Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion

[GraemeB]

Just reading Bring Back1962-63's post in the MT and can't help thinking he's building them all up until the inevitable happens, and the easterly develops with a whimper.

There could be a monumental toy chucking event coming up in the next week or so which will forever go down in history as the Great Toorp Event of 2017.

 

[blitzen]

47 minutes ago, GraemeB said:

I remember using that as well!

Now I really do feel old.

Oh!   your books were in colour?

Bit nippy round the proverbials this morning but the sun looks as if it might make an appearance at last!

'Gonnae haud ma wheesht'  re the models this morning as I don't want to jinx anything!

Edited February 6, 2017 by Blitzen

[Hairy Celt]

1 minute ago, Blitzen said:

Oh!   your books were in colour?

Bit nippy round the proverbials this morning but the sun looks as if it will make  an appearance at last!

'Gonnae haud ma wheesht'  re the models this morning as I don't want to jinx anything!

You had books? We had to make do with scratching on slates.

Freezing here, not going out to check the thermometer till I've found some clothes.

[Ravelin]

45 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Freezing here, not going out to check the thermometer till I've found some clothes.

Just as well, we can do without reports of Yeti/Bigfoot sightings from the Black Isle.

Well a calm, cold, bright frosty start to the day here. Temp at 8:30am in Kemnay was -5.0C, but just 12 miles away in Dyce, and 20mins later, it was a balmy 1C.

Edited February 6, 2017 by Ravelin

[skifreak]

1 hour ago, Hairy Celt said:

Freezing here, not going out to check the thermometer till I've found some clothes.

Don't be a big girls blouse! 

[blitzen]

31 minutes ago, skifreak said:

Don't be a big girls blouse! 

He'll be on the 6 o clock News!

[Jo Farrow]

NCM observers needed for East Lothian Met Office weather site. Volunteer roles once a day.

http://dunbarcommunitycouncil.org.uk/volunteers-required-for-dunbars-weather-station/ 

#Dunbar 

[Gogoslo]

So the cold from the east is nearly "nailed on" for later in the week.   Could be a weekend of lampost watching on the cards ????

[skifreak]

I posted this on Winterhighland but will post it here as it's certainly noteworthy. A few may have read 'Scottish Skiing is doomed' type reports last week or seen a similar story and an extraordinarily negative interview from the general manager of CairnGorm Mountain Ltd!

There is no doubt we have had an exceptional run of 5 months benign weather since the start of meteorological autumn, but the following stat puts a wee bit of perspective on the temperature last month.

Mean January temperature anomaly for Scotland with respect to the 61-90 average and comparative webcam images from Glencoe from 30th January (clear view on each year): 

January 2017: Temperature anomaly +1.5°c 

 

 

January 2014: Temperature anomaly +1.5°c

 

[blitzen]

This might be an interesting snippet for some of you

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/the-10-worst-british-winters-ever-8945584.html?action=gallery

Interesting because of this tweet from Joe B:-Rare high amplitude phase 8 MJO for Feb being forecasted only 3 times last 40 years.. 1999,1988,1978

Notice that one of those years -1978/79 is mentioned in the above article as being one of the worst UK winters

Also, this happened in Scotland/Northern England area in 1999.......F5-11th Feb., Scotland and northern England, Aberdeen 1ft

Unfortunately, I don't think there was anything of UK note in 1988 as that then would have raised the possibility of bad winters being MJO phase 8 related.

Still, we shouldn't have long to wait to find out.

[mardatha]

So will I get or not? I don't like to waste energy without a good reason

[edo]

a Yellow Warning of Ice for much of the mainland for the overnight period tonight. A band of rain will start to move into western areas late this afternoon and will slowly make its way eastward across the country during this evening. Over high ground (above around 300m), this is likely to fall as snow. There’s the possibility of some of the prone roads seeing some difficulties this evening, particularly across the southern and eastern Highlands, with strong winds and persistent snow.  After this band of rain clears towards the end of the night, temperatures will dip below freezing, creating the possibility of a widespread ice risk across much of the southern and central parts of the country. The warning is valid from 8pm this evening until 10am tomorrow and is based on an assessment of a medium likelihood of low impacts.

In addition, met office have received a couple of enquiries this morning regarding some press speculation of a very cold period starting towards the end of February. The speculation looks to have mixed some standard text information on their website with the 6 to 30 day outlook in order to come up with a story that is a bit more dramatic than the reality.   

 

It looks like we will have a spell of cold weather through to the end of February and into March, but there are no signs of any unusual weather at the moment. The latest 6 to 30 day outlook mentions the potential for some snow showers this weekend, and a chance of rain or snow for the northwest next week. However, there’s generally more of a signal for very cold, settled conditions with overnight frosts and fog.

Info above from my friend via the experts ..... looking like Ravelin been on the money and my snowy spell still a dream....still if the colds here always a chance

 

CMD outstanding post above...thoroughly enjoyed looking at all the charts and the pictorial results....

[Ravelin]

1 hour ago, skifreak said:

I posted this on Winterhighland but will post it here as it's certainly noteworthy. A few may have read 'Scottish Skiing is doomed' type reports last week or seen a similar story and an extraordinarily negative interview from the general manager of CairnGorm Mountain Ltd!

Forgetting about the CML numptie, it's not the temp this year that's been the main problem for the ski resorts as it's been plenty cold enough at times, it's been the lack of any precipitation.

What was the year recently where the resorts were having real problems keeping running because of the sheer amount of snow and having to constantly dig out the lifts? It wasn't last year, maybe 2014/15? I remember it raining virtually constantly for weeks on end at low level but I'd never seen snow so deep on the hills. It'd be interesting to compare the temp anomaly that year to the ones you've shown.

[skifreak]

19 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

What was the year recently where the resorts were having real problems keeping running because of the sheer amount of snow and having to constantly dig out the lifts? 

It was 2013/14 - the season the Jan webcam image was from. It snowed every day at Glencoe from start of Jan for over 60 consecutive days!

The winter of 2013/14 as a whole was milder than the very poor 2007 and 2012 seasons, but brought at least as much snow as 1994 to the Western mountains.

Edited February 6, 2017 by skifreak

[Ravelin]

16 minutes ago, skifreak said:

It was 2013/14 - the season the Jan webcam image was from.

Ah thanks, I'm getting older much quicker than I thought then. Awesome snow amounts that season even in the East, with the only problem finding a 'weather window' to get onto the slopes, especially when restricted to weekends due to work.

[Hairy Celt]

46 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Ah thanks, I'm getting older much quicker than I thought then. Awesome snow amounts that season even in the East, with the only problem finding a 'weather window' to get onto the slopes, especially when restricted to weekends due to work.

I was in north-east Sutherland all that winter and we got next to no snow.  Vicarious snow doesn't have quite the same appeal - as we all know.

Oh and I did get dressed eventually today and found it had got down to 0C overnight here.  The car still needed a good scrape at 10:30 (which was done fully clothed).

@CatchMyDrift - I have a copy of the 1952 meteorological atlas produced by HMSO - it's falling apart but is a remarkable work. I should take photos of some pages and post them here.

[Northernlights]

Very stormy looking  late afternoon  with  very  black cloud  behind a snow covered Ben Wyvis   A  very strong gusty South wind with significant windchill at 4.9c. Not an afternoon to go out and not keep moving. Certainly got a bit of wind burn today.

Edited February 6, 2017 by Northernlights

[Richard Taylor]

Aberdeen... Sunday... 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-38886256

It was as loud as I remember it! 

[Ross B]

1 hour ago, Richard Taylor said:

Aberdeen... Sunday... 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-38886256

It was as loud as I remember it! 

As much as I love snow... can't wait for some thunder storms!  Missed the MCS during the summer so haven't seen a good storm for a while. 

[JamesM]

9 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

OK..so as promised but late, here's a few charts and pics from the big snowcrete event of late February 2010. It's weird looking back for various reasons as you remember things differently to what the charts and photos show. I'll put the charts and photos up first and then drone on about it all later  

FAX Charts leading up to the snow (not sure if this will work):

I remember that event.  Not much at home despite being higher than Kilmacolm but going over the hills to work in Greenock there was a huge amount of snow. I remember is snowed for a couple of days before it rained like you say. Got a number of pictures saved on the old laptop but this one was of the B788 between Greenock and Kilmacolm during that event. The roads were near impassable for a time.

[Hairy Celt]

A few pages here.... Can do more maps if anyone's interested?

 

[Northernlights]

4 hours ago, Northernlights said:

Very stormy looking  late afternoon  with  very  black cloud  behind a snow covered Ben Wyvis   A  very strong gusty South wind with significant windchill at 4.9c. Not an afternoon to go out and not keep moving. Certainly got a bit of wind burn today.

Wind still howling round the house but we seemed to have missed the rain and its still 4.9c

[edo]

@Hairy Celtvery interesting read..... More maps would be lovely as I await charts showing several cm here this weekend 

[NUT]

Lovely rain/snow mix this morning. Some huge flakes falling at times

[edo]

Great call from CMD out calling the met....kids woke me up shouting it's snowing 

Still not enough yet for the sledge this winter but I remain optimistic for this spell