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Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Very cold/sunny, Snow, Hot/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley (100m ASL)

I'm sticking with views from the likes of Steve Murr, Nick Sussex, Nick L, Nick F, Chionomaniac and in particular Catacol, who has had this cold spell nailed for the last month.  His latest update as follows:

This is not going to breakdown on Friday. Anyone with any weather watching experience knows what is going to happen when that low hits the cold... and even if slightly milder uppers were pulled into the mix we are talking a temporary moderation to the heady heights of around -4 as per ECM but still off a continental feed which is a snowmaker. I see no breakdown at the end of the week at all. GFS run is a counter intuitive response. As Nick correctly said the other night - GFS has a well observed tendency to overblow these scenarios. We can happily debate whether it will hit and slide away over France... but push up through the flow with much milder air? More chance of Scotland winning the Rugby World Cup in 2019.

All are going for the low staying further South than modelled by GFS, and favouring ECM Southerly track. ??

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Posted
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL
  • Location: South Yorkshire Barnsley 66m ASL
30 minutes ago, Tinker Bell said:

At what range should we be able to view streamers pushing in ? Are we expecting the showers Monday evening? Thanks in advance. 

I find the faxes and charts somewhat confusing as I'm only learning. For anyone that hasn't viewed Jo farrows post about the lake effect it's certainly worth a read and very informative 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=0&map=330

This 2KM Res model is the one to watch  when it comes into range 

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)

UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Mar 2018 to Saturday 10 Mar 2018:

March will begin very cold with sunshine and snow showers, these continuing to bring some accumulations especially across eastern parts. Friday could see heavier and disruptive snow developing across southern and some central areas, combined with strong to gale force easterly winds, leading to blizzard conditions. However, there is a lot of uncertainty with this. Thereafter, it is likely to remain very cold through early March with further snow showers in the east and southeast. The best of the sunshine is likely in the west, but all areas will feel bitterly cold in strong winds with a significant wind chill. Overnight frost will be widespread and severe in places. At times, it may turn more unsettled and less cold across the west and southwest.

 

Yet people are still claiming a breakdown of the cold will be here come Friday?

Hmmmm who to believe?!  :rofl:

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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Posted
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold! Winter :)
  • Location: Maltby, Rotherham - 150m ASL

Well its great to see this thread busy over the last few days. Looks like it will be a fun week accross Yorkshire. Lets enjoy these special times, they dont come round too often :)

Lets just bask in this image from the 0z GFS 850s - almost unanimous agreement for -14/-15 uppers on the first day of meteorological spring!! One for the save folder that my friends... :friends:

5a915d614f65c_t850SouthYorkshire.thumb.png.7a6d88f9efeafdd5430c04ccc7a4ead4.png

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Posted
  • Location: Keighley, 180m ASL
  • Location: Keighley, 180m ASL

Maybe being a bit greedy, but ideally want the low of next week to track perfectly where it's north enough for us to see the snow, but yet without too much of a mild sector south of it. Probably isn't possible to get this...............

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Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow.
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)

Have to say it's beautiful out today. Strong sunshine, cold air. Lovely day. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield
51 minutes ago, SouthYorks said:

I'm sticking with views from the likes of Steve Murr, Nick Sussex, Nick L, Nick F, Chionomaniac and in particular Catacol, who has had this cold spell nailed for the last month.  His latest update as follows:

This is not going to breakdown on Friday. Anyone with any weather watching experience knows what is going to happen when that low hits the cold... and even if slightly milder uppers were pulled into the mix we are talking a temporary moderation to the heady heights of around -4 as per ECM but still off a continental feed which is a snowmaker. I see no breakdown at the end of the week at all. GFS run is a counter intuitive response. As Nick correctly said the other night - GFS has a well observed tendency to overblow these scenarios. We can happily debate whether it will hit and slide away over France... but push up through the flow with much milder air? More chance of Scotland winning the Rugby World Cup in 2019.

All are going for the low staying further South than modelled by GFS, and favouring ECM Southerly track. ??

Cue said breakdown happening but not in the way the MOD Thread was hoping for (i.e staying cold rather than getting any milder).

Edited by Weather26
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland, South Yorkshire 160m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: cold,snowy,frosty and thunderstorms
  • Location: Hoyland, South Yorkshire 160m ASL

metO just keep adding snow symbols for barnsley next week...loving it, im more used to them taking them away, not adding them ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
6 minutes ago, snow*please said:

metO just keep adding snow symbols for barnsley next week...loving it, im more used to them taking them away, not adding them ? 

Things are starting to get very exciting now ☺️ Let's hope this delivers for yorkshire. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland, South Yorkshire 160m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: cold,snowy,frosty and thunderstorms
  • Location: Hoyland, South Yorkshire 160m ASL
2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Things are starting to get very exciting now ☺️ Let's hope this delivers for yorkshire. 

It really is. Fingers crossed it doesn't turn into a total letdown, i think its deffo our regions turn this winter! Bring on the drift pics lol 

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Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow.
  • Location: Bramley, Leeds: 100m (328ft)
10 minutes ago, boyzie said:

Weather warnings for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday now for my area on metoffice.

Same here although I've the usual situation of looking at a day in question and seeing grey clouds all day. 

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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl

The 06z ARPEGE has the snow tracking through Yorkshire around 3am Tuesday, forming into a large band of snow a little later, stretching from Scotland, all the way to North Midlands. The weather front itself gives 2-5cm widely by 6am, Suppose 5cm possible widely

Screen Shot 2018-02-24 at 14.11.19.png

Screen Shot 2018-02-24 at 14.11.33.png

Screen Shot 2018-02-24 at 14.11.41.png

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Local forecast only showing proper snow for Friday light snow Monday to Wednesday. Briefly showed more organized Snow Tuesday lunchtime but now removed it. As ever wait and see. Today is showing how powerful the sun is. Nice and warm in the sun cold in the shade and breeze. This should lead to nice convection over the north sea. Hopefully won't see any weird behavior of the snow like melting when it's below zero. The only reason I can think of why that happened is that the snow was heavily polluted lowering the melting point. Any snow that falls should be dry and easy to shift Fridays may have a higher water content so will harder to shift.  

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2 hours ago, Barking_Mad said:

Have to say it's beautiful out today. Strong sunshine, cold air. Lovely day. 

You're not wrong! Been round Sheffield town today - seemed a little quiet but very nice conditions for having a casual shop around.

All change soon of course!

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Stunning 12z runs coming out with southern areas of our region at risk from Friday's low pressure system. Nothing marginal about it up here, either!

Even if we all end up being too far north for the LP we still have the easterlies strengthening ahead of the low and frequent snow showers piling in off the N Sea :)

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Posted
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl
  • Location: Barnsley 125asl
8 minutes ago, Reverse Zonality said:

Stunning 12z runs coming out with southern areas of our region at risk from Friday's low pressure system. Nothing marginal about it up here, either!

Even if we all end up being too far north for the LP we still have the easterlies strengthening ahead of the low and frequent snow showers piling in off the N Sea :)

so it's a win win! but still fridays low would be epic for part of our region me being in the south part! I'm excited! :) If the models are still showing the same by tuesday I can we can see its game on like the beast from the east was showing for over a week and continued on trend :) 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
9 minutes ago, Reverse Zonality said:

Stunning 12z runs coming out with southern areas of our region at risk from Friday's low pressure system. Nothing marginal about it up here, either!

Even if we all end up being too far north for the LP we still have the easterlies strengthening ahead of the low and frequent snow showers piling in off the N Sea :)

Yes UKMO has the southerners worrying but would be a big snow event here, lets hope it doesn't trend too far North in the coming runs.

Personally I would rather the low stays South to continue the North Sea snow machine, as per EC, but being 25 miles from the East coast that is IMBYism :D

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1 minute ago, LeeSnowFan said:

so it's a win win! but still fridays low would be epic for part of our region me being in the south part! I'm excited! :) If the models are still showing the same by tuesday I can we can see its game on like the beast from the east was showing for over a week and continued on trend :) 

What's pleasing to see is the GFS mixing out any milder uppers quite quickly, certainly quicker than the 6z meaning less marginality and it ties in historically in cold spells like this when the first low pressure tries and fails to push away the cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Ludford, 134M
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Ludford, 134M

Anyone else keep checking to see if any snow showers are bubbling up in the north sea early? The wait for Boris the Beast is killing me.

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