Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion

[edo]

some meto detail picked up from a friend of a friend, confirms a slushfest for many imo and some awesomeness for those with elevation  

 

Some further detail on today, tomorrow’s snowy forecast and then rain on Friday and Saturday:

 

Today: will remain windy over the far north of the country, with the far north of Lewis, the far north of the mainland, Orkney, southern parts of Shetland and the northeast tip of Aberdeenshire covered by a Yellow Warning for Wind until 1500 today. There are no plans to change this – we’ve seen gusts into the 70s over the Northern Isles this morning and this will slowly ease through the rest of this morning and early part of this afternoon.

 

Tomorrow: Just before midnight tonight, rain will start to spread in from the southwest heralding the arrival of Storm Doris. This will spread north and eastwards during the course of the small hours, bringing snow to high levels at first and then down to lower levels across southern and central Scotland by morning. By dawn, we’re expecting it to be snowing over a large part of central and southern Scotland making a very tricky rush period tomorrow morning across this area with snow settling above 150m and a slushy/sleety mix at lower levels. The snow should start to clear from western areas late morning, and should clear the east coast by mid to late afternoon. In total, we can expect to see 10-15cm of lying snow accumulate over 150m, with some local accumulations of 20-30cm possible here. Over D&G and the western Borders wind speeds will also strengthen during the course of the morning, leading to blizzard conditions over higher areas. For the far SW, gusts could reach 50-60mph for a time mid morning tomorrow, so areas west of Newton Stewart have been included in a wider Yellow Warning For Wind (which also affects the majority of England, Wales and some of NI). The main impacts from wind itself are expected to be confined to areas south of the border, where an Amber for Wind was issued yesterday.

 

For the snow, we have just issued an Amber Warning for Snow for most of the Lothians, Borders, Lanarkshires, East Ayrshire and northern D&G. This is valid from 0200 to 1800 on Thursday and based on a medium likelihood of medium impacts. Sitting behind this will be a Yellow Warning of Snow for a wider area, extending over much of the rest of the West of Scotland area, into southern Highland, Aberdeenshire and the higher parts of Tayside, Forth Valley and Fife – this based on a medium likelihood of low impact and also valid 0200 to 1800 on Thursday.

 

At lower lying elevations, heavy persistent rain could give rise to some surface water issues through the morning, particularly so over the Solway Firth area, where we expect to shortly issue an additional Yellow Warning for Rain, valid approx 2200 this evening to 1400 on Thursday, based on a medium likelihood of low impacts

 

After the band of precipitation clears during tomorrow afternoon, showers will occasionally bring further spells of rain or snow during the night and Friday morning, but we’re not currently expecting these to cause further resilience issues.

 

Later on Friday, we’re expecting milder air and band of heavy rain to move in and persist for much of the night and then further spells of rain during the day on Saturday. We are keeping an eye on this as the heavy rain and melting of lying snow could have the potential to cause a few impacts. As an early heads up, we’ll be issuing a Yellow Warning for Rain for Argyll & Bute and much of Highland, and this will continue to be reviewed in the coming days.

[Ross B]

1 hour ago, ruzzi (snowboy) said:

I can't remember where I read it but I'm sure I read somewhere before that 1mm of precipitation is equivalent to between 0.5 - 1.0 cm of snow (the variation comes with temperature) so being in the U.K. it's always more likely that there will be warmer sectors involved etc etc so would be safer go with the lower estimate but on that basis maybe between 10 - 20 cm. I hope I'm not making it up, I'm certain I read it somewhere before lol 

Yeah I always go with rain to snow as.. 1mm rain=1cm snow =1kentimetre snow in the UK

Edited February 22, 2017 by Ross B

[Cheggers]

Heavy snow is expected on Thursday. Accumulations of 10 to 15 cm are likely quite widely with 20 to 30 cm falling on hills above 300 metres. This will lead to disruption to transport and perhaps power supplies.

This is the Met Forecast for Falkirk only , we are in the Amber zone, so slush feast it will be then. lol or we could be buried. 

Edited February 22, 2017 by Cheggers

[Methuselah]

I'm so so glad I'm not the only one, Catch!

[Ross B]

6 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Snow preparations part two!! MrsCatch has cleaned all windows inside and out so we can watch the prawn cracker flakes billowing down. I've stocked up on some extra wood for the fire for when the electric goes off and the heating stops working and I've set some alarms for the morning. I've also set up an automatic snow measuring device for my garden. The first tape is set at 15cm and indicates what the snow depth will be at daybreak tomorrow. The second mark is at 30cm and indicates the snow depth once the snow stops falling. I can't think of anything else to do but wait...

 

If anyone can think of something I've forgotten please let me know!!  

Picnic table  oh and snow!

Ps hope it doesn't rain now!!

Edited February 22, 2017 by Ross B

[Ross B]

1 minute ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Don't be daft, when do these things ever go wrong? 

Well, I certainly can't remember the last time it went wrong so must not have happened...

 

Nice dug!

Edited February 22, 2017 by Ross B

[101_North]

9 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Snow preparations part two!! MrsCatch has cleaned all windows inside and out so we can watch the prawn cracker flakes billowing down. I've stocked up on some extra wood for the fire for when the electric goes off and the heating stops working and I've set some alarms for the morning. I've also set up an automatic snow measuring device for my garden. The first tape is set at 15cm and indicates what the snow depth will be at daybreak tomorrow. The second mark is at 30cm and indicates the snow depth once the snow stops falling. I can't think of anything else to do but wait...

 

If anyone can think of something I've forgotten please let me know!!  

Jump on to the forum and gloat to 101 that you have more snow than him?

[JoeShmoe]

I've set up a ruler in the back garden too

 

[101_North]

4 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I'll let you measure in centimetres and I'll measure in feet and I'll win 1-0.1  

How do you know I won't cheat? My wife reckons that I tend to exaggerate measurements!

[edo]

@CatchMyDriftis on fire today....... chuckling away here is decent consolation for my guaranteed slush (reverse approach ) from me after my failed attempts of positivity at last spell.

[Soaring Hawk]

The only thing that'll make me feel better for being in the central belt a sodding week too early is to sit in front of my wood burner pretending I'm back up there, while hoping the garden trees,in this normally weather dead zone, survive the mild *spit* wind.  Please, please post eleventy billion photos to help mitigate my poor timing and facilitate this unhealthy fixation with being back in snowy Scotland.  Thank you so much!

Really hope you all have the amounts you want, especially Catch!

Edited February 22, 2017 by Soaring Hawk

[101_North]

All we need now is Hawsey popping up with his accumulation estimates and we're all screwed 

[Ravelin]

1 hour ago, CatchMyDrift said:

If anyone can think of something I've forgotten please let me know!!

Just don't forget to let the dog back in before going to bed! It'll kind of ruin the day if you look out in the morning and and notice a frozen pair of ears sticking up out of the snow.

[Spikecollie]

16 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Clyde is in ok lol he's MrsCatch's number one baby so he'd never be left out!!

Sorry for butting into your thread, but I'm looking at everyone's tonight in anticipation of tomorrow! What a lovely name for a dog! What breed is he?

Dogs love the wind and ours have always seemed to get very exuberant in it. Snow - a physical and mental reverie!

Stay safe though, all of you...

Edited February 22, 2017 by Spikecollie

[mardatha]

Catch - when is it to start for us here in the Borders?

ie what time will I set my alarm for to dig my elbow into the hubby's ribs and tell him to get up and look out of the window

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Tomorrow's looking fun! I'm not too far from the amber warning area so no one else give up hope just yet if you're in my position! I distinctly remember the breakdown in March 2013, when I was forecast to get 10cm, and ended up with almost more than what was forecast for the amber area! I've been successful in these situations before, I just hope it doesn't rain too much before the snow starts. 

Dying for at least 10cm, please god! 

[Bullseye]

Found this on Twitter around an hour ago, dear I say Glasgow looks to be in with a good shout of being one of the locations which could do really well out of this.

Edited February 22, 2017 by Bullseye

[mardatha]

5 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Found this on Twitter around an hour ago, dear I say Glasgow looks to be in with a good shout of being one of the locations which could do really well out of this.

SLAP BANG ON TOP MY ROOF lol

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

39 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Clyde is in ok lol he's MrsCatch's number one baby so he'd never be left out!!

This hangs at our back door.

[Ross B]

14 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Found this on Twitter around an hour ago, dear I say Glasgow looks to be in with a good shout of being one of the locations which could do really well out of this.

I've been watching the Euro4 closely over the last day or so, it's consistently had a very heavy area of snow just to the south west of Glasgow (where I am) on the edge of rain/snow so you never know.... I'd rather be in the larger sweet spot but it's only a model prediction after all!

Edited February 22, 2017 by Ross B

[Spikecollie]

12 minutes ago, scottish skier said:

This hangs at our back door.

And so it should! I'll be having the same with our new incoming pup! Hope you get what you want for tomorrow, and none of what you don't! 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

20 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Found this on Twitter around an hour ago, dear I say Glasgow looks to be in with a good shout of being one of the locations which could do really well out of this.

SLAP BANG OVER ME!! Come on, Inverclyde deserves this!! 

[skifreak]

8 hours ago, Ross B said:

You'll end up with more snow than most of the ski centres have... looking forward to the photos tomorrow!

We are going to see snow in and around parts of the Central Belt, perhaps carnage on the higher and in particular more exposed parts of the A74 and M74, very high winds across much of England -> All leading to big media coverage, spectacular snow footage on TV, big interest to going skiing generated and realistically not one single skiable run at the five Highland areas this weekend.

The Ski Areas will miss most of the snow, not get as severe drifting as the stronger winds are further South, then be subjected to silly Munro Level temperatures, incessant rain (at least in the West) and Storm Force SW'ly winds on Saturday. 

Meanwhile after 56 inches of snow in 36hours (thats when they passed the 500 mark for the season and its now at 556) this is Kirkwood in California, the lucky few who've been trapped in Kirkwood for the past 3 days as State Route 88 remains blocked by snow on one side of Kirkwood and by avalanche and mudslide debris on the other! 

[Ruzzi]

In my head I had made some sort of similarity with the snow storm of 26th / 27th February 2001 and this approaching 'snow' storm, however upon checking it's not really similar at all. It was my all time best snow day.... 60cm of level snow and drifts so big that I could walk onto the roofs of cottages and over the top of transit vans. Don't know if anyone remembers it? 

[spindrift1980]

It's been an astonishingly poor season for snow in the Scottish mountains, at least as bad as the worst years in the 2000s. Still time for things to change but I wouldn't hold out much prospect of any/many of the usual snow patch sites holding snow until the first snows of 2017/18.

The ski centre operators must be tearing their hair out then when a storm does eventually arrive, it ends up well to their south. Lowther Ski Club might be taking Friday off work though!