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Light snow in Bempton now from a line of showers moving down the north Sea. Not settling but a bitterly cold strong northerly wind temp +2 but feels much colder

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A friend's snowman has started to limbo all by itself.

Some pics from Todmorden

Guys - hope your doing well & enjoying the snow Good luck to all tonight !!!

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18 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

 It looks increasingly likely that the front will stall over Northern England, so I'd expect the warning area to increase to cover the whole of Yorkshire. 

12z precipitation looks a lot heavier than shown on 6z, but low looks slightly further North although progress across the country looks slower.  Suspect this will be a snow to rain event, particularly South Yorkshire at lower levels.

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1 minute ago, SouthYorks said:

12z precipitation looks a lot heavier than shown on 6z, but low looks slightly further North although progress across the country looks slower.  Suspect this will be a snow to rain event, particularly South Yorkshire at lower levels.

I suspect there'll be a correction south to cover the whole of Yorkshire but we'll see. 

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4 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

I suspect there'll be a correction south to cover the whole of Yorkshire but we'll see. 

You may well be right, as that has been the pattern with GFS with the previous 2 systems (aka 'Slidergate') ?

It will be interesting to see where the ECM has the low as it has been closer to the track on each occasion.

Edited by SouthYorks
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1 hour ago, Cheese Rice said:

 It looks increasingly likely that the front will stall over Northern England, so I'd expect the warning area to increase to cover the whole of Yorkshire. 

Still looking at a stall? 

Will this slow down the warming trend? Thus snowing for longer?

Edited by James Oliver
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1 hour ago, SouthYorks said:

You may well be right, as that has been the pattern with GFS with the previous 2 systems (aka 'Slidergate') ?

It will be interesting to see where the ECM has the low as it has been closer to the track on each occasion.

Fax chart has the low further South, with it exiting around the Wash, which would put all of Yorkshire on the North side of the low so should mean snow for longer before the less cold air moves in to turn the snow to rain.

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6 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

Fax chart has the low further South, with it exiting around the Wash, which would put all of Yorkshire on the North side of the low so should mean snow for longer before the less cold air moves in to turn the snow to rain.

BBC app is now going for 7-6pm snow for most locations. Following that slowing trend.

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11 minutes ago, James Oliver said:

BBC app is now going for 7-6pm snow for most locations. Following that slowing trend.

The trend does currently seem to be for a longer period of snow for Yorkshire.  Snow was originally shown for Friday on Christmas day, but only light and for a couple of hours.  Now showing heavy and for 6-7 hours, starting in South Yorkshire between 6 and 9am.  Will be interesting to watch to see how this develops over the next 48 hours. It will be disappointing if this turns into another damp squib after 2 misses so far this month!

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Well let’s see how this one shapes up in the next 24-36 hours for our region. But Friday morning at the moment does look like a fun commute to work for those of us who are back to it now. But by Saturday whatever does settle won’t stay around for long with temps upto 10c Saturday.

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23 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well let’s see how this one shapes up in the next 24-36 hours for our region. But Friday morning at the moment does look like a fun commute to work for those of us who are back to it now. But by Saturday whatever does settle won’t stay around for long with temps upto 10c Saturday.

Yep, it's definitely looking that way.  It will just be great to see settling snow though after the disappointments of earlier events this month.

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1 minute ago, LeeSnow84 said:

Can’t edit profile on mobile I’m in Barnsley 96m above sea level

 

friday looks interesting 

07EFFAD7-7BC1-49FF-9243-1D7DB38DFA44.jpeg

Literally just posted that on FB and 18z comes along and its a big downgrade. Lets hope its wrong.

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I like the look of the latest bbc forecast for Friday:)

Untitled.thumb.png.001147d94f8761b9501fa28db46d0025.png

Now,like others have said,we could be in for a good spell of snow if we could just squeeze this further south a tad and i reckon that it would following the last two attemps and we would be in the colder 850's for longer if it is forced further south,lets have a gander at the latest models on where we would be for Friday at this juncture(subject to change a bit obviousley)

WRF NMM 5km 12z and 850's temps

nmmuk-1-41-0.png?27-18nmmuk-1-46-0.png?27-18nmmuk-1-48-0.png?27-18

nmmuk-16-41-0.png?27-18nmmuk-16-46-0.png?27-18nmmuk-16-48-0.png?27-18

ARPEGE

is a bit slower in timing but has it a little futher south than the WRF NMM with it stalling and not reaching Scotland but no low tracking across Yorkshire:cc_confused:

arpegeuk-1-41-0.png?27-17arpegeuk-1-46-0.png?27-17arpegeuk-1-48-0.png?27-17

arpegeuk-16-42-0.png?27-17arpegeuk-16-45-0.png?27-17arpegeuk-16-48-0.png?27-17

GFS 0.25° HR

very similar to timings as the WRF NMM bit is marginal with the 850's and has a warm sector in the low

42-779UK.GIF?27-1245-779UK.GIF?27-1248-779UK.GIF?27-12

42-7UK.GIF?27-1245-7UK.GIF?27-1248-7UK.GIF?27-12

HIRLAM 0.1°

has the ppn pushing through quicker and has no low tracking through yorkshire

hirlamuk-1-41-0.png?27-17hirlamuk-1-44-0.png?27-17hirlamuk-1-48-0.png?27-17

hirlamuk-16-42-0.png?27-17hirlamuk-16-45-0.png?27-17hirlamuk-16-48-0.png?27-17

icon has the ppn further north so not going to bother posting the charts:laugh:

but the 18z is just coming out and is further south

iconeu_uk1-1-39-0.png?27-22iconeu_uk1-1-41-0.png?27-22iconeu_uk1-1-43-0.png?27-22

iconeu_uk1-16-39-0.png?27-22iconeu_uk1-16-41-0.png?27-22iconeu_uk1-16-45-0.png?27-22

 

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6 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

 

Literally just posted that on FB and 18z comes along and its a big downgrade. Lets hope its wrong.

Well that would be great - we are finally in a good location but instead of snow we get rain and sleet. :laugh:

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How much do we trust the GFS though? Paul Hudson on Look North tonight said he was pretty confident of a good spell of snow for Yorkshire on Fri.

We're nearly 24 hours away now, surely it wont change that much? If we lose this and its 3 misses in 2 weeks then im giving up!!

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