Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion

[Big Innes Madori]

Second day in a row here with foggy/misty conditions all day with visibility between 50 - 100 meters, little or no breeze and temps @ about 8 Deg C!

Hopping that we all see some of the white stuff later in the coming week and through next weekend?

Would be good if Big Grampies Innes can get oot in the Snaw with the wee grandson!

Big needin a Snaw Fix Innes

[NorthernRab]

MODEL THREAD FOR NEXT 24 HOURS

 

You've been warned. Proceed with caution. 

[NorthernRab]

15 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Just 24? 

On a rolling basis - currently at 87600 and counting. 

[asjmcguire]

The Model Thread warning has me confused.....

Does this mean the Model Thread is going to be more suicidal / aggressive than usual - or is this just a warning for people who might not have ventured in there before?

It's a bit like the red button - I am kinda tempted to pop in to the thread now.... even though I know how it will end.

Edited January 8, 2017 by asjmcguire
Apparently I can't grasp the concept of the proper usage of the word "there"

[NorthernRab]

19 minutes ago, asjmcguire said:

The Model Thread warning has me confused.....

Does this mean the Model Thread is going to be more suicidal / aggressive than usual - or is this just a warning for people who might not have ventured in there before?

It's a bit like the red button - I am kinda tempted to pop in to the thread now.... even though I know how it will end.

There was quite a critical ECM run coming out this evening - currently a bit of a stand off between the UKMO + ECMWF vs GFS. The good news is that the ECM doesn't flatten the ridging in the way the GFS does and is closer to the UKMO, meaning the colder might well survive a couple days longer at the very least. 

 

Still a few more runs required and as is always the case with single deterministic runs from any given model, caution is required until there's some degree of consensus between both the models and their respective ensembles, as well as between the models themselves! 

 

The model thread is safe(ish) again, for now!

Edited January 8, 2017 by NorthernRab

[asjmcguire]

6 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

caution is required until there's some degree of consensus between both the models and their respective ensembles, as well as between the models themselves! 

I'm not sure this has actually happened yet - all winter. Sure there might be agreement in the very short term - but there always seems to be one model or one run that ends up bringing in the cold that the rest don't agree with and then the next run it drops it and one of the other models that didn't go for a cold evolution previously decides it will have a go after all.

This might actually be the worst year the moderators have ever had to deal with in that thread - at least last year we knew all hope was lost early on....

[snowidea]

Hi all.

We're down in Cornwall at the moment (St Ives where I grew up). It's sooooooo mild down here kids were in t-shirts only when running around on the beach.

The youngest keeps asking me which country we're in.

[edo]

6 hours ago, asjmcguire said:

I'm not sure this has actually happened yet - all winter. Sure there might be agreement in the very short term - but there always seems to be one model or one run that ends up bringing in the cold that the rest don't agree with and then the next run it drops it and one of the other models that didn't go for a cold evolution previously decides it will have a go after all.

This might actually be the worst year the moderators have ever had to deal with in that thread - at least last year we knew all hope was lost early on....

Oh my you ain't seen nothing yet....this is tame...... the vanishing easterly that led to "that ECM" saw epic levels of toy throwing....

Few windups tonight trolling, and a few who think reverse psychology on an Internet weather forum is a thing that can actually work. Apart from that some great posts....everything crossed GFS fully shifts to a UKmo ECM scenario and everyone can chill.........literally

Edited January 9, 2017 by edo

[GraemeB]

^ I think it's sticking to it's guns.

Cold certainly, but not much in the way of the white stuff (IMBY possibly )

[Ross B]

RAMP! Upgrade for Strathclyde on the meto text forecasts, first warnings surely inbound this morning...

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Turning much colder. Very windy with frequent wintry showers, significant snowfall in many places and drifting over higher ground, blizzard conditions possible

Edited January 9, 2017 by Ross B

[Ravelin]

An incredibly mild 10C here at the moment, looking forward to the colder stuff later in the week. 

@CatchMyDrift I've only managed a quick scan through the models and purely going from memory, if the UKMO has backtracked then I'd also say the GFS has continued its slow move towards the euros too. ECM continues to look the best of the lot to me. I'll have a better look later if I can, and no doubt brave the model thread. 

[edo]

The ECM looks like it's sticking to guns and the GFS 00z is a mild outlier so not all lost yet for prolonging the snap but certainly a bit less likely than last night

 

Hmmmmm deep ECM FI not so good as previous....may stay put the MT till late tonight...first day back at work will be challenging enough 

Edited January 9, 2017 by edo

[mistyqueen]

Morning all! A wee bit breezy up here this morning, really looking forward to some horizontal rain over the next few days and then things really get going with horizontal sleet and temps plunging as far as 2c! Aye! A proper Skye winter.......Not!

 

[mardatha]

Am having tea and hysterics over the headlines... KILLER STORM and POLAR BLAST again. A whole 4 inches of snow. My god we'll need snow shovels to dig ourselves oot of that eh. And now you're telling me it's just in the west. I give up Think I'll go and pick on the husband to cheer meself up.

Edited January 9, 2017 by mardatha
canny type

[asjmcguire]

Just now, mardatha said:

Am having tea and hysterics over the headlines... KILLER STORM and POLAR BLAST again. A whole 4 inches of snow. My god we'll need snow shovels to dig ourselves oot fo that eh. And now you're telling me it's just in the west. I give up Think I'll go and pick on the husband to cheer meself up.

It's bad enough when the express propagates / creates it - but last night - The Scotsman joined in!! Claiming the Met Office say - and writing copious amounts of stuff from "Marco Petagna" who I have never heard of up to this point - unfortunately the Met Office have yet to respond if this is a real person working for them.

 

[Hairy Celt]

4C and a nearly clear blue sky with very little wind. Getting some work done then off out on bike!

[101_North]

Great to see that it might be cooling down in a day or 2. Although a W/NW isn't great for here in terms of snow it does certainly offer potential. All depends on the exact track of the showers and if they don't die out before they get here. Had several inches from this type of setup before, had a slight dusting on other occasions and sometimes hee-haw. Boxing Day was a similar setup if I'm not too mistaken and we had some heavy snow showers and lying snow within a 5 minutes drive of the house. Fingers crossed! Nice to have the 'potential' in the charts at least - better than the awful pish I had to endure on the way to work earlier! 

[Ross B]

Warnings out for Wed night now. 2-5cm anywhere in western parts with 20cm over hills. Looking forward to it! Central Glasgow included over rush hour on Thursday morning... 

[NUT]

Lamp post watching time coming up me thinks. Reminds me a little of watching a brand new Midsomer Murders a couple of years ago when a raging blizzard started outside. Needless to say Midsomer didn't matter

Edited January 9, 2017 by NUT

[Sunshineandshowers84]

Yes see these warnings for the midweek we shall see if anything comes by it but they seem confident for snow showers in my area.. First of the heavy showers passing now and there was rumble of Thunder with it too..

[Gogoslo]

The Meto have also just updated the warnings to cover the North east of Scotland as well.       Not too sure if the snow will come this far east or indeed it will be cold enough but we can all but hope.     

[spindrift1980]

Yes, sudden dark skies and a sleety shower in East Kilbride just now.

My home address is just outside the Met Office's warning area, but given the tendency of showers not to stay within strict boundary lines, I would hope that I'm still in with a chance of seeing something later this week.

[Snowlover2]

 All of Scotland covered now. 

[Hairy Celt]

35 minutes ago, Snowlover2 said:

 All of Scotland covered now. 

Gosh that was quick! Still can't see coastal snow settling - high dewpoints will be our enemy as usual.. (Kelty should be ok for settling snow though, would have thought, if you get any ppn at all - at 100m, you count as montane compared to my beach BBQ hut.)

Edited January 9, 2017 by Hairy Celt

[edo]

Snapshot of some dew points from GFS Wed to Fri...

Not too bad HC if everything else is ok and assuming there not modified up