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i REALLY REALLY HOPE THE MODELS dont push it all south on thursday night! again. its been consistant with it over us more especially overnight gfs ecm but as good as this mornings gfs it has slightly corrected southwards please dont continue hence no met office warni gs yet which i was hoping for.! midlands can have theirs tomorw, let us have ours thirs night please! PLEASE! 

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Just now, sausage said:

i REALLY REALLY HOPE THE MODELS dont push it all south on thursday night! again. its been consistant with it over us more especially overnight gfs ecm but as good as this mornings gfs it has slightly corrected southwards please dont continue hence no met office warni gs yet which i was hoping for.! midlands can have theirs tomorw, let us have ours thirs night please! PLEASE! 

Prepare for the worse, it wont hurt as bad then 😂

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Yeah, don't expect it to happen.

I'm expecting and checking nothing till the NW app starts beeping snow alerts. Makes the suprise more special if there's juicy PPN. 

Edited by Stelmer
Update

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Another flop by the looks of it, Tuesday is unlikely to deliver in Central areas due to the rain shadow. 

Thursday is likely to miss the whole of Yorkshire now as well. 

At this rate we could be looking at a whole winter without lying snow. 

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Meto UKV model for Tuesday showing the same as the EURO4, obvious rain shadow east of the pennines. 

 

 

_20190128_135401.JPG

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1 minute ago, Cheese Rice said:

Another flop by the looks of it, Tuesday is unlikely to deliver in Central areas due to the rain shadow. 

Thursday is likely to miss the whole of Yorkshire now as well. 

At this rate we could be looking at a whole winter without lying snow. 

why whats happened about thurs?! overnight runs looked good for here!! bet bloudy not miss us again!!

latest local on bbc showed snow across our region (albeit thy have crap graphics) but she said snow quickly to low levels and mentioned lots of snow into west tonight before tmz. 

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Look north have showers for West Yorkshire and Western parts of North Yorkshire some this evening and overnight giving a dusting Followed by a more persistent band of snow reaching the more western parts by around Noon giving around 4-5 hours of snow as it moves west to east how heavy and how much will be down to the day and higher routes will always do better when it comes to depth. Still lots of change possible as the low hasn’t developed yet so the exact track still isn’t nailed but the current run shows our entire region could see at least a few CMs almost anywhere. Looking forward to this evening for a bit of lamppost and radar watching as the showers roll in and look forward to tomorrow afternoon if it stays the course as we will have daylight snow. 

Enjoy the ride everyone but most importantly stay safe on the roads😁👍

Edited by Yorkshirepudding

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1 minute ago, sausage said:

why whats happened about thurs?! overnight runs looked good for here!! bet bloudy not miss us again!!

latest local on bbc showed snow across our region (albeit thy have crap graphics) but she said snow quickly to low levels and mentioned lots of snow into west tonight before tmz. 

they didnt go further than tomorow! plz gfs down dwngrade us for thurs! i will never forgive you and the same applies for ecm!! just at least 5cm on thurs night is all i ask. is that too much! that front that brings it is moving north, we just need it to stay intact!!

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2 minutes ago, Yorkshirepudding said:

Look north have showers for West Yorkshire and Western parts of North Yorkshire some  this evening and overnight giving a dusting Followed by a more persistent band of snow reaching the more western parts by around Noon giving around 4-5 hours of snow as it moves west to east how heavy and how much will be down to the day and higher routes will always do better when it comes to depth. Still lots of change possible as the low hasn’t developed yet so the exact track still isn’t nailed but the current run shows our entire region could see at least a few CMs almost anywhere. Looking forward to this evening for a bit of lamppost and radar watching as the showers roll in and look forward to tomorrow afternoon if it stays the course as we will have daylight snow. 

Enjoy the ride everyone but most importantly stay safe on the roads😁👍

im quietly hoping thurs night is our time! it is according to overnighters! but worrysome that meto n bbc are bow being quiet on it because this morning the bbc were saying snow western n northern areas thurs nights but looking at meto website it has heavy snow midlands, i presume moving north. it dam well better be!!

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have this horrid feeling of gfs letting us dwn again tonight n the southerners loving it. ive avoided that thread since yesterday afternoon! n will continue to do so. poor moderation by the chiefs!

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30 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

Another flop by the looks of it, Tuesday is unlikely to deliver in Central areas due to the rain shadow. 

Thursday is likely to miss the whole of Yorkshire now as well. 

At this rate we could be looking at a whole winter without lying snow. 

Jury's well and truly still out on that call

Thursdays

gfs-2-90.png

90-574UK.gif

hirlamuk-1-35-0.pngTuesday

Edited by winterof79

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33 minutes ago, sausage said:

sometimes i think im talking to myself on here lol lmao lofl lmfao hehe.

You're such a Sausage!!!🏃‍♂️🏃‍♂️

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Might want to keep an eye on the radar tonight of you on the western edges of the region / high Pennines, as heavy showers are looking possible. Snow showers are likely to stay that way for the next few days irrespective of the front(s) tomorrow.


Met Office web site now has us listing as Heavy Snow from 9pm tonight, due to this shower activity. Won't get much into the region but they usually make it to Bradford.

Edited by cowdog

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25 minutes ago, cowdog said:

Might want to keep an eye on the radar tonight of you on the western edges of the region / high Pennines, as heavy showers are looking possible. Snow showers are likely to stay that way for the next few days irrespective of the front(s) tomorrow.


Met Office web site now has us listing as Heavy Snow from 9pm tonight, due to this shower activity. Won't get much into the region but they usually make it to Bradford.

It appears to be being repelled by what, at first, seems to be a weak ridge of high pressure. There may well be a factor arriving (at last) from the SSW downwelling making that possible. GFS just tries to send more and more lows through to little effect, what we really want to see is one of them disrupt south and undercut leading to the fabled Scandi High.

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6 hours ago, 4wd said:

Nice pub picture from Lastingham (second image in gallery)
It's probably not this winter though.
Lastingham is a serious frost hollow, they could do with more insulation ...

https://www.gazetteherald.co.uk/news/17365360.blacksmiths-arms-in-lastingham-nominated-for-countryside-alliance-awards/

Brilliant pub with lovely food and great beer.  Been many times over the years as we stay in Hutton Le Hole for a week every year.  In fact we will be there from Saturday and will no doubt be going to the Blacksmiths during the week.  Hoping to see some snow whilst up there, although last year has something to live up to as we saw falling snow every day we were there in Feb 18! 

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6 hours ago, 4wd said:

Nice pub picture from Lastingham (second image in gallery)
It's probably not this winter though.
Lastingham is a serious frost hollow, they could do with more insulation ...

https://www.gazetteherald.co.uk/news/17365360.blacksmiths-arms-in-lastingham-nominated-for-countryside-alliance-awards/

Reckon its worth a weather station there?

Got the Moors fairly covered now...Rosedale, Chop Gate, Farndale etc RE: frost hollows

Always scoping out potential sites though.

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Tomorrow now doesn't look good. It was marginal before but even more tilted towards rain event for most on the 12oz. Looks like we will have to wait until Thursday too see if we get a bit of snow.

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Here's the 12z GFS snow depths for tomorrows event.

42-780UK.GIF?28-12

Whilst these aren't the most reliable charts, I do find they don't exaggerate snow amounts as much as some of the high res modes ie: Hirlam, NMM, ICON etc.

Strange that it shows the North York Moors getting the highest snow amounts, at odds with the UKV showing it dissipating somewhat as the front crosses the Pennines.

Here's a few more precip charts for tomorrow.

30-779UK.GIF?28-12nmm_uk1-1-33-2.png?28-12

Thursday night is currently looking good, with widespread snow to all levels across the region, however with this being some 72 hours away changes may occur for the good or the worse.

Could we see the coldest night of the winter across the snowfields early Wednesday?

Coldest we've seen round here is -7.5c last week in a local frost hollow.

42-778UK.GIF?28-12

An interesting week nonetheless and I hope we all see some snow, especially @The PIT

 

 

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10 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Tomorrow now doesn't look good. It was marginal before but even more tilted towards rain event for most on the 12oz. Looks like we will have to wait until Thursday too see if we get a bit of snow.

If we are lucky we might get a couple of hours tomorrow.  12z Icon continues to show a narrow band of snow. 

Thursday als looks ok and then Saturday the Icon shows a returning front moving East to West which may give some snow over the higher parts in the West of the region.

 

46200A35-50ED-4946-BDA4-D03C9B1710E1.png

66EC378C-6504-4698-9E74-DF706227DA45.png

7969F3F9-BB72-4D7C-9FE3-89BDF722157D.png

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I really can't wait for it to snow tomorrow so some people in here will have egg on there faces!!

 

Doom & Gloom go move on an island somewhere! ....... 

Edited by LeeSnowFan

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I'm still hopeful tomorrow. Certainly cold out there now and snow supportive. Current dew point below -2!

Meto website shows rain to heavy snow as per warning. I wouldn't worry too much if it starts as rain, we just need to get some intensity really.

Thursday also looking good, here's hoping we do get some snow this week ❄️

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