Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion

[Hairy Celt]

10 hours ago, mardatha said:

So I look at the numbers then and ignore the colours. Thanks.

There's some useful stuff in the learning area here, especially some of the Netweather Guides. John Holmes writes well...

Erm, it's mild again this morning, and dry .  I can't remember the last proper wet spell we had here...

[Ravelin]

Feeling slightly more seasonal here first thing with temp at around 6C and some mist around. Broken cloud and patches of blue sky are much better than yesterdays sheet of grey but I doubt it'll last as I think we're forecast some rain again later.

Models still predicting 'unsettled' weather next week, possibly some snow, possibly quite windy as this ECM chart shows.

Then again, the GFS isn't showing it anywhere near as bad at the same time so for now it's just one to watch.

[Hairy Celt]

7 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

There's some useful stuff in the learning area here, especially some of the Netweather Guides. John Holmes writes well...

Erm, it's mild again this morning, and dry .  I can't remember the last proper wet spell we had here...

Heavy and persistent rain this afternoon...   What did I do?

[Hairy Celt]

Something of a sunrise just now...

[mardatha]

Was sitting on zero here and the cars were white. Nice clean frosty fresh air for a change.

[asjmcguire]

7 minutes ago, mardatha said:

Was sitting on zero here and the cars were white. Nice clean frosty fresh air for a change.

Just missed -1 here (-0.8) - nice to see that several days in a row have suggested a cool down for Friday on wards....(well providing it doesn't change 3 days before or something)

[NorthernRab]

Models hinting at the possibility of some kind of white Christmas for much of Scotland. Stay tuned!  

Edited December 17, 2016 by NorthernRab

[Hairy Celt]

4 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

After some initial overexcitement about next week it now looks very breezy rather than stormy for most parts. The snow risk looks fairly reasonable compared to recently but I've already broken my ramp for the wind which never came and it's going to take a while to repair.

Do you need a hand? I've got some leftover wishful thinking from last winter, and the one before. or a drop of water in a cup (melted snowflake), or a whole construction site's worth of sloppy mud waiting for Mr J Frost.

[Sunshineandshowers84]

Looks like Xmas will be Polar Maratime airmass.. With a wind will be heavy showers where I am no doubt and no snow.. If it's calm may turn out nice but still to see if any frontal rain will be a feature or not but on the run up looks like a westerly and showers..

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

The rain has cleared, 8c currently. Temperature anomaly for December 2016 now +2.8c at Leuchars (versus +2.9c in December 2015). That said it looks like there is some cooler weather on the way midweek which would bring the anomaly down. I would expect December to finish a mild month (~2c above average for most) but not as mild as last year.

[Ravelin]

11 hours ago, Sunshineandshowers84 said:

Looks like Xmas will be Polar Maratime airmass.. With a wind will be heavy showers where I am no doubt and no snow.. If it's calm may turn out nice but still to see if any frontal rain will be a feature or not but on the run up looks like a westerly and showers..

Xmas is still a week away, which means the models can and will change. Having said that, it doesn't look like we'll be in any kind of cold spell, more wet, windy and wild. Temperatures will vary as the systems run through and alternatively pull milder and colder air in a they pass. I'd not rule out a 'technical' white Xmas for some, where snow falls but I doubt many will see a 'traditional' white Xmas with snow lying. Wind may be hitting the headlines rather than snow. By mid week we should have a better idea and I'd not rule anything out utill then.  

Slight frost here yesterday morning, felt cold, a real damp cold early on but brightened up later. Today it's started around 5C.

P.s. Some in the MOD thread seriously need to take a chill pill. 

[mistyqueen]

Morning all! Murky and mild here again! I've been keeping an eye on the forecasted windiness over the festive period ( naw, nuthin' tae dae wi' sprouts! ). The forecasts change so quickly, one moment storm, next update shows wee puffs or a breeze! It would appear that we'll get some sort of breeziness on Christmas day, then I saw the chart for wind gusts on the 28th which showed possible gusts in the region of 90mph. Not good! Hope that one calms down a great deal. Start praying maybe?

 

 

 

[Hairy Celt]

It least it's mild, again, and overcast, little wind, dry... meh.

[skifreak]

A couple of photos from the West Highland Line on Tuesday of Loch Treig, now while this is part of a Hydro Electric scheme, staff on the train as well as regular travelers said they'd never seen the loch so low, particularly at this time of year. It's low enough that remains of old houses can be seen further up the loch and if you were to go to the other side from the railway you would see the old alignment of the West Highland Line which followed the shore of the Loch at it's original level.

Loch Treig is so low the water doesn't even come close to the base of the Treig Dam, so the water level is actually well below the historic loch level, such that what water was running in the area meant the unusual sight of the River Treig running SW backwards into the loch instead of the usual NE towards the River Spean! 

[Northern Strath]

Watching people flounce around or off an Internet forum because they think the chances it might snow are gone (for the 67th time in 2 weeks).... before January.... is a wonderful source of pantomime. Kudos to the Model thread for providing entertainment when the weather doesn't 

This last week has been stunningly boring weather-wise, 2 weak frosts and a harder one yesterday, dull, grey and or wet otherwise. Snow symbols now appearing in the forecast for later this week, wild and unpredictable too, you'd think it was winter or something

[Hairy Celt]

7 minutes ago, Northern Strath said:

Watching people flounce around or off an Internet forum because they think the chances it might snow are gone (for the 67th time in 2 weeks).... before January.... is a wonderful source of pantomime. Kudos to the Model thread for providing entertainment when the weather doesn't 

This last week has been stunningly boring weather-wise, 2 weak frosts and a harder one yesterday, dull, grey and or wet otherwise. Snow symbols now appearing in the forecast for later this week, wild and unpredictable too, you'd think it was winter or something

The one plus for boring winter weather is that it's good for cycling - and gardening, painting woodwork, etc... but it would be good to get some action!!!

[NUT]

Still not very exciting weather. Today was drizzly mild misty MEH! Sooner we get this front coming in from the atlantic to stir the atmosphere up the better

[Northern Strath]

2 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

The one plus for boring winter weather is that it's good for cycling - and gardening, painting woodwork, etc... but it would be good to get some action!!!

Agreed, have made some use of the conditions by pottering about, though if you get too excited because its so mild and start planning outdoor excursions etc you're soon reminded what season it is when the lights go out so early 

[asjmcguire]

While I have largely been staying away from the model thread - for the sake of sanity - I have been keeping up with the models via tweets, Gavs Vids and the odd look at the charts - So I just wanted to say - I don't believe this is the first time the GFS has toyed with the idea of several bad storms in close proximity over the festive period. 

More worrying is that with the time frame being quite close now - the models are still chopping and changing both between runs and between models. And with it not just being the odd change about how something develops - and is instead entirely different outcomes, confidence in what exactly to expect must remain quite low.

It seems like British Airways, The Train Service, Royal Mail, Amazon Drivers and Weather Models are all going on strike......

[mistyqueen]

Once again it's a Meh kind of morning. Yesterday temps stayed very steady around the 11c mark even into late evening. At least I don't have to put the heating on during the day and we only had one small fire on last night. I am watching the charts and forecasts avidly for the weekend.

Both XC and Metcheck are forecasting gusts of 80+ mph on Christmas day. Baaaaaaad! Just as we are sitting down to our Christmas dinners....... off goes the power! Nae roasters! I'll just need to make do with mashers instead! If that's the worst that happens I'll be quite happy. I may sound flippant but I'm really rather concerned, so I'd best get off and check out the battery situation and get my oil lamps cleaned, trimmed and fillled ready for use! 

[asjmcguire]

1 minute ago, mistyqueen said:

Both XC and Metcheck are forecasting gusts of 80+ mph on Christmas day. Baaaaaaad! Just as we are sitting down to our Christmas dinners....... off goes the power! Nae roasters! I'll just need to make do with mashers instead! If that's the worst that happens I'll be quite happy. I may sound flippant but I'm really rather concerned, so I'd best get off and check out the battery situation and get my oil lamps cleaned, trimmed and fillled ready for use! 

Crossing my fingers you retain power and broadband - and a roof.....

[mistyqueen]

Not so much bothered about broadband asj and we can cope with the power cuts, but the roof is worrying me a bit! After the battering from Frank last year when we lost a chunk of it and had it replaced by a builder ( the only builder we could find at that time! ) who didn't do the best job, yes, I am concerned about the roof! However, we'll just need to take it as it comes and hope the storm downgrades a bit! Wishful thinking? I find the best way to deal with it is to find a quiet corner with a bottle of something nice and some chocolate. That always helps! 

Edited December 19, 2016 by mistyqueen

[Polar Gael]

3 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

The GFS is now thinking about two chunky storms within 36 hours:

That would surely be something unusual to have a Xmas Eve storm then a Xmas Day storm? 

This is one occasion where I hope the ECM is closer to the correct solution and 'the GFS has gone off on one'. (910mb!) because if these are 'nailded on' it's going to be a far from 'stella' Christmas for many of us. 

That's enough model speak for a Monday morning. At least the atmosphere in the TOORPing thread has now settled down again somewhat after all their 62-63 snowfest fantasies were crushed once again by...the weather.

Grey & mild - a bit keech - covers it for here this morning. 7C.  

Edited December 19, 2016 by Polar Gael

[Polar Gael]

1 hour ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I'm not sure which is worse for the Xmas Eve storm, the ECM would devastate most of central Scotland:

Now at +120 so not exactly FI but a long way from being the final outcome.

True, ECM isnae Winter Wonderland weather, either. Getting awfy close to being within the more accurate timeframe now, too. 

I hope Santa's got some hefty stabilisers on that sleigh.

[Ravelin]

1 hour ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I'm not sure which is worse for the Xmas Eve storm, the ECM would devastate most of central Scotland:

Now at +120 so not exactly FI but a long way from being the final outcome.

That one seems perfectly positioned to funnel the winds through the central belt, they'll be external Xmas decorations flying everywhere. Maybe the only 'good' thing with that is it looks like the worst might be through the early hours.

A benign 5C here this morning under a sheet of cloud and just hints that there's blue sky beyond it. Dead calm too, which may be the last time this week.