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Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

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Just now, Craigers said:

Not to sure about that but the overall nature of the band has been different to forecast. Been better than expected for whole of Yorkshire 

Yes

wasn't expecting snow here this evening,i guess evaperative cooling played a part in the heavier burst's

was surprised,

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just had a trip up on the Yorkshire Wolds ( towards Kirby Underdale ) ......... first snowman of the season built

sotw1.jpeg

sotw2.jpeg

sotw3.jpeg

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15 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

just had a trip up on the Yorkshire Wolds ( towards Kirby Underdale ) ......... first snowman of the season built

sotw1.jpeg

sotw2.jpeg

sotw3.jpeg

Was up there last night when it was falling! Beautiful grippy snow for the winter tyres to sink into.

Went down to Thixendale and helped an old couple trying to get back to Pocklington, they had RWD Merc with summer tyres. 🤔

Heres all thats left of mine, hill in the distance holding on to good cover.

Preview_Camera1_01_20190119_102158_24270234.thumb.jpg.810528ff3aed9940fa90da1c28e640bc.jpg788140359_Preview_NorthView_01_20190119_102147_24259359.thumb.jpg.c2957006bc626e041826aa580f1f1d1d.jpg

 

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A lot of wrist slashing going on in the model thread. Looks like it’s game over....for the south east....😁😁.....

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Haha yes all forgetting that we have a cold week coming up with snow potential.

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2 hours ago, Sunny_AS said:

A lot of wrist slashing going on in the model thread. Looks like it’s game over....for the south east....😁😁.....

😂😂😂

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Problem with the model thread they keep taking T200 plus as gospel and never learn. The next possible event is Monday night into Tuesday with a rain to snow event. After that it looks fairly dry until Sunday 27th which may provide another shot of some snow but will need some evaporative cooling to help things along. By then temperatures will have returned to closer to normal values hence the need for evaporative cooling. However that's along way out and could well change to milder conditions overall if a new trend is being picked up.

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Next Friday is the 24th anniversary of the event back in Jan 1995. I wonder if this rain/snow event on Tuesday will see history repeat itself?

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Stelmer said:

Next Friday is the 24th anniversary of the event back in Jan 1995. I wonder if this rain/snow event on Tuesday will see history repeat itself?

 

 

nmmuk-1-67-0.png?19-12

Tuesdays event now in range of the NMM, here's its take on the event.

Looks good for much of Yorkshire, but likely to look different by the time it arrives. (hopefully upgrades)

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The GFS is overdoing the snow potential as it normally does for Monday evening, there is cross model agreement that the front will struggle to retain intensity over the pennines, a lack of intensity along with the uppers not undercutting quick enough is likely to result in transient back edge wet snow, I'd be very surprised if there is any lying snow on low ground, temporary accumulations over ground above 200m.

Edited by Cheese Rice

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The only caveat is the front could stall over the UK, I don't think the track is sorted yet, the models keep pushing its westward ascent further east.

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I wouldn't take much notice of the NMM it's not very accurate. GFS has the rain moving through before the cold air has a chance of the cold air digging in so it 'll be a rain event with temperatures dropping from a mild 4C to 5C to 1C to 2C after it's cleared. Sadly latest GFS seems to be following the ECM lead of a return to normal conditions. At the moment the best chance for more Snow is showers if they get over the moors during Tuesday afternoon. Not the best of runs but it's continuing the trend.

 

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Monday into tuesday still looking good still time for models to flip it was only a few days ago they was saying it was over then the modes showed what they wanted now changed ... the weather is unpredictable! 

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ECM throws a good run out. We will know for better Monday, Tuesday event. We just need the cold uppers to come in more quickly to save the night.

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13 minutes ago, The PIT said:

ECM throws a good run out. We will know for better Monday, Tuesday event. We just need the cold uppers to come in more quickly to save the night.

Is this for Monday's front? 

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Bit of an wintry mix here at the min few flakes falling dont expect it to amount to much apart from making the ground wet.

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Monday into Tuesday a subtle change brings the cold uppers into play so it looks a rain to snow event.

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Cold Hunt Models & Banter & Focused Model Discussion 

No wonder people get confused some saying good things are coming and fab charts and others saying poor, nothing coming!.....  

I'll stick to looking out the window!

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1 hour ago, LeeSnowFan said:

Cold Hunt Models & Banter & Focused Model Discussion 

No wonder people get confused some saying good things are coming and fab charts and others saying poor, nothing coming!.....  

I'll stick to looking out the window!

Yes it's difficult to follow.  Seems the consensus is it's going to be cold for quite a while but the Nirvana easterly is off the cards. 

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Im glad the hunt for cold thread is back, thats the one which is the busy one. The other thread is just quiet now so i just stick to that one and just pick my way through carefully. You know who to take notice of and who to ignore 🙂

For us, well, just seems like a milder blip next weekend, but only up to average and then back down again. Thats how its looking for now. Image below from GFS ensembles for South Yorkshire from this mornings run. You can see a cold week coming up, then a bit of a bump next weekend and then very cold after that into the start of Feb. Heres hoping!! The mean (red line) is pretty much ice days at the end of the month 😎❄️

1236935762_t2mSouthYorkshire.thumb.png.53469e710b07101b810dd2784ed68104.png

Edited by Winter Cold
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Over an inch in some parts up top of the North York moors, worth going up if you really want to see some snow like me 😁

lion 1.jpg

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18 minutes ago, Northerly Blast said:

Over an inch in some parts up top of the North York moors, worth going up if you really want to see some snow like me 😁

lion 1.jpg

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Great picture fingers crossed for Monday Night for West Yorkshire. 

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Well i was supposed to be staying off here for a while after the ups and downs of the Mod thread, but thats gone as wrong as the easterley 😂 

Hows it currently looking for monday night/tuesday for our region? 

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Well another dreary day!!! Mo looking at ten days away for any possible real cold ???

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Hirlam 12z looking much better for some parts of Yorkshire for the Mon evening / Tue morning event !

hir5.png

Edited by Jeremy Shockey

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