Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion

[mardatha]

One son "borrowed" the xmas lights and the other son "borrowed" our tree... about 10 years ago. In fact between them and their sister we haven't really got much left that isn't nailed to the floor.

[asjmcguire]

1 minute ago, mardatha said:

One son "borrowed" the xmas lights and the other son "borrowed" our tree... about 10 years ago. In fact between them and their sister we haven't really got much left that isn't nailed to the floor.

Wow...... well not only are you probably not seeing them again..... After 10 years..... that tree is probably an ex-tree now, a deceased tree.... 

I'd maybe drop a hint... "You know that tree that you borrowed 10 years ago and didn't give me back... Did you know B&Q are running a 25% off offer on lights and trees?"

[edo]

a model watcher watchers thread.....I love that 

[asjmcguire]

44 minutes ago, edo said:

a model watcher watchers thread.....I love that

Mods..... make it so 

[Hairy Celt]

No remarkable weather seen recently....  Cool, but not cold generally, and the lack of wind has meant the house hasn't felt as cold.

Me and Ms HC had a weekend up north. I can recommend a B&B!  Today we went up Ben Loyal, which is one of the oddest mountains, with granite tors rising above the peaty squelch.  It looked like there'd been a good bit of snow a few days ago but very little left now.  We were lucky to be at the top and getting a view as most of the day cloud loitered over the tops...

 

Edited November 29, 2016 by Hairy Celt

[Northernlights]

Clear frosty start at -1.5c

[snowidea]

Facebook tells me this was 6 years ago today. Quite a shock for a Cornish lass.

[NorthernRab]

Feeling pretty raw out there, -6.4'C with freezing fog. 

[Ravelin]

0.5C at around 7am (which was the low for the night at the time). Pretty much a complete cover of thin cloud, no wind.

[Northern Strath]

A low of -9c this morning and currently -6c. The weekend low was also -9c with very little else happening over what was quiet weekend weather wise 

Starting to get the feeling we're going to "get it" at some point in the next few weeks with snow, although the cold has been impressive it's not often we have such a quiet build up to December with the white stuff, we're due it 

[tempestwatch]

Good morning all, can anyone put me onto historic weather data that i can download into excel, preferably from the Forth valley area?

[ciel]

4 minutes ago, tempesangel delightch said:

Good morning all, can anyone put me onto historic weather data that i can download into excel, preferably from the Forth valley area?

Not sure if this site contains the specific the info you are looking for - you can navigate to different areas.

http://www.worldclimate.com/cgi-bin/grid.pl?gr=N57W002

 

 

[tempestwatch]

Thank you Ciel

 

[Hairy Celt]

6 hours ago, NorthernRab said:

Feeling pretty raw out there, -6.4'C with freezing fog. 

I was in town at about 9am and it was still pretty cold but there was no freezing fog left - or at least, not down in Merkinch through to the Longman.  Yet back home its been clear and sunny from sun up, and with my new min/max, I can now report real temps - -2.9C overnight, maxed at 3.3C, now 2.8C.  There's a Wunderground weather station at Bettyhill that I think must be indoors...

[NorthernRab]

1 hour ago, Hairy Celt said:

I was in town at about 9am and it was still pretty cold but there was no freezing fog left - or at least, not down in Merkinch through to the Longman.  Yet back home its been clear and sunny from sun up, and with my new min/max, I can now report real temps - -2.9C overnight, maxed at 3.3C, now 2.8C.  There's a Wunderground weather station at Bettyhill that I think must be indoors...

Not my neck of the woods, but I'd have thought it would hang around there the longest! All change by about 10AM, lovely clear skies! 

[Northernlights]

Started off at -2c today and frost again lay in shade all day.   Ground froze up very quickly again. Nature is preparing the base. Long sunny periods and no wind just the best for this time of year. Lots of woodcock flighting at dusk tonight even landing close to steading must be few from N Europe to be seeing so many.Thousands of geese still coming in to neighbouring stubble fields. Garden birds attacked by sparrow hawk today while emptying the feeder.       I think nature senses something brewing!!!!and so do I.

Winters in the past often started between Christmas and New Year after a dry frosty pre Christmas spell Currently 1.2c with a moderate breeze

Edited November 29, 2016 by Northernlights

[mardatha]

19 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/level-2-cold-weather-warnings-9353715

If a newspaper can get this so wrong then you wonder if anything they print is right??

So is this wrong then? Are we not getting this cold?

[Hairy Celt]

32 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/level-2-cold-weather-warnings-9353715

If a newspaper can get this so wrong then you wonder if anything they print is right??

Newspapers are just vehicles for propaganda, advertising and titillation...  if you find anything about the weather, it's probably been put together by the tea-boy.

[Cheggers]

10 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

Newspapers are just vehicles for propaganda, advertising and titillation...  if you find anything about the weather, it's probably been put together by the tea-boy.

Tea boy would probably do a better job than any forecaster with the Daily Fail etc.

Anyhoooo, this was today in 2010..

[edo]

the model watcher watchers thread.....

this just in from crewecold

All this talk of week 4....it has been stuck at week 4 for what seems like an eternity. Week 4 takes us to nearly the end of December....if this is to be a front loaded winter, that doesn't leave us much time afterwards to play with if it doesn't materialise at all by then...

rocks back and forth in chair

[edo]

the model watcher watchers thread

that inspired fergie a professional meteorologist to respond 

???? Eh?   The next 7 to poss more days are signalled as below average!! The next 2 nights look firmly set to be coldest of this autumn!! I suspect there's people so obsessed with snow forecasts that they're not seeing wood for the trees. No cold: no snow. And as I posted above, usual suspects in media aside, nobody sensible has given a snow prognosis 10+ days ahead... because the forecasting science to do so with any reliability doesn't exist. 

Honestly, compared to some recent winters(!), I fail to see anything in longer range models to make cold lovers moan. 

step away from the computer crewecold

 

ironically the thread is alive tonight with the long term models all singing from the same hymn sheet and baby steps from the ECM....winter very much still shaping up to be decent...time will tell 

 

[asjmcguire]

For the love of god someone make a model watchers watchers thread - that right there from @edo is exactly the reason it needs to exist!

(PS - we have been there before, all singing from the same song sheet.... it's what happens when the 0Z or 12z runs and decides it's going to be an Indian summer all Winter and the CFS decides it will snow in July.... that's when all hell breaks loose!

Despite the number of times the models do this - it's like people become invested in every run and believe that what the model shows at the very moment is cast in stone and will not change... even though it will... the next time the model runs

)

Edited November 29, 2016 by asjmcguire
Apparently can't spell....

[asjmcguire]

@CatchMyDrift I could write a script that ignores 95% of the posts and just analyses the tone of probably 10 peoples posts to get an idea of whether it is in general looking good for cold or not so good. Otherwise - I could probably just count the number of times valium or prozac is mentioned. I could probably also count how many times "winter is over" is said - and link that to a reverse temperature scale - ie the more often it is posted, the colder it is going to be.

On Topic:

Yesterday we ended with an average temperature of 1.5C and we reached -4.2C overnight. It is currently -1.3C outside and gradually getting warmer.

[snowidea]

Morning. A positively balmy 3 degrees here on the station run this morning but feeling pleasantly crisp.

 

[Ravelin]

9 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

At best it'll be like it was last week, frosty overnight and cold during the day with some sun. Overall it looks cool but not cold and fairly dry but quite cloudy at times for the next week. 

And its got absolutely f all to do with the "Polar Vortex" despite what the idiot that wrote the article claims. All the snowy pictures in it too, it's going to be cold and dry, chances of snow in the next week are virtually nil. 

8 hours ago, edo said:

Ironically the thread is alive tonight with the long term models all singing from the same hymn sheet and baby steps from the ECM....winter very much still shaping up to be decent...time will tell 

Alive with collective hysteria you mean. OK, so a few of the more knowledgeable contributors have made promising comments about mid Dec onwards but it's resulted on total overreaction as usual. I swear if there's no snow by the end of Dec that some people will be throwing themselves off tall buildings on New Years Eve. 

Oh, -3C here already. 

The above to be read in the context that I typed it out at about 11:30pm last night and was sure I'd hit 'submit', but obviously not. 

GFS 0z run this morning looks awful as Catch posted above, which makes 2 runs in a row the GFS blasts away the high around day 8. Which illustrates the point I was trying to make, a rather futile attempt, in the model thread last night that no way was it nailed on to stay on the scene as long as the models were showing. ECM still has it out to day 10 though so we'll see. Everything just looking a tad 'boring' model wise to me at the moment. 

Edit: Now that I've checked, current temp of -3.9C and overnight low of -4.7C. It's been quite an impressive spell of frosts over the last week or two. 

Edited November 29, 2016 by Ravelin