max 11c' in a forecast in December but that's what we have from the Met Office today.

[mistyqueen]

It's a Meh kind of day here again, murky and mild with horizontal rain. Oh for some clear skies and sunshine and crisp frost! A girl can dream, eh? Just had a look at GFS wind speed charts for the weeks ahead. Boxing day looks interesting, although I realise that's a long way off and a lot can change. I do hope so! 

Edited to say it always helps to add a piccie, although the charts have already changed since this morning. This now shows a storm for late Christmas day rather than Boxing day.

Edited December 10, 2016 by mistyqueen

[johncam]

this Dec could turn out milder than last year if this keeps on, well for us in Scotland!!!!!!