Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion

[Hairy Celt]

Maxed at 9C at home, temp not dropping much at this evening. And yes, the end of this evening's GFS looks fairly er wintry.  Be good if it happened, and happened when I'm not bloody working! Nowt worse than being stuck at work as it snows, settles, hangs around for a few days, then thaws! (Actually there are lots of worse things, some that are really scary..)

[skifreak]

Some funky light at sunset / dusk over Inverness earlier, happened to be around Eden Court at just the right time! 

 

[Gogoslo]

We'll hit the dizzy heights of 12 here in Balmedie this afternoon.    Away to have a wee watch of the model watchers watch...  (another stonking sunset this evening) 

[Ravelin]

1 hour ago, Gogoslo said:

 Away to have a wee watch of the model watchers watch...

Oh god no, stay well away! Wrist slashing has reached epidemic proportions in the Mod thread this evening.

 

[asjmcguire]

14 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Oh god no, stay well away! Wrist slashing has reached epidemic proportions in the Mod thread this evening.

 

Did you happen to see if Fergie said anything? As long as Fergie isn't announcing the death of Winter I'm happy enough. ITV tonight were talking about Winter and basically said getting cold, staying cold, warming up in Spring. (Which some might point out - is pretty much what you would expect of a typical Winter)

Edited November 30, 2016 by asjmcguire

[Gogoslo]

Had a quick peek and I think some are away to jump in the bath wi the toaster !!!    appears that Matt Hugo was single handedly destroyed winter by posting he is slightly "less confident" about the second part of Dec 

[asjmcguire]

PS - am I the only one mildly amused that Scotland has several cold November days and potentially breaks some Temperature records and all anyone really says is Baremare (Braemore?) reached it's lowest temperature (not sure it broke a record though?)

England however - has a cold night - and it's all anyone can talk about......

[asjmcguire]

Just now, Gogoslo said:

Had a quick peek and I think some are away to jump in the bath wi the toaster !!!    appears that Matt Hugo was single handedly destroyed winter by posting he is slightly "less confident" about the second part of Dec 

These people are supposed to hit the Valium when it gets bad - not slash their wrists.... I think they need stronger Valium.

I suppose I better wander in with my hands over my eyes and peek through my fingers to find out what Fergie is saying about the whole thing.

[Ravelin]

38 minutes ago, asjmcguire said:

These people are supposed to hit the Valium when it gets bad - not slash their wrists.... I think they need stronger Valium.

I suppose I better wander in with my hands over my eyes and peek through my fingers to find out what Fergie is saying about the whole thing.

Fergie hasn't been on since this morning or last night. If I were him I'd stay well away as no matter what he says, good or bad, someone is going to get upset about it. The mood is just that way tonight.

[asjmcguire]

13 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

If I were him I'd stay well away

Yeah - I've noticed he does tend to stay away when it's a bit more cut throat in there. I feel sorry for the poor moderators when it gets like that.

[Sunny Leith]

There's been many brilliantly written technical forecasts in the model thread this last winter or two. I enjoy reading them, and absolutely appreciate the depth of knowledge. Unfortunately almost all of them have been predictive failures. All these factors of october siberian snow, stratospheric warming, polar vortex, mountain torque and all the rest of the unprecedented this that and the other, have resulted in basically hee-haw favourable outcomes for the UK. My only hope for December was that the open-air Edinburgh ice rinks wouldn't end up as the slushy puddles they were last year, but its looking like there be at least a few days like that in the next couple of weeks. Yeah its frustrating that so much technical insight produces so little predictive return over the timescales we'd like, but ultimately we're on the easternmost edge of a bloody big warm-ish ocean and we're stuck with the high-percentage probability of pretty mundane outcomes most of the time. Still, we can hope...

[asjmcguire]

1 minute ago, by-tor said:

There's been many brilliantly written technical forecasts in the model thread this last winter or two. I enjoy reading them, and absolutely appreciate the depth of knowledge. Unfortunately almost all of them have been predictive failures. All these factors of october siberian snow, stratospheric warming, polar vortex, mountain torque and all the rest of the unprecedented this that and the other, have resulted in basically hee-haw favourable outcomes for the UK. My only hope for December was that the open-air Edinburgh ice rinks wouldn't end up as the slushy puddles they were last year, but its looking like there be at least a few days like that in the next couple of weeks. Yeah its frustrating that so much technical insight produces so little predictive return over the timescales we'd like, but ultimately we're on the easternmost edge of a bloody big warm-ish ocean and we're stuck with the high-percentage probability of pretty mundane outcomes most of the time. Still, we can hope...

I have high hopes that the new GOES-16 satellite will significantly improve the GFS model - but I honestly don't know a huge amount about what the new satellite will mean in real terms to the likes of the GFS and possibly even the UKMO model. I hope someone like @fergieweather or @Jo Farrow might be able to provide us mere mortals with a bit more information on what benefits both the professionals and the amateurs are likely to see in the near term.

[Hawesy]

Morning all,

A mild start to winter, 9c in Broughty Ferry this morning. I've never actually looked at the model thread on here (I was originally a TWOer). I'd rather stick to the common sense insights I read on this thread coupled with a quick scan of the model output myself!

[mistyqueen]

So, the 1st of December is the first day of winter they said. They lied, I tell you , they lied! It's currently 10.2c just now. Think I'll save myself some money and switch the heating off, looks like I won't be needing it on for a while!

 

[blitzen]

The November chase was indeed very exciting given the set up and what some of us experienced temperature and frost wise.

So....   winter is now set to write its story for 2016/2017.   Will it have a happy ending I wonder? 

Follow the yellow brick road folks and just hope that it doesn't turn a muddy shade of brown!

 

7.7c here and a wee bit breezy.

 

 

Edited December 1, 2016 by Blitzen

[Hairy Celt]

Mild, dreary drizzly pish this morning.  Happy times.  Long live AGW.

[Ravelin]

1 hour ago, Blitzen said:

Huge despondency this morning and who could blame any of us.   The November chase was indeed very exciting given the set up and what some of us experienced temperature and frost wise.

So....   winter is now set to write its story for 2016/2017.   Will it have a happy ending I wonder? 

Try not to get infected by the "winter despondency bug" currently sweeping through the Mod thread. The reality is that after today's mild start to winter (around 10C here this morning, although stood outside last night in 8c but with a brisk wind I tell you it didn't feel mild) we're going to cool down again through the weekend into early next week. Odds on though that the second half of next week will be mild again, but less so than for Southern England (always remember that the wailing in the Mod thread is nearly always seen from a distinctly southern perspective and we're usually better placed for anything cold). From next weekend onwards it really is anyone's guess.

The seasonal models, Met Office etc have predicted that it's likely to be a 'front loaded' winter, and that's part of what's causing all the trouble since the models aren't showing anything spectacularly snowy. The reality is though that November will come in well below average temperature wise, and Dec is highly likely to be lower than average too. Even so, if the predictions for a 'front loaded' winter are wrong, then what's to say that they aren't also wrong about the second half of winter too. I'm not even sure they are suggesting the second half is going to be mild, just closer to average. Since Jan & Feb are generally coder on average than Dec it takes less of a deviation in temperature to get us something snowy. It amuses me that people just seem to unable to see that, they just want something snowy, and they want it now damn it.

[edo]

a model watcher watchers thread.....

I'll think I'll look at this thread again when sanity resumes says weirpig 

clearly wearpig intends to never be back 

 a chilly end to Autumn and a couple of frosty starts to winter but here come the default UK winter and all its mushy mildness . The models have done there best to give us some false hope of a cold winter but once the Atlantic breaks through its going to be a long hard road back to anything cold. enjoy what we have while it lasts folks.

winters over says our pal beefy201

This idea of a frosty start to December, then mild SW winds, then possibly cold again is very reminiscent of December 1962... Just saying!

says letitsnow who prefers the more optimistic cliche comment 

 

its not pretty in there today 

 

[blitzen]

1 hour ago, edo said:

A model watcher watchers thread

 

its not pretty in there today 

 

You're not kidding!   I dipped a toe in and got smitten.   Ravelin came to my rescue and saved me though - (I really should know better.)

Edited December 1, 2016 by Blitzen

[spindrift1980]

Has turned into a bright and pleasant day with a rather autumnal feel - all very well just maybe not many of us, including myself, are after at this time of year!...

Met Office still seems to be sticking to its guns on its 'cold first half of winter' forecast - at least, for the moment.  Suggestions seem to be that the high might not slip into the continent and that some kind of surface cold (or 'faux cold' in model thread terminology!!) with dry-ish weather might prevail for a while.  Who knows? Model thread inhabitants are clinging to this idea anyway in face of the horror charts showing south-westerlies or southerlies.

Edited December 1, 2016 by spindrift1980

[SW Saltire]

18 hours ago, by-tor said:

There's been many brilliantly written technical forecasts in the model thread this last winter or two. I enjoy reading them, and absolutely appreciate the depth of knowledge. Unfortunately almost all of them have been predictive failures. All these factors of october siberian snow, stratospheric warming, polar vortex, mountain torque and all the rest of the unprecedented this that and the other, have resulted in basically hee-haw favourable outcomes for the UK. My only hope for December was that the open-air Edinburgh ice rinks wouldn't end up as the slushy puddles they were last year, but its looking like there be at least a few days like that in the next couple of weeks. Yeah its frustrating that so much technical insight produces so little predictive return over the timescales we'd like, but ultimately we're on the easternmost edge of a bloody big warm-ish ocean and we're stuck with the high-percentage probability of pretty mundane outcomes most of the time. Still, we can hope...

That's just completely untrue.

VERY few of those updates predicted anything severe for November cold wise. 'Bluearmy' stressed that even the optimistic forecasts for late November in October would have produced 'wet rather than white' away from hills.

 

We have enjoyed a very quiet autumn overall and far more frosts than previous years. -8c back home and here is no mean feat in November.

 

The Met office have said we'll have a short period of mobility following the demise of our block starting around mid next week.

Then not long afterwards we should see blocking becoming more prevalent and this is when many of the forecasts and predictions will be on the line. What evolves from mid-December onwards will decide whether the technical talk was unfortunately incorrect or whether they nailed it.

 

It is far too soon to dismiss many of the better posts and predictions in the MOD ie GP, Tamara, Fergieweather and others as well as Netweathers own forecast.

Some of the informative posts do contain rather large words and dissapointingly, the more melodramatic posters in the MOD often misinterpret what the more informed are saying.

This is what leads to the 'winter is over' type posts.

 

I suggest a few days break and then hopefully a cold and snowy pattern will emerge for mid-month onwards. If it doesn't... Then oh well. Life will move on and we'll have another crack at it next year! 

[asjmcguire]

3 hours ago, SW Saltire said:

It is far too soon to dismiss many of the better posts and predictions in the MOD ie GP, Tamara, Fergieweather and others as well as Netweathers own forecast.

These are pretty much the posters I look out for - though I essentially understand practically nothing when Tamara posts - which is fine - after all - it's a model output discussion thread, it's just that I don't even have a vague clue what the post is actually saying.

[NUT]

Was a balmy 12 degrees according to taxi therometer I was in earlier today. Unthinkable after last week's cold

[asjmcguire]

So today we reached 10.1 which made me realise I should add max temperatures to the Winter Summary pages - so I did that today.

www.bordersweather.co.uk/wxwinter.php

It will be interesting to compare this Winter to previous Winters - on a purely temperature based scale, nothing to do whether it snowed or not.

(PS - it will start reporting 2016 summary information after midnight. because Weather Display doesn't write the dayfile until about 00:12 so on the 1st December the dayfile ends on 30 November and thus it is not winter)

Edited December 1, 2016 by asjmcguire

[asjmcguire]

So apparently we have a 2.2C /hour temperature drop - suddenly it's 4.4C...

I don't know where that came from!

Been busy with decorations today so haven't paid a lot of attention to the weather - I was under the impression it was supposed to be mild - but now I am starting to wonder - are we expecting frost?

EDIT: 4.3C