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Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256

Fair enough, @edo, but those values are averaged for 100km squares; coastal values are always well modified upwards. You have to live on the beach to understand the pain and suffering...

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night
  • Location: Glasgow Day - Stirling Night

Is it just me, or is the GFS just not buying into the snow "event" mid-late week ?

Certainly a smattering in the north, but nothing really centrally southwards...

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Posted
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl

Pessimistic hat on for these parts - the warnings don't kick in for here until the winds have swung round to the north Thursday and into Friday. This usually just means that the showers end up 'wishboned' and missing anywhere apart from coastal fringes. The warnings suggest the wishbone effect will kick in further south but I expect this to change as we get closer to the end of the week. Hopefully we can be lucky and catch some heavy showers before then.  

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
1 minute ago, 101_North said:

Pessimistic hat on for these parts - the warnings don't kick in for here until the winds have swung round to the north Thursday and into Friday. This usually just means that the showers end up 'wishboned' and missing anywhere apart from coastal fringes. The warnings suggest the wishbone effect will kick in further south but I expect this to change as we get closer to the end of the week. Hopefully we can be lucky and catch some heavy showers before then.  

You're fkd if you have to wait till Friday as winds will drop Thursday night, so showers will struggle to get inland and round/over hills much.

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Posted
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
  • Location: Currie, SW Edinburgh, 140m asl
7 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

You're fkd if you have to wait till Friday as winds will drop Thursday night, so showers will struggle to get inland and round/over hills much.

Yep - sadly the actual warning doesn't add much cheer - "Cold northerly winds will bring occasional snow showers through Thursday and into Friday." 

Northerlies are useless for snow here but I'll not turn my nose up at a few days of the clear, cold conditions they usually bring :)

Edited by 101_North
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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
3 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Yep - sadly the actual warning doesn't add much cheer - "Cold northerly winds will bring occasional snow showers through Thursday and into Friday." 

Northerlies are useless for snow here but I'll not turn my nose up at a few days of the clear, cold conditions they usually bring :)

I am struggling to remember the last time a scenrio like this delivered widespread snow - a few places might get a bit of a pasting but they'll be few and far between, and completely unpredictable...

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Posted
  • Location: Motherwell, Lanarkshire
  • Location: Motherwell, Lanarkshire

Why is it that the 'wishbone' effect of showers in northerly winds occurs? MWIS suggests it is something to do with the shape of the coastline, as per the map below which I have 'borrowed' from their website, but I've never been sure why the showers don't simply move north to south across the landmass (I appreciate that they sometimes do to some extent, but then get 'used up' by the mountains')

north-wind-winter.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
7 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

I am struggling to remember the last time a scenrio like this delivered widespread snow - a few places might get a bit of a pasting but they'll be few and far between, and completely unpredictable...

Yeah, I doubt it'll be widespread. Although quite a few will see snow only very few will likely see anything significant I'd expect. For me, well I don't expect to see much, and only once the flow gets more of a northerly component. NW flow is never that great for here normally because of the hills. We always live in hope though.

Anyway, after today's cloudy 10C start and a little rain it's cleared o almost wall to wall blue skies and the temps dropped to 7C.

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Posted
  • Location: Scottish Borders (SE) 150m/492ft
  • Weather Preferences: Lightning, Snow
  • Location: Scottish Borders (SE) 150m/492ft
7 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I've been looking at Google Earth working out roughly where everyone is, it's quite interesting (in my opinion :) ). Scotland is a funny shaped country all right. You're one hell of a distance from the west coast, I thought I was bad at about 100 miles but your area has further to the west coast and some bigger mountains. I'm surprised anything gets to you. I'm also surprised at how spatially unaware I am about where I live. Aberdeen is less than 100 miles away in a straight line, in my head that's "away away up north" while Greenock is roughly the same distance from my house but in my head it's "just over there", probably as I'm from near there.

I'm only 55 miles from Dundee in a straight line, this comes as a big surprise to me as it means all the Fifers are pretty near neighbours if we were all crows and definitely in terms of weather. If I draw a line 100 miles due north from my house then most of the line is over water. The first 16 miles is land then there's 56 miles of sea as I'm further east than all of Fife. Maybe a straight northerly would work here after all? I've only got last winter to go on at this house so you never know?

Northerly is a bit marginal here. We do best from North East and East.

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Posted
  • Location: Scottish Borders (SE) 150m/492ft
  • Weather Preferences: Lightning, Snow
  • Location: Scottish Borders (SE) 150m/492ft
2 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I would expect that :) I thought I was due east from you but it's north-east. I really have got myself in the wrong place.

The GFS doesn't look very clever past the weekend, it doesn't seem to be edging any way apart from SWly mush here we come :( 

I'm not too worried yet - the 09/10 incident taught us - that once there is cold and lying snow - the GFS keeps trying to bring the warm back but never quite manages it - it's always like 7 days away. Much like our normal situation where the cold is 7 days away and never gets any closer.

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
11 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I would expect that :) I thought I was due east from you but it's north-east. I really have got myself in the wrong place.

Easily done, especially as maps of the UK are very rarely properly displayed as 'north up'. If the following map was displayed correctly it'd be more obvious that Aberdeen in NE Scotland is at around the same Longitude as Manchester in NW England, Inverness is no real further East than Glasgow (both of which are further West than most of Wales) etc

uk-lat-long.jpg

 

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Posted
  • Location: South Falkirk 111m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny in summer, cold in winter.
  • Location: South Falkirk 111m asl

I was feeling slightly grumpy to be missing out on the snow potential (in Cornwall for a week) and then shock, disbelief, met office warning on my phone app for Falkirk followed by another for St Ives. I've lived down here all my life until moving to Scotland 8 years ago and only seen snow down in St Ives a handful of times. Could be an interesting drive home on Saturday :nea:



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Posted
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL

Not sure why Much of East Scotland and Dundee is under a weather warning for snow. A North Westerly and Northerly are terrible for snow prospects here. 

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Posted
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL
  • Location: Dundee - 140m ASL

Anything with a northerly component from W to N is pretty poor for these parts. A direct Westerly and South of West flow can delivery snow here but once there's a Northerly element, the showers don't normally make it this far and break up with perhaps an odd flurry here and there. With a very strong wind, an odd heavy shower can make it across but all in all, we're too far East.

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Posted
  • Location: Motherwell
  • Location: Motherwell
6 hours ago, spindrift1980 said:

Yes, sudden dark skies and a sleety shower in East Kilbride just now.

My home address is just outside the Met Office's warning area, but given the tendency of showers not to stay within strict boundary lines, I would hope that I'm still in with a chance of seeing something later this week.

I'm with you on this.  Hopeful of seeing something but so tired of this sort-of set up promising much but delivering actually nothing but mainly blue skies and quite a chill.  However, I do recall the substantial snowfall of about six years ago now, it came courtesy of a front moving directly north to south and fell over only around 4 or 5 hours - and created utter chaos.

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
4 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

I am struggling to remember the last time a scenrio like this delivered widespread snow - a few places might get a bit of a pasting but they'll be few and far between, and completely unpredictable...

Yes a NW wind and Ben Wyvis will grab them all and east of Elgin gets a lot but a direct N wind as long as it is cold enough to overcome the warming effect from the Firth works here as the showers have to rise over us to reach the Cairngorms.

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife

For Sawel and anyone else in or near Dundee the problem isn't wind direction, it's the fact I moved to Broughty Ferry last summer dragging my years of snowlessness with me from Crail. I apologise in advance.:oops:

If HC gets snow and I still see nothing I will not be happy.

:D

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Posted
  • Location: Aberdeenshire 165m ASL
  • Location: Aberdeenshire 165m ASL

Got back to the hotel after a day on the mountain and had 6 weather warnings from the MetO in my inbox. Hopefully a snow fix inbound for those in need. Travelling back on Sunday so hopefully the roads aren't to bad. The weather over here is harsh, even the ski instructors and Russians are moaning about it.

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Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
2 minutes ago, Hawesy said:

For Sawel and anyone else in or near Dundee the problem isn't wind direction, it's the fact I moved to Broughty Ferry last summer dragging my years of snowlessness with me from Crail. I apologise in advance.:oops:

If HC gets snow and I still see nothing I will not be happy.

:D

Hmm well.... I shall be over by Buckie at the critical time this week, but still right by the sea (<100m away) so I think your happiness will stay intact :) 

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Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh

I had given up hope and was ignoring you lot, but I see the BBC map has me all coloured in yellow for Thurs and Fri. I'm scared to hope!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67
  • Location: Condorrat, Cumbernauld G67

Pretty vile out there just now with prolonged rain but if it helps get a few days of colder weather at least good we get the muck out the way now and tomorrow before the main event

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Posted
  • Location: Scottish Borders (SE) 150m/492ft
  • Weather Preferences: Lightning, Snow
  • Location: Scottish Borders (SE) 150m/492ft
30 minutes ago, mardatha said:

I had given up hope and was ignoring you lot, but I see the BBC map has me all coloured in yellow for Thurs and Fri. I'm scared to hope!!!

I would be too.... it's the death knell as far as I'm concerned when the BBC forecasts snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Dunlop, East Ayrshire (133m asl)
  • Location: Dunlop, East Ayrshire (133m asl)

We can do very well here from a north westerly set up so will be disappointed not to get anything. In the past, the distribution of the showers has meant that the difference between nothing and a good covering has been be just a few miles though.

Hopefully the winter tyres will be put to the test somewhere on my run over the hill to work.

Rain fair battering down at the moment.

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