Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

[Decemberof2010]

17 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I think because most are brainwashed by the main cold/model threads constant harping on about the chance of snow in south east and southern england.. Making it seem like there the only areas at risk of snow.

The way I see it we have a chance of snow tuesday night into wednesday, non disruptive but would be nice to get a bit of a covering. 

Our main chance comes thursday night into friday I believe with potentially disruptive snow for us guys. 

Yes exactly this. There’s a running commentary every run focused only on the south. Hardly a mention about areas further north. No problem with the bias according to a mod last night. Thanks for your insight btw

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

Tuesday not looking to great for us at the moment, plenty of time for adjustments of course but the precip charts currently show the main snowfall either West or South East of us 

I'm waiting for HIRLAM and Euro4 to come into range before passing judgement on Tuesday's system.

[sausage]

ecm rules out tues. first chance gone. second one!? 

gfs will correct as per.

[sausage]

ecm 96 hold more hope?/! surely.

[sausage]

nope seems not then. by quietness.

[The PIT]

Not convinced by Tuesday so wouldn't surprised if it was forgotten by tomorrow morning.

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Yes exactly this. There’s a running commentary every run focused only on the south. Hardly a mention about areas further north. No problem with the bias according to a mod last night. 

The mods won't act because most of the posters are southerners. Chiono has said as much by basically saying 'get over it'  ECM showing milder uppers for the far south later next week and of course you've got one liners bemoaning cold rain in their back yards. Those posts will not get deleted.

[Cold Winter]

27 minutes ago, sausage said:

ecm rules out tues. first chance gone. second one!? 

gfs will correct as per.

Does it?! The low + main area of precipitation looks to stay to the south of the UK but it still suggests a band of sleet/snow running NW to SE.

Blue is snow, orange is sleet. It does look pretty narrow and short-lived but I wouldn't say Tuesday is a complete write off..... at least yet.

Anyway, higher resolution short range models will be coming into play soon.

Edited January 27, 2019 by Cold Winter

[sausage]

love peeps from our thread talking about up here n then haha n likes when thy mention rain dwn there! keep it going. we shud all go on there n start talking about up here

[Barking_Mad]

Going to be bitterly cold next week with the wind chill. MetO showing daytime temps in my part of Leeds barely above freezing and - 6c early doors with the windchill. 

Edited January 27, 2019 by Barking_Mad

[Cheese Rice]

I'm a bit suspicious about Thursday coming off I think there'll be a big correction south but we'll see. Tuesday seems more likely even if its only an hour or two of snow. 

Edited January 27, 2019 by Cheese Rice

[Guest]

Just now, Cheese Rice said:

I'm a bit suspicious about Thursday coming off I think there'll be a big correction south but we'll see 

Perhaps. But that trend southwards could well enable better height rises to the north. Short-term pain, long-term gain?

[Cheese Rice]

Just now, Why said:

Perhaps. But that trend southwards could well enable better height rises to the north. Short-term pain, long-term gain?

Considering the disaster of this winter so far I wouldn't be taking in chances at this stage. 

[Guest]

Just now, Cheese Rice said:

Considering the disaster of this winter so far I wouldn't be taking in chances at this stage. 

Hey, this is one of the best virtual winters we've ever had 

[Harsh Climate]

Latest hirlam looks good 

All that moving south east

Edited January 27, 2019 by Harsh Climate

[SouthYorks]

15 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

I'm a bit suspicious about Thursday coming off I think there'll be a big correction south but we'll see. Tuesday seems more likely even if its only an hour or two of snow. 

Which pretty much reflects what was indicated on the Countryfile forecast....

Edited January 27, 2019 by SouthYorks
Spelling

[Cheese Rice]

Haven't seen the country file forecast but doesn't surprise me tbh. I think it first started with the icon positioning of the low a bit too far south. 

We'll see. 

[Cheese Rice]

ECM does have the front passing through us on Thursday but realistically I'd expect 2-5cm from that as it decays significantly across Yorkshire. 

Edited January 27, 2019 by Cheese Rice

[joggs]

30 minutes ago, Why said:

Perhaps. But that trend southwards could well enable better height rises to the north. Short-term pain, long-term gain?

Had no long term gain this winter

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, joggs said:

Had no long term gain this winter

You never know, we could have a potent easterly by May 

3 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

ECM does have the front passing through us on Thursday but realistically I'd expect 2-5cm from that as it decays significantly across Yorkshire. 

ICON has consistently been decaying Thursday's feature as it tracks east. We will see I guess. At this point I'd happily take 2-5cms given the slim pickings so far this winter.

[sausage]

is the south really going to get pummelled whilst we get didley squat all squat! if we miss out this week im afraid its wait until next winter because apart from the metos shockingly wrong forecast the longer range looks naff! feb sun growing in strength n march doesnt cut it unless you have something special but no doubt tgat will all get pushed into the midlands just like last years sliders.

[Jeremy Shockey]

9 minutes ago, sausage said:

is the south really going to get pummelled whilst we get didley squat all squat! 

snow envy is painful isnt it ! ( i suffer from it very badly , especially when the South gets buried and we get nothing ...... i feel your pain )

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, sausage said:

is the south really going to get pummelled whilst we get didley squat all squat! if we miss out this week im afraid its wait until next winter because apart from the metos shockingly wrong forecast the longer range looks naff! feb sun growing in strength n march doesnt cut it unless you have something special but no doubt tgat will all get pushed into the midlands just like last years sliders.

Was last year that bad for your location?

Anyway, it's quite marginal for the south next week. For all our moaning up here about whether we catch a flake or two, at least we'll have the cold to do so. Longer term of course it is uncertain but you can't ignore the trend for HLB and as you say the Met Office long-ranger still looks good. I wouldn't write any forecast that hasn't verified off.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Regardless of the track of the lows this coming week I don't see it being feasible our region will stay dry.

A setup like this which is really quite unsettled and unstable is likely to create troughs etc which may pop up at short notice.  Not snowmageddon by any means but as long as we stay on the cold side of the jet then we might have a couple of nice surprises this week?

Re the North vs South thing being a Southerner living Oop Norf I don't really get the upset on either side.  If those annoying Southerners want to talk about their area live and let live I say.  There is nothing stopping us piling into the model thread mob handed and start lauding up Yorkshire's snow chances this week just to ruffle a few feathers!  

What does annoy me though is if people refer to a run as being good or bad for snow when it is obvious they are talking about darn sarf and not the UK as a whole!

All in all a cold and hopefully white week to come for God's own county.  I still think February will be a cracking month for cold and snow as well despite some of the pessimism flying about.

Eyes down for the pub runs!  

[sausage]

2 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Regardless of the track of the lows this coming week I don't see it being feasible our region will stay dry.

A setup like this which is really quite unsettled and unstable is likely to create troughs etc which may pop up at short notice.  Not snowmageddon by any means but as long as we stay on the cold side of the jet then we might have a couple of nice surprises this week?

Re the North vs South thing being a Southerner living Oop Norf I don't really get the upset on either side.  If those annoying Southerners want to talk about their area live and let live I say.  There is nothing stopping us piling into the model thread mob handed and start lauding up Yorkshire's snow chances this week just to ruffle a few feathers!  

What does annoy me though is if people refer to a run as being good or bad for snow when it is obvious they are talking about darn sarf and not the UK as a whole!

All in all a cold and hopefully white week to come for God's own county.  I still think February will be a cracking month for cold and snow as well despite some of the pessimism flying about.

Eyes down for the pub runs!  

great post!!