Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
A.J

Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

Recommended Posts

Hard to tell if its the cold hunt thread of the south regional thread at the moment! ...... so confusing for newbies 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

Hard to tell if its the cold hunt thread of the south regional thread at the moment! ...... so confusing for newbies 

I agree. Really appreciate those who are able to decipher what's going on and feedback to this group.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, LeeSnowFan said:

Hard to tell if its the cold hunt thread of the south regional thread at the moment! ...... so confusing for newbies 

Annoying isn't it. Really grates me tbh but don't stop me going in there lol. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All eyes on Tomorrow and will the showers turn to Snow? Unlikely away from the North Yorks moors and peak district but you never know. Main feature the winds me thinks. Glad I've got a new backdoor as the kitchen wood be getting flooded. The main feature tomorrow is the wind which may cause damage and some good seas to watch down the coast.  Then nothing much in pipeline away from the peak district and moors until Thursday which maybe the first Snow event of the winter. This all depends on the track of the low. This could the last real shot of some organized snow for a while if the trend to milder conditions continues.

Local forecast has back tracked from Heavy snow from this morning. So who knows it maybe another bust.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Plenty of talk about a channel low, are we likely to benefit at all from this?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
43 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

Very quiet in here thoughts on next week?? 

I summed it up earlier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, LeeSnowFan said:

Hard to tell if its the cold hunt thread of the south regional thread at the moment! ...... so confusing for newbies 

Happens every year unfortunately. Model thread is tedious.

Edited by cheese

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thursday looks interesting but no getting carried away just yet seen this fail so many times.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Minus 0.3 wind chill here and it’s 2.0c outside interesting how much the Temperatures been so up and down this Month on a Morning. Friday Morning was 9.c at this time for example. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2C the low today which is still above average. Anyways today looks a bust so it's over to the wind. Not bad at the moment though.

Over to Thursday into Friday. Snow or bust again ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, LeeSnowFan said:

Very quiet in here thoughts on next week?? 

Impossible to pin any detail on this week IMO.  It will be cold, windy and unsettled with the possibility of some snow most likely in the form of showers.

There is the possibility of some more persistent snow from the low pushing through later on Thursday depending on its track so dare I say it the most 'wintry' week of Winter so far (not that that is saying much!)  🤣

Still confident we should see some height rises to our North in early February though so who knows we may even get a fabled Easterly before Winter is out!  😮

Edited by Kentish Snowman

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Chris Fawkes‏ @_chrisfawkes 5m5 minutes ago

 

Some #snow still looks likely Tue 29th/Wed 30th from low to south of UK but also from troughs coming from northwest. Snow amounts sensitive to low track (could change a bit) therefore balance between rain & snow. Some disruption possible

wix.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is the Meto outlook for Yorkshire days 3 to 5.  Not often you see them admit high uncertainty at such short range.....

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday: Relatively high uncertainty for the period. Remaining cold throughout, with severe overnight frosts. Probably mostly fine Tuesday and Wednesday, perhaps with overnight snow. Potentially unsettled Thursday with more widespread snow. Updated: 00:38 on Sun 27 Jan 2019 GMT

It shows even the experts are struggling to pin down the detail for this week but interestingly no mention of the dreaded rain, sleet or wintry showers.....or even worse snow on the hills.....yet!

So a positive outlook at face value as things stand for this week (the best so far this Winter) if you are of a cold and snowy persuasion.

Edited by Kentish Snowman

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, ChezWeather said:

Plenty of talk about a channel low, are we likely to benefit at all from this?

Very Likely it’s all about the track it takes, Too far south (South France for example) may only bring the tips of the south into the mix if at all, Too far north the question will be does it pull down the cold enough uppers so could be to marginal and only offer accumulations on higher routes and the southerners will be throwing the toys out, But if it tracks the channel as shown on many runs even a few miles north or south put our region well into the mix for seeing snow for Tuesday into Wednesday how much will be down to the day and the exact track then I think it will be followed by snow showers for some then the potential of another low coming through on Thursday which in my opinion could be the more significant event that us coldies are hoping for especially if we already have some lying snow from the previous 36 hours. Exciting times to be watching models hoping and praying that everything falls into line but we all know the smallest changes in the atmosphere can have big impacts down here.. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, The PIT said:

2C the low today which is still above average. Anyways today looks a bust so it's over to the wind. Not bad at the moment though.

Over to Thursday into Friday. Snow or bust again ?

Looks that way will most likely be bust so not getting my hopes up.

Edited by Love Snow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Personally I reckon Thursday won't happen, or won't be any significance.

Monday night / Tuesday even though it is going low it seems that it has a secondary front to its north which will affect us. Its on the Fax charts as well, so Met Office seems to think it will happen. Will only bring a few cm's of snow but given the way snow is in the UK you can't really predict it until 24 hours out, so is a wait and see. Guess we will have an idea from tonight's 0z runs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

it could get interesting on the Wolds later ( a trip to Thixendale might be in order )

wolds4.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, cowdog said:

Personally I reckon Thursday won't happen, or won't be any significance.

Monday night / Tuesday even though it is going low it seems that it has a secondary front to its north which will affect us. Its on the Fax charts as well, so Met Office seems to think it will happen. Will only bring a few cm's of snow but given the way snow is in the UK you can't really predict it until 24 hours out, so is a wait and see. Guess we will have an idea from tonight's 0z runs.

There is very little doubt that Thursday will happen (no model run in about a week has failed to get the front here) however there is obviously every chance that it won't amount to much (though for now, it does like moisture is fairly abundant). 

With regards to Tuesday the low develops an obscure warm front as it deepens (not an issue for us since us since it waits a while before deepening) which looks like it probably won't produce much here (Sheffield may do better as the front gets more vorcity as the low deepens) but it will last most of the day thanks to the angle and movement so we should be looking at say 1-4cm away from the east coast with heavier falls perhaps in South Yorkshire and certainly further south east (at the very least, something to watch via the lamppost). 

71D93A09-7FF0-4112-A417-F66381AAC055.thu

16C72215-1987-4FDD-8ED3-D7AE184A9BCB.thu

Thursday is a little more interesting because instead of a secondary deepening when its already south of the UK we get a stronger primary low (more moisture, more vorcity, stronger undercut ahead) which weakens as it moves. This means that the front will thicker and the precipitation heavier for quite some time until the front starts to wane and fizzle. I would suggest that 5-9cm more widely is possible with even higher totals on the east facing Pennine areas above 200m (totals around Leeds-Bradford airport could be interesting). 

Models right now differ on the northward extent of the front because they differ in pressure. Right now the Met Office (on the basis of lasts nights run) have the front reaching the Central Belt of Scotland however that is based on last nights modelling which had a pressure of 967mb on the fax chart. This morning the UKMO and Euro both have ~980mb with the GFS closer to 970mb. The weaker the low, the further south the front will pivot w-e before it sinks and breaks. Where this pivot occurs (the northward extent band), the snow will stick around for longest. That's probably still north of Yorkshire as things stand. 

8851751B-5748-48C8-98A7-054D0AF3950C.png 

...

In short both events will not be especially memorable and places along the east coast are probably screwed and in both case height on the eastern Pennine slopes is probably best however as things stand Thursday looks the better bet and may well settle onto Tuesday's iced over snowfall (extracting the best accumulations where melt was slow on Wednesday) but most places will come out of Thursday with 5-15cm sat on the ground. There is probably equal upside potential from both. The stronger Tuesday's low transpires to be, the further north it's energy will be as it deepens meanwhile the initially weaker Thursday's low comes in, the longer it will snow. 

I will say that the weaker low on Thursday seems to come in later so for travel it is now Tuesday evening and Friday morning that are most problematic (the fronts arrive Tuesday PM and overnight Thursday). 

 

Edited by summer blizzard

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, sausage said:

why so quiet on here. i thought the 12zgfs looked for us!!

I think because most are brainwashed by the main cold/model threads constant harping on about the chance of snow in south east and southern england.. Making it seem like there the only areas at risk of snow.

The way I see it we have a chance of snow tuesday night into wednesday, non disruptive but would be nice to get a bit of a covering. 

Our main chance comes thursday night into friday I believe with potentially disruptive snow for us guys. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Interesting BBC Countryfile forecast for the week ahead for our region.  More was made of the event for Tuesday than is apparent on the 12z models.  And yet, the event for Thursday into Friday was barely mentioned with the precipitation shown only over Cornwall! 🤔🤪. Will be interesting to compare come the end of the week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Tuesday not looking to great for us at the moment, plenty of time for adjustments of course but the precip charts currently show the main snowfall either West or South East of us 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

cumon ecm send ot more north to us plz and mke friends with the gfs! not fair that thy shud hog all the snow. weve had zip all here!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...