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7 minutes ago, Winter Cold said:

How much do we trust the GFS though? Paul Hudson on Look North tonight said he was pretty confident of a good spell of snow for Yorkshire on Fri.

We're nearly 24 hours away now, surely it wont change that much? If we lose this and its 3 misses in 2 weeks then im giving up!!

Paul will likely be using the 12z data, its already fine margins on the 12z and 18z is an example of what could go wrong, its not like we already have very cold air over us like many frontal events we had 2012/13. We are relying on that trough becoming elongated keeping the cold uppers on its northern flank .

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A friend's snowman has started to limbo all by itself.

Some pics from Todmorden

Guys - hope your doing well & enjoying the snow Good luck to all tonight !!!

Posted Images

31 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Paul will likely be using the 12z data, its already fine margins on the 12z and 18z is an example of what could go wrong, its not like we already have very cold air over us like many frontal events we had 2012/13. We are relying on that trough becoming elongated keeping the cold uppers on its northern flank .

I'm not liking the look of the GFS 18z.  The low is too round, no longer elongated, and the uppers are much warmer in the South of the region.  Let's hope this is just a pub run special and we see a reversal of trend on the overnight and tomorrow morning runs.

Edited by SouthYorks
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10 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

I'm not liking the look of the GFS 18z.  The low is too round, no longer elongated, and the uppers are much warmer in the South of the region.  Let's hope this is just a pub run special and we see a reversal of trend on the overnight and tomorrow morning runs.

Yes id noticed the changes as early as 24hrs on the 18z run with that incoming low. The one time we need southern adjustments, trust our luck no to get it. (maybe)

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6 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

Yes id noticed the changes as early as 24hrs on the 18z run with that incoming low. The one time we need southern adjustments, trust our luck no to get it. (maybe)

Tell me about it,this is just one run though so should we discount it?,the gfs is known to overblow lows as we know so my money is that it will be a shallower feature and more elongated so there will be southerly corrections,we hope:D

Edited by Allseasons-si
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22 minutes ago, sausage said:

whys its so quiet n boring on here. we cud be on the verge of a special morning!! surely its our turn?!!

After the Amber warning last time what was removed a few hours later? I think everyone is taking a back seat for now!!!

Does look good tho so kinda getting excited. Fingers crossed.

Edited by Love Snow
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Well, sorry to say all the models and the Fax charts now have the low about 200 miles further North compared to yesterdays 12z which is the trend the 18z started.  The speed of travel West to East is much quicker and the precipitation looks lighter. As a consequence Barnsley has gone from 9 hours of snow to 3 hours and then sleet on both BBC and Meto websites!  North Yorkshire still does better than South, but not nearly as good as shown by the 12z.  Let's see what the 6z say, but I think we'll probably see further downgrades, as the trend is not our friend!

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38 minutes ago, Love Snow said:

Certainly a downgrade this Morning.

Still looks good to me for North Yorkshire at least. Considerable disagreement over timing of arrival of the sleet/snow.

If it’s a little later in the day this may reduce chances of lying snow, although the ground should be well frozen by the end of tonight.

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37 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

Still looks good to me for North Yorkshire at least. Considerable disagreement over timing of arrival of the sleet/snow.

If it’s a little later in the day this may reduce chances of lying snow, although the ground should be well frozen by the end of tonight.

Yes, further North and East still a longer spell of snow before turning to sleet.

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7 minutes ago, Craigers said:

To me it's an upgrade with it arriving much earlier so more settling snow.

Screenshot_20171228-091238.thumb.png.b9a72fc257559d0ec2ab65c3518680dd.png

I'm beginning to doubt the reliability of the BBC and Meto graphics.  They have now changed 4 times since around 6.30 this morning, switching between longer periods of heavy snow to light sleet for Barnsley!  Seems odd when they are probably still working off one set of data from the 0z.  Time of course will tell...

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6 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

I'm beginning to doubt the reliability of the BBC and Meto graphics.  They have now changed 4 times since around 6.30 this morning, switching between longer periods of heavy snow to light sleet for Barnsley!  Seems odd when they are probably still working off one set of data from the 0z.  Time of course will tell...

WRF NMM 2Km backs this up. Looks further south.

Screenshot_20171228-092720.thumb.png.2aac330bb9fc4921582acd55ff2759c6.png

Edited by Craigers
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